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非对称降息利好地产利空银行--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2012-07-16
7月6日,央行非对称下调一年期存贷款利率。受此影响,当日地产板块涨幅居前,四只地产股集体涨停的同时,招保万金等主流地产股纷纷放量大涨。同时,当日银行股以整体下跌来回应利率市场化改革和密集的降息。
On July 6,Central Banks cut interest rate the asymmetric。Affected by this,On that day real estate sector or the first,Four of the collective property counters were also harden,Called the gold in major property counters were rare in succession issuance。At the same time,Bank stocks fell on the day of the overall response to interest rate marketization reform and dense to cut interest rates。
地产板块有望延续上升趋势
Real estate sector is expected to continue rising
投资者对降息效果的预期在A股市场上得到体现。从行业表现看,上周五酿酒行业、房地产和券商信托是涨幅最大的前三个行业,其中酿酒行业大涨4.62%,房地产涨3.15%,券商信托板块涨3.07%。
Investors cut interest rates to the expected effect in a-share market, be reflected。Look from industry performance,Liquor-making industry last Friday、Real estate brokers and trust is the biggest increase in the first three industries,Which wine industry rose 4.62%,Real estate rose 3.15%,Brokers trust sector rose 3.07%。
从个股看,房地产板块中湖南投资(000548,股吧)、合肥城建(002208,股吧)、上海新梅(600732,股吧)、大名城(600094,股吧)四只个股涨停,地产龙头中万科A上涨3.88%,招商地产(000024,股吧)涨4.99%,保利地产(600048,股吧)和金地集团(600383,股吧)涨幅则超过5%。
Individual stocks look from,Real estate plate of hunan investment(000548,Shares it)、Hefei city building(002208,Shares it)、Shanghai new may(600732,Shares it)、Big city(600094,Shares it)Four stocks harden,Real estate in A leading vanke rose 3.88%,Investment real estate(000024,Shares it)Up 4.99%,Poly real estate(600048,Shares it)And ltd.gemdale corporation(600383,Shares it)Or is more than 5%。
其中,龙头股万科A当日收盘价不但创下年内新高,达到6.65元。而且该股成交量也创下年内第二高,达到1.65亿股。值得一提的是,年内单日成交量的最高点在2月10日所创下,成交量明显增大之后,万科A股价迎来一波快速拉升行情。
Among them,Leading shares A day not only set A closing price vanke year highs,6.65 yuan。And the stock volume also set years second high,By 165 million strands of。It is,The highest point of the volume of its years in February 10 in,Volume after increased obviously,China vanke A share price have A quick pull litre market wave。
地产板块被认为是此次降息受益最为确定的板块。国泰君安认为,持续降息有利于恢复地产实际购买力,更重要的是可彻底扭转购房者的观望情绪,持续托升销量。在货币信贷持续宽松的环境下,刚需入市预期稳定,改善性需求也将逐步入市,销量持续向好明确。地产股上行趋势仍将持续。
Real estate plate is considered to be the most certain plate benefit cut interest rates。Cathay Pacific hand to think,Continue to restore real estate actual purchasing power to cut interest rates,More important is the person that buy a house can completely reverse the wait-and-see mood,"Continued sales rise。In the currency credit for free environment,Just need to entering the market expected stability,Improve sex demand will also be gradually entering the market,Sales hold up well clear。Upward trend with property will continue。
东方证券认为,在地产股上涨行情中,一阶段主要来自政策放松的驱动,二阶段主要来自房价止跌后的量价共同驱动(代表企业盈利能力的改善)。目前看,地产股预期将进入上涨的第二阶段,地产股远未运行到顶。
Orient securities think,Rise in prices in the sector,A stage from the main policy relax drive,Second stage mainly from house prices after the reason quantity and price of common driver(On behalf of the enterprise to improve profitability)。Now look at,With property is expected to rise in the second stage,Property counters were far from reach the operation。
进入地产股上涨第二阶段后,市场将更加关注企业盈利能力的变化,销售、业绩确定性将更加重要。一线建议关注万科A、保利地产、招商地产。二线龙头建议关注中南建设(000961,股吧)、荣盛发展(002146,股吧)、首开股份(600376,股吧)。
