2012年上半年结束，济南楼市逐渐从年初的成交低谷中走出。尽管经历过春节期间“零成交”的尴尬开局，但是“小阳春”里压抑许久的刚需大爆发，金三银四的回暖趋势继而得到延续，“红五月”成交量突破5700套，六月楼市“淡季不淡”轻松成交5000套，种种迹象显示，“以价换量”正在帮助济南楼市走出低谷，踏上回暖之路。

In the first half of 2012 over，Jinan property market gradually from the low in the early clinch a deal out of。Although experienced during the Spring Festival“Zero clinch a deal”Awkward start，but“Indian summer”In the long to suppress just outbreak，Four establishments of buoyancy and trend has continued，“Red may”Volume reached 5700 sets，June property market“Off-season don't light”Easy to clinch a deal of 5000，Various signs，“To change the price of”Jinan property market is helping went out of whack，On road of the thaw。

　　济南楼市上半年

Jinan property market the first half of the year

　　共成交26534套

Clinch a deal with 26534 sets

　　根据济南住宅与房地产信息网数据加总，2012年1-6月份济南楼市共成交新建商品房26534套；较之于2011年1-6月份济南新建商品房成交38933套，减少12399套，降幅约为32%。其中，今年上半年济南楼市商品住宅成交16970套，占总成交量的64%；较之于2011年上半年济南楼市商品住宅成交25036套，减少8066套，下降约32%。此外，今年上半年济南楼市办公写字楼成交596套，商业用房666套，公寓359套。

According to jinan and real estate information net house data aggregation，2012 1-June jinan of new commodity house property market clinch a deal of 26534；During the 2011-1 in June 38933 sets of jinan new commodity house to clinch a deal，Reduce 12399 set，Decline about 32%。Among them，In the first half of this year the jinan property market clinch a deal the commodity residential house of 16970，Accounting for 64% of the total volume；During the first half of 2011 the commodity residential house property market jinan clinch a deal of 25036，Reduce 8066 set，Drop about 32%。In addition，In the first half of this year jinan office property market clinch a deal of 596，Commercial housing 666 sets，Apartment 359 sets。

　　业内人士分析，从以上数据的变化中可以看出，济南房地产调控成效在成交量上还有所显现，投资性需求得到了有效地抑制，在开发商“以价换量”的策略下，刚需入市，在很大程度上促使成交量的稳步回升。虽然相对于2011年上半年，2012年上半年成交量下滑幅度较大，但是上半年市场整体趋于稳定，自3月份以来连续4个月商品住宅成交量一直稳定在3000-4000套区间内。一些楼盘采取低价入市以赢取市场，则说明市场刚性需求的强烈。

Analysis of the personage inside course of，From the above data changes can be seen，Jinan real estate regulation has also appeared in volume by，The investment demand got restrain effectively，In the developers“To change the price of”Strategy under，Just need to entering the market，In the very great degree of volume steadily to bounce back。Although relative to the first half of 2011，In the first half of 2012 volume fell to a larger extent，But when the markets overall be more stable，Since since march for four months, the volume of commodity residential house has been stable in 3000-4000 set of interval。Some buildings to win the market with low entry，Show the market demand of strong rigidity。

　　上半年成交量的回升也与开发商积极推盘有着很大关系。据山东中原地产统计，四、五月开发商推盘积极，上市开盘或加推项目达到12个，但与去年同期不同，开发商多采取“少量多批”的推盘模式，如万象新天、鲁能领秀城、凡尔赛公馆、鑫苑名家、凯旋新城等，都保持着至少每月一次的加推频率。

Back in the first half of the trading volume with the developers actively push plate also has a lot to do。According to shandong centaline property statistics，four、Developers may push dish positive，Open quotation or addition push project listed to 12，But different with the same period last year，Developers to take more“More than a small amount of”Push dish mode，Such as the new heavens and the host、Luneng brought show city、Versailles residence、Xin estates famous、Triumphant new town, etc，Keeping a at least once a month and push the frequency。

