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数据很低迷 很难说楼市已经“真回暖”了--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-07-19

  2012年上半年昆明成交地块54宗,成交面积1577599.99平方米,折合约2366.39亩,与2011年上半年相比同比下降88.5%;成交总额为1087662.69万元,与2011年上半年相比同比下降68%。

In the first half of 2012,Kunming clinch a deal the plot 54 cases,Clinch a deal the area of 1577599.99 square meters,Or about 2366.39 acres,In the first half of 2011, compared with 88.5% year-on-year drop;Clinch a deal amount is 10.8766269 billion yuan,In the first half of 2011, compared with 68% year-on-year drop。

  2012年上半年,昆明楼市共累计成交各类商品房34241套,成交面积2797059.78平方米。与2011年上半年同期相比,成交套数减少了6609套,降幅为16.18%,成交面积减少651040.22平方米,降幅为18.88%。

In the first half of 2012,Kunming of accumulative total of of all kinds commodity house property market clinch a deal of 34241,Clinch a deal the area of 2797059.78 square meters。In the first half of 2011 compared with the same period,Reduce the cycle of 6609 sets clinch a deal,Decreased by 16.18%,Clinch a deal the decrease of 651040.22 square meters,Decreased by 18.88%。

  2012年上半年,昆明二手房成交同比去年上半年变化不大,总体成交量依旧低位运行。房价降幅约在10%左右,最主要的表现形式主要是在议价空间的放大。

In the first half of 2012,Kunming clinch a deal in the first half year-on-year secondhand the room last year a little change,Overall, the volume of still run low。House prices decline about at about 10%,The main form of mainly in the negotiation of the space amplification。

  6月,各地楼市成交量回升的“捷报”频繁出现,给上半年楼市画出了一个完美的句号。昆明楼市成交量的回升来得更早一些:5月单月的成交量创下了今年上半年成交量的最高峰,达到了8656套,给市场留下了一个美好的期待。6月,成交量又开始回落。

June,All over the resilience of the property market turnover“proud”frequent,In the first half of the property market to draw a perfect end。Kunming property market turnover recovery had come earlier:The month of may set the record of the volume in the first half of this year the highest peak of volume,To reach 8656 sets,To the market left a better expectations。June,Volume and fell。

  在本轮调控中,昆明楼市还是很坚挺。房价在今年上半年出现局部回调,但这并没有形成持续的冲击波,时至今日,昆明房价仍然在坚守,局部的房价仍有提升冲动。

In the current round of regulation,Kunming property market is still very strong。House prices in the first half of this year appear local callback,But this does not create sustainable shock wave,today,Kunming house prices are still in the hold,Local home prices are still have ascension impulse。

前锋(三级市场) striker(3 class market)

  二手房成交低迷 租赁支撑生存

Housing downturn clinch a deal the lease support survive

  赛场竞技:有了土地市场的后卫支持,二级市场的承上启下,作为房地产交易末端的前锋无疑将起到一锤定音的作用,许多精彩正源于此。但在总规则严卡的背景下,三级市场即二手楼市在上半年的表现同样低迷。

Competitive game:Have the land market defender support,The secondary market link,As real estate trade will undoubtedly play a forward at the end of the final effect,Many wonderful is comes from this。But in total rules strictly under the background of the card,Level 3 market that second-hand housing downturn has also in the first half of the year。

  来自本地品牌中介的监测数据显示,2012年上半场总体成交同比去年上半年并没有太大的变化,总体成交量依旧在低位运行。在富邦房产总经理卞东晓看来,与去年相比,今年二手房市场的情况还是略有变化。他认为,政策层面的表现不再像去年那样从上到下一味强调调控,而是呈现出中央紧、地方松的态势,目前“以价换量”的局面可能是双方都能接受的结果,可成交量一旦上升,价格就会蠢蠢欲动,因此今年上半年有个别月份成交量上升后,中央马上就会重新强调楼市调控的坚定决心,以维护楼市的价格平稳,而市场表现也随之出现波动。来自部分中介的统计数据显示,由于受一手房降价预期的影响,加之整个市场持续低位运行,今年市场上的二手房房价总体还是略有下降,监控降幅约在10%左右,最主要的表现形式主要是在议价空间的放大。