In the second stage property counters were rising,The market will pay more attention to the enterprise profitability of change,sales、The uncertainty performance will be more important。A line on China vanke A suggestion、Poly real estate、Investment real estate。Second line leading suggest attention zhongnan construction(000961,Shares it)、Rongsheng development(002146,Shares it)、First open shares(600376,Shares it)。
银行股短期关注中报行情
Bank shares on short-term market center daily news
银行股则是普遍认为受到利空影响的行业。当日两市16只银行股中14只下跌,2只收平。整个银行板块跌幅为0.75%,是当日唯一出现整体下跌的行业板块。
Bank stocks is generally thought that the industry by bad influence。On that day, only two 16 bank stocks fell in only 14,2 only accept flat。The whole banking sector fell 0.75%,Is the same day the only appears falling industry overall plates。
其中,招商银行(600036,股吧)居银行板块跌幅第一,下跌2.58%,华夏银行(600015,股吧)、浦发银行(600000,股吧)跌幅均超过1%,而且股价均创下近期新低。统计显示,当日银行板块主力资金净流出4.84亿元,居各板块之首。
Among them,China merchants bank(600036,Shares it)The first decline in the bank sector,Fall 2.58%,Huaxia bank(600015,Shares it)、Shanghai pudong development bank(600000,Shares it)Fall by more than 1%,And a recent share price are low。Statistics show that,The central main fund net outflows plate 484 million yuan,Each of the plate。
信达证券指出,考虑各种期限的资产负债结构对净息差的影响、净利息转化为税前利润的比率,以及实际所得税率等等因素,进行测算,降息后商业银行的净利润总额大致会减少1.88个百分点。
Cinda securities points out that,Consider various term of the assets and liabilities structure on the influence of the net spreads、Net interest into profit before tax rate,And the actual income tax rates and so on factors,To measure,After the cut interest rates of commercial Banks will reduce the total net profit roughly 1.88%。
业内人士指出,此次不对称降息导致商业银行的存贷款利差从此前的最大2.104%进一步缩窄至不足1%,这无疑进一步体现出推进利率市场化改革的决心。同时,银行存贷款利率再次收窄将继续压缩银行的利润空间,使得银行间的业务竞争进一步加剧,同时迫使银行继续大力发展中间业务。
Industry insiders point,The asymmetry in the commercial bank interest rate cut from the maximum 2.104% interest after further erode to less than 1%,This no doubt further reflects promote market-oriented interest rate reform, the determination。At the same time,Bank interest rate again narrow will continue to compression of the bank profit space,Make the Banks of competition between business further intensified,At the same time forcing Banks to go on to develop intermediary business。
海通证券(600837,股吧)认为,降息时点和方式超市场预期,对银行股偏利空。贷款利率下浮范围延伸至7折,表明高层对利率市场化的决心和让银行反哺经济的态度。利率市场化推进,传统业务为主的银行受损较大。未来,银行之间估值会继续拉开。以对公大客户贷款传统业务为主的银行估值持续趋弱;在小企业贷款、零售银行和金融创新等方面有优势的银行估值有提升空间。
Haitong securities(600837,Shares it)think,At the rate cut way and market expectations,Bank stocks of partial bad。Lending rates range extending to the past 7 fold,Show that directors of the liberalization of interest rate determination and let the bank of regurgitation feeding economic attitude。Interest rate marketization propulsion,Traditional business mainly damaged large bank。future,The bank will continue to open between valuations。Public big customer loans with traditional business primarily bank continued weakness.the valuations;In the small business loans、Retail Banks and financial innovation has the advantage of bank promotion valuations space。
平安证券认为,年内仍有再次降息的可能,在降息预期下,银行板块估值上行空间有限,但同时板块估值已至极低水平,安全边际充足,7、8 月间在中报行情推动下,交易性机会明显,重点推荐南京银行(601009,股吧)、兴业银行(601166,股吧)、交通银行(601328,股吧)。
Peace securities think,Years may still have cut interest rates again,Rose on expectations,Bank plate valuations uplink space is limited,But at the same time plate has been extremely low level valuation,Safety marginal enough,7、In August in the center daily news pushed prices,Sex trade opportunities obvious,The key recommendation nanjing bank(601009,Shares it)、Industrial bank(601166,Shares it)、Traffic bank(601328,Shares it)。
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