　　进入6月，受央行降息的影响，加之各地楼市微调不断，部分购房者心态发生变化，有经验的购房者在这种环境下提前了购房时间，导致市场继续回暖。6月份原本是楼市的淡季，但是济南楼市成交量仍然轻松突破5000套，表现出持续回暖的势头。

Into June，Central Banks cut interest rates by the impact，And the market continuously all fine-tuning，Part of the person that buy a house mentality change，Have experience in this environment of the person that buy a house ahead of time that buy a house，Lead to market continue to thaw。In June, the property market is originally off-season，But jinan property market turnover still easily reached 5000 sets，Show the trend of sustained progress。

　　成交均价

The price

　　稳降至7字开头阶段

Steady fall to 7 word at this stage

　　在持续了1年多的楼市政策调控后，济南房价已由过去的上涨向目前的理性平稳方向发展。

In the last more than a year's housing policy regulation，Jinan has been made over the past rising house prices to the rational development smoothly。

　　根据国家统计局公布的七十个大中城市住宅销售价格指数显示：2012年1-5月济南新建住宅价格指数除2月份环比上涨0.1%外，其余4个月环比均有所下降。与去年同月相比，今年济南新建住宅价格指数同比回落的月份有3、4、5月份，分别回落0.5%、1.6%、1.9%。通过数据，不难发现今年上半年济南住宅销售价格已有所下滑，济南房地产调控已经对房价产生了明显影响。

According to the national bureau of statistics released the seventy large and medium-sized city residential sales price index showed：2012 1-5 month jinan new residence price index rose 0.1% in February the annulus，The other four y/y all fell。Compared with the same month last year，This year the jinan new residence price index fell back up the months have 3、4、In may，A drop of 0.5% respectively、1.6%、1.9%。Through the data，It is not difficult to find that in the first half of this year the jinan house prices have dropped，Jinan real estate prices to control has greatly influenced。

　　据山东中原地产统计数据显示，2012年1-5月，济南商品住宅成交均价总体呈平稳走势，成交均价已稳降至7字开头阶段。2011年济南商品住宅成交均价达到8538元/平方米，而2012年上半年除1月份商品住宅成交均价为8036元/平方米外，2、3、4、5月整体市场成交均价均为7字开头价位，分别是7324元/平方米、7775元/平方米、7792元/平方米、7876元/平方米。

According to the real estate statistics of shandong province，2012 1-5 months，Jinan commodity residential house the price be a smooth general trend，The price has dropped to seven words instability at this stage。In 2011, jinan commodity residential house the price reached 8538 yuan/square metre，And in the first half of 2012 in addition to the commodity residential house in January the price for 8036 yuan/square metre outside，2、3、4、May the overall market the price for all seven words beginning price，Respectively is 7324 yuan/square metre、7775 yuan/square metre、7792 yuan/square metre、7876 yuan/square metre。

　　宏观调控下，刚需成为目前济南楼市绝对的购买主力。 由于国家调控的持续发威，面对年初低迷的销售量，开发商迫于政策、库存及资金的巨大压力，进而采取了各种促销、打折等优惠活动来吸引刚需人群入市。伴随着开发商打折促销力度的加大，部分楼盘的均价有所下降，加之银行各种信贷政策的松动，首次置业的购房人群获得了更多的资金支持。在市场多重利好因素的刺激下，刚需逐渐得到释放，拉动了济南楼市的成交量。年初以来，成交的楼盘多为刚需盘，在一定程度上拉低了上半年的成交均价。

Under macro adjustment，Just need to become the property of the main absolute jinan purchase。 Due to the continuous state regulation punches，Facing the early sales downturn，Developers are under policies、Inventory and capital pressure，Then take the various sales promotion、A discount on discount activity to attract people just need to market。With developers offered discounts intensified efforts，Part of the building dish average price declines，Together with the bank credit policy of loose，First-time home buyers purchase of the people have more financial support。In the market multiple positive factors stimulating，Just need to release gradually，Pull the jinan in the volume of sales market。Since the beginning of，Clinch a deal for more than just building to disk，To a certain extent down the price for the first half of the year。