From the local intermediary monitoring data showed that brand,In 2012 the first half year-on-year in the first half of last year overall clinch a deal and not too much change,Overall volume in the low post is still running。In the rich nation property BianDongXiao seems to general manager,Compared with last year,Secondhand market this year or a little change。He thinks,The performance of the policy level as last year that no longer from top to bottom fastening on regulation,But the present a central tight、To FangSong trend,At present“To change the price of”The situation may be mutually acceptable results,But once the volume up,The price will be stirring,So in the first half of this year in individual after rising volume,The central immediately to emphasize firm determination of the property market regulation,In order to maintain the property market prices stable,The performance of the markets and also emerge in volatility。From partial intermediary figures show,Due to a room by the influence of the expected price,Together with the whole market continues to run low,This year the market prices of second-hand overall is declined slightly,Monitoring decline about at about 10%,The main form of mainly in the negotiation of the space amplification。

  而正如跷跷板的两边,房屋成交量的下滑必然会撬动另一头租赁市场的放大。“今年租赁业务在门店业务中的占比普遍达到四成以上,对于许多门店来讲,租赁是最稳定的业务收入来源,起到维持门店运营成本的重要作用。”卞东晓在接受记者采访时如是表示。而包括东函房产等品牌中介今年都把租赁市场作为主攻方向,这不仅是增加收入,最关键的是在整体低迷的环境下寻求新的生存模式。

And just as the seesaw on both sides,The downturn in the housing volume will move to the other side of the rental market amplification。“This year the leasing business restaurants in the business of than is generally above forty percent,For many outlets to speak,Lease is the most stable business income source,Keep store operation cost the important role。”BianDongXiao when accepting a reporter to interview if said。And the real estate brand letter including the rental market intermediary this year as the main attack direction,This is not only increases the income,The key is in the whole under the environment of the downturn for new survival mode。

  对于下半年本地大多品牌中介都表示将发力。“6月开了一家店,7月计划新开两家店。”东函房产总经理刘汝东在接受记者采访时表示,由于政策面的变化,6月以来昆明各中介来客量明显增加,而这种增量也给各大中介对于下半场的精彩有了更多的期待。本报记者 毛建伟

For most of the second half of the local brand intermediary are said to hair force。“June opened a store,July plan new opening two new shops。”Real estate LiuRuDong general manager of the east when accepting a reporter to interview said,Due to the change of the policy,Since June, the intermediary of kunming visitors increased obviously,And this kind of incremental also give each big intermediary for the second half of the wonderful have more looking forward to。Our correspondent MaoJianWei

  中场(二级市场)

midfielder(The secondary market)

  成交套数、面积双降 房价却有“向上”冲动

Clinch a deal a cycle of、But house prices have double decrease area“up”impulse

  赛场竞技:一个成功的球队,中场的功力不可忽视,在楼市中,二级市场无疑是起到承前启后作用的中场,有其调度才能有后卫和前锋作用的精彩发挥。回顾2012年上半年,由于国家对房地产的调控政策日趋严厉,加重了市场的观望情绪,由此今年第一季度商品房成交量始终处于下滑状态,且日趋低迷。直至5月,随着金融信贷政策对房贷利率的调整,成交才稍有回暖。

Competitive game:A successful team,The work force of midfielder should not be ignored,In the property market in,The secondary market is undoubtedly have contributed the midfield role,Has its scheduling can have a defender and striker role play the wonderful。Review in the first half of 2012,Because of the national real estate is severe control policy,Increased market her emotions,Thus the first quarter of this year, the volume of commodity house always in a slowdown,And increasingly downturn。Until may,With the financial credit policy to adjust rate mortgages,Clinch a deal just slightly warmed。

