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苗苏:多国央行联手降息使中国房市调控更为棘手--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-07-14

  上周四,中国央行将将金融机构1年期贷款基准利率下调0.31个百分点至6%。同一天,欧洲央行、丹麦和肯尼亚央行也宣布下调基准利率,英国央行虽然没有降息但却将债券购买规模扩大500亿英镑(合780亿美元)至3750亿英镑,希望以此压低长期利率。仅仅五天之后,也就是本周三,北京海淀区万柳一个面积38870平方米的地块竞拍出了26.3亿元(合4.17亿美元)的高价,诞生了新的“楼王”。据估计,万柳地块的楼面价格达到了每平米人民币41500-45000元,完工后售价将达到每平米人民币70000元。

On Thursday,China's central bank will financial institutions one-year lending rate by 0.31% to 6%。On the same day,The European central bank、Denmark and Kenya central bank also announced the benchmark interest rate cut,The bank of England though not cut interest rates but will buy bonds enlarging the scale, 50 billion pounds($78 billion)To 375 billion pounds,Hope that this down long-term interest rates。Just five days later,Also this week is three,Beijing's haidian district wanliu a area of 38870 square meters of land auctions out of the 2.63 billion yuan($417 million)Of high prices,Was born the new“Floor wang”。An estimated,Wanliu plot to floor price per square RMB 41500-45000 yuan,After completion of the price will reach RMB 70000 yuan per square meter。

  多国央行联手降息与北京新“地王”诞生步调如此协调显然不仅仅只是时间上的巧合,考虑到房地产是一个高度受利率左右的市场,加息会打压房价而降息则会提振房价这已经成为常识。央行降息和多国联手推行宽松货币政策与北京新“地王”诞生背后或许有必然联系。虽然这笔土地交易不能代表整个市场行情,却无疑传达了明确的价格预期。

Many nations with the central bank cut interest rates and Beijing new“royal”So was born the pace is not only time coordination obviously the coincidence,Considering the real estate is a highly by the interest rates or so of the market,Rates could crack down on house prices will cut interest rates to boost prices which have become common sense。The central bank interest rate cuts and to implement many looser monetary policy and Beijing new“royal”Born may have necessarily linked behind。Although the land deal does not represent the entire market,But no doubt to convey the clear price expectations。

  本周三和周四又有两个国家央行意外宣布降息:巴西央行周三将基准Selic利率下调0.5个百分点,至8.0%的历史最低水平。韩国央行周四也出人意料地将基准利率下调25个基点至3.00%。这是韩国央行自2009年2月份减息50个基点以来首次降息。最近两个月以来,货币政策转向宽松的国家还有印度、澳大利亚、日本、越南、以色列和印度尼西亚等。如果美联储在本月底举行的议息会议上也释放出宽松信号,全球货币政策将出现新一轮宽松浪潮。有分析预测,如果中国经济减速超预期,中国央行可能会再次降息。这无疑将会对房市调控构成巨大压力。

This week on Thursday and two national central bank announced accident cut interest rates:The Brazilian central bank benchmark interest rates on Wednesday Selic 0.5%,To 8.0% of the minimum level of history。The bank of Korea on Thursday after unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%。This is the bank of Korea since February 2009 interest rates for the first time since 50 basis points cut interest rates。Recently the two months since,Monetary policy to loose the country still has India、Australia、Japan、Vietnam、Israel and Indonesia, etc。If the federal reserve held interest rates at the end of this month to negotiate meeting also release a loose signal,Global monetary policy will be a new wave of loose。Analysis and prediction of a,If China's economy than expected slowdown,China's central bank is likely to cut interest rates again。This no doubt will housing form huge pressure control。

  在实施了两年的紧缩政策之后,近几个月来中国采取了某些宽松举措,部份城市房地产销售随之开始回暖。今年中国已经连续两次降息,头一次是在6月8日,最近这次是在7月6日。

In the implementation of the two years after tightening policy,In the last several months China has taken some loose move,Part of the urban real estate sales then begin to thaw。This year China has two successive to cut interest rates,The first is in June 8,The latest is in July 6,。

  事实上,随着货币政策转向宽松中国房地产市场在蛰伏了几个月之后又开始蠢蠢欲动。中国房地产指数系统(China Real Estate Index System)周一发布的数据显示,6月份中国的100个主要城市的平均房价上涨了0.05%,至人民币8688元/平米。房市反弹已经呼之欲出。

In fact,As monetary policy loose to China's real estate market in the brewing for a few months later began to move。China real estate index system(China Real Estate Index System)Statistics released Monday,China in June of 100 major cities of the average house prices rose 0.05%,To RMB 8688 yuan/m2。Housing rebound has be vividly portrayed。

  从某种程度上说,房地产市场已经成为中国经济的主要支柱,维持房市平稳对社会稳定至关重要。中国房价上涨,是一连串因素的结果,与城市化、人口结构、经济发展、自有住房率偏高乃至货币供给等等因素都息息相关。但是房价持续大幅上涨显然也会带来负面影响。房价高高在上不仅加大了中下阶层的痛苦指数,也透支了不少年轻人的梦想。很显然,房市调控对中国不仅是经济问题也是社会问题。

To a certain extent,The real estate market has become the mainstay of the Chinese economy,Maintain stable housing to social stability is very important。China's rising house prices,Is the result of a series of factors,And urbanization、Population structure、Economic development、Its occupancy is on the high side and the money supply and so on factors are closely bound up。But house prices rose sharply last apparently also can bring negative effect。House prices on high not only increases the lower classes pain index,Also many young overdraw dream。obviously,The housing market controls for China is not only economic problem is also a social problem。

  在传统西方经济学理论里,住房被当作一种资本品来看待,而资本品的价格则是由资本收益和利率来决定。具体到房屋上来说,理论上房屋的价格是房租收益与当前利率的比值。如果利率下调,房屋价格上涨几乎是一种必然的结果。过去五六年中国房价扶摇直上就与实际利率水平超低有很大关系,而屡次房地产调控都没能从根本上扭转房价上涨势头超低利率也重要原因之一。笔者认为,在多国央行联手降息和推行新宽松政策的背景下,中国房地产调控将面临巨大挑战。

In the traditional western economics theory,Housing is used as a capital goods to look at,And the price of capital goods is determined by the capital gains and interest rates to decide。Specific to the house for,The price of the house is the rent in income and the ratio of current interest rates。If interest rates,House prices is almost a kind of inevitable result。The past five or six years in China and house prices soaring in the actual interest rates low has the very big relations,And real estate regulation could not often fundamentally reverse the momentum and ultra-low interest rates rising house prices the important reasons。The author thinks that,Central Banks cut interest rates in many nations joined and push new loose policy background,China real estate regulation will face huge challenges。



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