导报记者 赵婷 济南报道

Herald reporter ZhaoTing jinan reported

　　7日，温家宝总理在江苏省常州市调研时强调，目前房地产市场调控仍然处在关键时期，调控任务还很艰巨。必须坚定不移做好调控工作，把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策。

7，Prime minister wen jiabao stressed in changzhou, jiangsu province investigation，Real estate market regulation is still in critical period，Regulation is very arduous task。Must unswervingly well control work，The inhibition of the investment real estate speculation needs as a long-term policy。

　　“未来一段时间，房价很难再快速上涨。当前房价快速上涨的条件并不充分，刚需市场不会过快拉动房价。”8日，山东大学经济学院副院长、房地产研究中心主任、导报特约评论员李铁岗教授，接受经济导报记者采访时表示。个别楼盘涨不算涨

“The future for a period of time，House prices is hard to rise quickly。The current house prices rise quickly conditions is not fully，Just need to market too won't pull of house prices。”8，Shandong university, vice President of the school of economics、Real estate, director of the research center、Special offer LiTieGang commentators professor，Accept economic herald reporter to interview said。Individual building dish up not rise

　　温总理说，今年二季度全国主要监测城市的地价出现环比微升。6月份，一些城市新建住宅的价格出现环比上涨。目前，房地产市场信息比较混乱，市场对房价走势的预测也出现一些变化，群众普遍担心房价反弹，必须进一步坚定不移地搞好调控工作。

Wen said，In the second quarter of this year the main monitoring of city land price appear annulus comparing edged。June，Some city new residence price appear annulus comparing to rise。At present，The real estate market information chaos，The market to the house predictions also appear some changes，The widespread concern about house prices rebound，We must further unswervingly do well control work。

　　事实上，担心房价反弹，也正是济南市民孔鑫的一块心病。

In fact，Worry about house prices rebound，It is also KongXin jinan citizens of a broken heart。

　　“等等，再等等，没准还能再降一些。”抱着这样的买房心态，孔鑫从准备买房到现在已有一年之久，几乎看遍了济南所有的楼盘。

“, etc，wait，Perhaps more can send some。”Cling to the mind to buy a house，KongXin from for a house to have now for one year，Almost read all buildings of jinan。

　　但是，决心“再抻一抻开发商”的她近期却有点坐不住了。“济南的房地产市场似乎有回暖的趋势。”8日，她担忧地对导报记者说，“最近一两个月，不断接到新盘认筹的短信，济南几处空地也开始动工开发了。这是不是房地产市场形势好转，房地产开发商又开始行动了？”

but，Determined to“Due to a due to developers”She recently but a little bit to sit still。“Jinan's real estate market seems to have warmed trend。”8，She worries to herald reporter said，“Recently a month or two，To get XinPan constantly recognize text message，Jinan several space also begin construction development。This is the real estate market conditions improve，Real estate developers and started to move？”

　　导报记者了解到，位于经十东路的南益·名士豪庭29号楼从6月份开始认筹。“均价为1万元/平方米。”售楼处工作人员向导报记者表示。而在4月份开盘的31号楼，在认筹时售楼处报出的均价则是8200元/平方米。

Herald the reporter understands，Located in the east road through ten South Asia · brilliant court house building no. 29 in June began to recognize raise。“Average price for 10000 yuan/square metre。”Sales department staff to herald reporter said。And in April of the opening of the building no. 31，When that raise sales offices in present average is 8200 yuan/square metre。

　　“济南的某几个楼盘的开盘价格并不能代表房价整体走势，每个楼盘价格都受各种因素影响，不能简单说是房价涨了还是跌了。”李铁岗表示，近期集中开盘或缘于开发商对市场不同预期的变化，一些体量小的本地房产企业的投机营销行为，甚至与房价整体走势相悖，不能以此判定房价是否上涨。

“A few of the buildings of jinan open quotation price does not represent the whole house price movements，Each estate prices are affected by various factors influence，Can't say simple rose or falling house prices。”LiTieGang said，The recent focus on open quotation or due to market expectations of different developers changes，Some small local real estate enterprise size of speculative marketing behavior，Even with house prices overall trends personality，Can't use this judgement if house prices rise。

　　“房价不会大幅上涨。”李铁岗表示，当前整体的宏观调控环境没有变化，政府的调控政策也没有变化。同时，供给比例也没有大的变动，投机行为被限购政策挡在门外。宏观经济增长缓慢也难以支撑房价的走高。“综合多个因素来看，房价不存在向上冲的动力。”

“Prices do not rise sharply。”LiTieGang said，The current macroeconomic regulation and control of the whole environment without change，The government's control policy has not changed。At the same time，Supply proportion also no big changes，Speculation is 限购 policy block at the door outside。Macro economic growth can also be difficult to support the prices of slow going higher。“Comprehensive multiple factors and see，House prices do not exist to push up power。”

　　“对于单个楼盘，有20%到30%的价格波动是正常的。”李铁岗表示。正常市场应当交易活跃

“For a single building dish，20% to 30% of the price volatility is normal。”LiTieGang said。Normal market transaction shall be active

　　温总理强调，要继续坚决抑制投机投资性需求。继续严格实施差别化住房信贷、税收政策和住房限购措施，加强市场监管。

The premier stressed，To continue firmly suppress speculative investment demand。Continue to strictly implement differentiation housing credit、Tax policy and housing 限购 measures，To strengthen the market supervision。

　　然而，在限购令将投机需求挡在门外的同时，近期不低的成交量，也让消费者担心楼市回暖。

however，In 限购 make will demand on the door block speculation at the same time，Recent not low volume，Also let consumers worry about property market buoyancy。

　　业内人士分析，受央行降息等货币政策刺激，以及开发商“以价换量”策略吸引，自住购房需求正在释放，支撑了本轮成交放量。

Analysis of the personage inside course of，Central Banks cut interest rates by such as monetary policy stimulation，And developers“To change the price of”Strategies to attract，Live from the pent-up demand is released，Support this rare clinch a deal。

　　“事实上，刚需不会过快拉动房价。”李铁岗认为，房价过快上涨与投机性需求有关，刚需市场的旺盛不会引起房价过度上涨。刚需对商品房的需求在20年、30年之内都是可以预期的，可预期的量不会对房价造成突然冲击。

“In fact，Just need not too quickly pull of house prices。”LiTieGang think，Overheating in housing prices and the speculative demand relevant，Just need to market will not cause excessive rising house prices exuberant。Just need to the needs of the commodity house in 20 years、30 years can be expected，Of the expected amount of house prices won't caused a shock。

　　在李铁岗看来，房地产市场并非没有开盘、没有交易量就是好的，正常的房地产市场应当交易活跃、参与度高，只是不能让价格过快增长。“开盘、促销都是正常现象，没有交易的房地产市场才不正常。”

In LiTieGang seems，The real estate market is not no open quotation、No volume is good，Normal real estate market transactions active shall be、High participation，Just can't let prices too fast growth。“opened、Promotion is normal phenomenon，No deal in the real estate market can't normal。”

　　“对房价走势的判断，不能只看几个楼盘，要看全国市场大的趋势，以及和济南相似的二线城市的房价走势，还有全国一线房地产开发商是否增加供应量等。”李铁岗说。

“The judgment of the trend of prices，Can not only see a few buildings，To see the national market big trend，And the second line similar and jinan city house price movements，And the national a line real estate developers whether to increase supply, etc。”LiTieGang said。