  根据昆明市房地产信息网的成交数据统计,2012年1月至6月期间,昆明楼市共累计成交各类商品房34241套,成交面积2797059.78平方米。与2011年上半年同期相比,成交套数减少了6609套,降幅为16.18%,成交面积减少651040.22平方米,降幅为18.88%。值得一提的是,5月单月的成交量创下了今年上半年成交量的最高峰,达到了8656套。

According to the real estate information nets of kunming clinch a deal data statistics,In January 2012 to June period,Kunming of accumulative total of of all kinds commodity house property market clinch a deal of 34241,Clinch a deal the area of 2797059.78 square meters。In the first half of 2011 compared with the same period,Reduce the cycle of 6609 sets clinch a deal,Decreased by 16.18%,Clinch a deal the decrease of 651040.22 square meters,Decreased by 18.88%。It is,The month of may set the record of the volume in the first half of this year the highest peak of volume,To reach 8656 sets。

  2012上半年昆明楼市供应总体来说较为平稳。根据昆明市住房和城乡建设局公布的商品房预售证数据,上半年,昆明获批预售许可证的楼盘累计50个,预售面积为4514969.19平方米。从楼盘性质看,其中4个楼盘以商业为主,分别是:昆明宏盛达月星商业中心、纪浩鸿商业广场、融城金阶广场和滇高商务大楼,商业供应量为222399.78平方米,约占市场总供应量的4.95%。 The first half of 2012 kunming housing supply in general is more stable。According to the housing and urban and rural construction bureau of kunming released commodity house opens to booking a card data,In the first half,Kunming approved open to booking licence buildings of accumulative total 50,Open to booking area is 4514969.19 square metre。Buildings look from nature,4 of commercial buildings to give priority to,Respectively is:Kunming macro shengda month star commercial center、JiHaoHong commercial plaza、The city into JinJie square and yunnan high business building,Commercial supply is 222399.78 square metre,Accounts for about 4.95% of the total market supply。

  此外,从房价的变化来看,今年开始,市内多家楼盘都采取降价或变相降价的营销方式来换取销量,但进入5月之后,随着国家金融政策的适度调整,昆明楼市房价有了细微的变化。虽然据《中国房地产百城指数报告》显示,直至6月底,昆明的样本平均价从1月的7538元/平方米下跌至6月的7421元/平方米。但从市场成交价来看,金尚俊园、格拉斯香水小镇等多家楼盘连续几次加推的房价都较之前有所上调,这也在一定程度上透露出,目前昆明房价已经有“向上”的冲动。本报记者 林若男

In addition,From the change of house prices to see,The beginning of this year,The city is taking home more building price reduction in disguised form or ways of marketing for sales,But in the five months later,Along with the national financial policy adjustments,Kunming property market prices have minor changes。Although according to《China real estate index stores》shows,Until the end of June,Kunming samples from January 7538 the average yuan/square metre down to June of 7421 yuan/square metre。But from market clinch a deal valence to see,JinShangJun garden、Glass perfume town and a number of buildings for several times and push prices to rise than before,It also revealed in a certain extent,At present the kunming house prices have already been there“up”impulse。Our correspondent LinRe male

  后卫(一级市场)

defender(Level 1 market)

  土地成交面积同比降幅近九成 仅 5月现拿地小高潮

Land area fell by nearly ninety percent year-on-year clinch a deal may now take only small high tide

  赛场竞技:无论什么样的球队,防守给力才是关键,而土地供应无疑就像足球比赛上的后卫,胜利必须根源于此。

Competitive game:No matter what kind of the team,Defense to force is the key,And the land supply like football game undoubtedly the defender,Must be rooted in the victory。