　　“上半年济南楼市成交均价的下降既有原有房源的降价促销，也包含新项目的低价入市。在调控政策下，济南房地产市场价格体系已经从8字开头正式降至7字开头阶段，这一价格体系也逐步接近购房者的心理价格预期。”专家表示。

“The price of the property market in the first half of jinan down both the original houses depreciate sales promotion，Also includes new projects of the low market。In the regulation under the policy，Jinan real estate market price system has 8 words beginning from formal down to seven words at this stage，The price system also gradually close to home buyers psychological price expectations。”Experts say。

　　下半年房价将趋于平稳？

That the prices would stabilize in the second half？

　　上半年济南楼市回暖已成趋势，下半年该何去何从，房价会大幅反弹还是稳中有降，成为人人关注的焦点。

Jinan property market warms up in the first half has become a trend，The second half of where to go，House prices will rebound sharply or stability have fall，Become a focus。

　　从下半年的楼市环境看，近期，国务院、住建部、银监会等纷纷表态，重申坚持房地产调控不放松，因此，宏观调控的作用仍将持续影响下半年的济南楼市，限购仍将继续，房价大幅上涨的可能性不大。

From the second half of the property market environment look，recent，The state council、Live JianBu、CBRC statement in succession，Don't relax regulation to reiterate real estate，so，The function of macro-control effect will continue in the second half of the jinan in the sector，限购 will continue，House prices are likely to rise sharply。

　　同时，下半年济南房价大幅下降可能性同样不大，预计房价将趋于平稳。虽然上半年济南楼市成交回暖，在一定程度上缓解了开发商资金紧张的状况，但是成交多集中于部分楼盘，大多数开发商的资金、库存问题仍没有得到真正解决。经过上半年降价而形成成交量回升的实战经验显示，适当降价成为撬动成交量的直接原因，因此，对于部分资金偏紧的开发商而言，继续降价也许是不错的选择，但在成交量已经回升、购房者积极性上升的情况下，降价行为会明显收敛。因此，在成交量回暖的支撑下，预计下半年济南房价降价行为或许会比较于上半年有所放缓；即使开发商酝酿降价行为，降幅也会较上半年有所减小。

At the same time，Jinan house prices fell sharply in the second half as likely not much，Expected prices to would stabilize。Although jinan property market in the first half of reverting to clinch a deal，Some relief funds of the developer of the situation，But more focused on part of the building to clinch a deal，Most developers of funds、Inventory problem is still not really get solved。In the first half and the formation of price after volume of actual combat experience shows back，Appropriate price cut become move the direct reason for volume，so，For some money tight of developers，Continue to depreciate perhaps is a good choice，But in volume has come back、The person that buy a house rising enthusiasm，Price cut behavior will be clearly convergence。so，The support in volume thaw，The second half of house prices is expected to jinan price behavior it will probably be more than the first half a slow down；Even if developers price brewing behavior，In the first half of a drop will also reduced。

　　从下半年楼市的需求看，就购房者而言，经过上半年的降价，济南楼市逐渐活跃起来，部分楼盘的均价已接近购房者的心理价格预期，这充分激发了部分购房者的购买欲望，购房积极性明显上升；而经过3月以来楼市大幅度成交量的上升后，意向购房者对未来楼市发展的判断从下跌趋向平稳甚至上扬，因此，购房欲望更为急迫，而这一心态将会在下半年继续呈现。在房价保持平稳或小幅下降的前提下，下半年预计购房者需求还有一轮爆发。

Since the second half of the housing demand to see，Is the person that buy a house in，After the first half price，Jinan property market gradually get active，Part of the building has been close to the average price of the person that buy a house psychological price expectations，This fully arouse the part of the person that buy a house purchase desire，Purchase enthusiasm enhanced obviously；And after three months after rising volume market greatly，Intention for the future development of the person that buy a house property market the judgment of the fall flat or up from the trend，so，Buy more urgent desire，And this will be in the second half of a mentality continued to。In house prices remain stable or a small drop premise，The second half of the person that buy a house is expected to demand and round outbreaks。

　　刘龙龙

LiuLongLong