  与2011年相比,2012年土地市场十分冷清。此外,伴随着楼市的调控的不断深入,全国范围内商品房的成交量及价格都出现不同程度的下滑,房企库存压力不断加大,资金链日趋紧张,拿地情绪亦是不高,昆明市场也同样如此。这一情况在5月出现了些许改观,昆明土地市场5月溢价不断,但土地市场“回暖”一说尚难确定。

Compared with 2011,In 2012 the land market is very cold and cheerless。In addition,With the deepening of the property market regulation,Nationwide, the volume of commodity house prices and in different degree of falling,High pressure rising stock room,Capital chain increasingly nervous,Take mood also is to not high,Kunming market as such。The situation in the may appear some change,Kunming land market may premium constantly,But the land market“warmed”Is difficult to determine said。

  从昆明市国土资源局网站发布的数据统计结果看,2012年1-6月,昆明主城四区及呈贡区累计供应地块67宗,供应面积2189717.68平方米,折合约3284.57亩,与2011年上半年相比同比下降84%,比2010年上半年增长4.7%;交易起价122840.35万元,与2011年上半年相比下降96%,比2010年上半年下降68%。

From kunming municipal bureau of land and resources on its web site statistics results look,2012 June-1,Kunming urban area and four ChengGong area accumulative total supply plot 67 and respectively,Supply area of 2189717.68 square meters,Or about 3284.57 acres,In the first half of 2011, compared with 84% year-on-year drop,More than 4.7% growth in the first half of 2010;Trading for 1.2284035 billion yuan,And in the first half of 2011 compared with a 96% decline,Better than the first half of 2010 fell 68%。

  成交结果显示,上半年昆明土地市场底价成交是常态,最终成交地块54宗,成交面积1577599.99平方米,折合约2366.39亩,与2011年上半年相比同比下降88.5%,同比2010年上半年下降17.9%;成交总额为1087662.69万元,与2011年上半年相比同比下降68%,比2010年上半年上涨140%左右,成交金额的贡献主要来自于商业地块。

Clinch a deal the results show that,In the first half of land market clinch a deal price kunming is normal,Finally clinch a deal the plot 54 cases,Clinch a deal the area of 1577599.99 square meters,Or about 2366.39 acres,In the first half of 2011, compared with 88.5% year-on-year drop,Down 17.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2010;Clinch a deal amount is 10.8766269 billion yuan,In the first half of 2011, compared with 68% year-on-year drop,Than the increase of about 140% in the first half of 2010,Clinch a deal amount contribution mainly from commercial plots。

  此外,5月出现了今年以来难得的溢价地块,主要以商业用地为主。5月4日,1宗金融用地,经过48轮竞价以13400万元成交,溢价6720万元,溢价率100.1%,楼面地价为2149.54元/平方米。随后的5月12日,昆明土地市场再现溢价地块。

In addition,May appear since this year rare premium plot,The main commercial land to give priority to。May 4,,1 Pope financial land,After 48 round of bidding of 134 million yuan transactions,Premium 67.2 million yuan,Premium rate 100.1%,Floor price is 2149.54 yuan/square metre。The May 12,Kunming land market represent premium plot。

  土地价格方面,从目前昆明市国土资源局网站发布的数据来看,各类型地块价格上涨与下降的趋势并不明显。从目前的情况来看,城中村改造项目用具基本保持在1000万余元/亩左右(包括商业用地在内),一般的住宅用地则在500万元/亩左右。从热点地块来看,万达进驻的老海埂路片区备受关注。本报记者 王亚萍 杨振

Land prices,Kunming municipal bureau of land and resources from the current data on its web site to see,Each type of land prices and falling trend is not obvious。According to the current situation,Villages reform project appliance more than 10 million yuan in basic keep/acres around(Including commercial land inside),The general housing land is in 5 million yuan/mu or so。From hot plot and see,Wanda in old forwardes concern about the way area。Our correspondent WangYaPing YangZhen

  替补(投资性产品)

substitute(Investment products)

  商业地产推盘量及价格企稳 别墅稀缺性凸显

Commercial real estate push dish quantity and price stabilising villa scarcity highlight

  赛场竞技:当球场上球员乏力之时,替补将发挥扭转乾坤的作用,而从楼市看当普通住宅市场调控日趋严峻之时,转向经营商业地产、旅游地产,甚至是工业地产也就成为了众多房企的备选之路。市场的变化随时可能出现,替补走上前台,也不是没有可能,而正因为这样的可能才有了商业地产迎来“十年黄金期”一说。但商业地产对于目前国内的房地产企业而言,还是一门新学问,自发的商业圈层成型与成熟之间还有很大的差距。

Competitive game:When a player on the court when the lack of power,Substitute will play the role of turning the tide of battle,And from a property market look when ordinary residential market regulation are becoming serious,Steering business commercial real estate、Tourism real estate,Even industrial real estate also become numerous room alternative way of enterprises。The changes of the market may appear at any time,Substitute on stage,Not impossible,And because this may just have in commercial real estate“Ten years of gold”said。But for the domestic commercial real estate of real estate companies,Or a new knowledge,Spontaneous commercial envelops molding and between mature also has the very big disparity。

  从目前的情况来看,昆明商业地产开发量十分可观,主要与目前昆明大体量的城中村改造项目的土地供应有关。但2012年上半年昆明商业地产的推盘量企稳,据记者对今年上半年推盘情况的统计,今年上半年约有10个项目推出商业体,项目分别是:万科·香缇坊、华都B区、葡萄街区、红星国际二期、西府景苑、高顺铭都、经典双城、三百步欧洲、嵩明大学中心城、润城·第一大道。从产品类型来看,推出的商业项目包含社区商铺、临街底商、住宅底商、邻里中心、写字楼等产品类型较为丰富。从成交情况来看,万科·香缇坊在昆的首次亮相,受到了市场比较好的关注度,成交情况也很乐观。

According to the current situation,Kunming commercial real estate back hurriedly is very considerable,At present the main and kunming DaTiLiang villages transformation project of land supply relevant。But in the first half of 2012 kunming commercial real estate to the push plate stabilising amount,According to the reporter in the first half of this year to push the disk statistics,In the first half of this year about 10 projects launch commercial body,Project were:China vanke · fragrance twips fang、HuaDou area B、Grapes blocks、Hongxing international phase ii、XiFu JingYuan、GaoShunMing all、Classic twins、Three hundred steps in Europe、The university of song city center、Embellish city first avenue。From product types and see,The launch of the commercial projects include community shops、Base business street、Residence base business、Neighborhood center、Office buildings and other products type more abundant。Judging from the deal,China vanke · fragrance twips fang in Queensland's first appearance,Subject to market better attention,Deal was very positive。

  据昆明风之铃市场调查咨询机构的监测数据显示,昆明商业体价格走势较为平稳。从风之铃1-5月份发布的商业数据来看,昆明商业体不分区域商业销售价格保持的在均价在30000元/平方米左右,而写字楼的价格均价则在20000元/平方米左右。

According to kunming wind the bell market research and advisory organization monitoring data shows,Kunming commercial body movements of prices is more stable。The wind from the 1-5 released in business data and see,Kunming commercial body regardless of regional business sales keep the price of the average price in the 30000 yuan/m2,And the price of the average office in 20000 yuan/square metre。

  而对于别墅项目而言,由于政策方面的严卡,地块供应受到限制,政策催热别墅产品的可能性很大。为此,别墅产品稀缺性也就较为明显,从风之铃的数据来看,别墅价格基本保持在21000元/平方米左右。本报记者 王亚萍 统筹:本报记者 王亚萍

And as for villa project,Due to the policy of strict card,Land supply is limited,Policy urged the hot villa products possibility is very large。For this,Villa products also are relatively obvious scarcity,The bell of data from the wind to see,Villa basic price remain at 21000 yuan/m2。Our correspondent WangYaPing plan as a whole:Our correspondent WangYaPing



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