2012年上半年，南京楼市成交量达到31132套，比去年同期上涨了6成多。与此同时，历经调控的市场开始有楼盘微幅提高房价。中央连续强调调控不放松，地王却重出江湖。是陷阱还是转机？是触底的反弹还是短暂的回暖？楼市总是迷雾重生。【直播：陷阱？转机？2012南京楼市务实高端论坛】

In the first half of 2012，Nanjing property market turnover reached 31132 sets，Rose more than the same period last year more than six into。At the same time，After the market began to have control of micro and improve the building house prices。The central continuous emphasis on regulation not to relax，But star Sylvester stallone。Is the trap or transfer？Is a touch on the rebound or is it a thaw？Housing is always fog rebirth。【live：trap？connecting？2012 nanjing property market pragmatic high-end BBS】

　　在市场踏在十字路口的特殊时期，365地产家居网联合网尚研究机构特别策划“陷阱？转机？2012年南京楼市务实高端论坛”，从南京楼市最权威、真实数据出发，点评上半年楼市风云，在数据研究的基础之上，探讨下半年的走势。南京大学商学院高波教授在现场发表了题为《转型还是坚守：楼市还会有＂黄金十年＂么》的演讲，他认为未来十年中国房地产发展存在四大机遇，还将迎来“黄金十年”。

In the market on the crossroads of the special period，365 real estate home JuWang joint nets is still research institutions special planning“trap？connecting？2012 years nanjing property market pragmatic high-end BBS”，The most authoritative from nanjing property market、Real data of，In the first half and comments on property market，On the basis of research data，Discusses the trend of the second half。Nanjing university business school professor GaoBo in the published title《Transformation or stick to：Property market will have "golden decade"》speech，He believes the next decade China real estate development has four big opportunity，Also will have“Golden decade”。

　　我们现在关心的是是否会有下一个黄金十年，为什么会有下一个黄金十年，首先中国房地产发展的环境没有发生本质的变化，中国经济增长靠房地产是不现实的。我们来分析一下，去年中国的房地产开发投资实际增长了21%，在9个百分点当中，房地产这一年做的贡献是非常大，再加上消费等的贡献超过了30个百分点，也就是说占了三分之一。大家知道今年上半年房地产增长比去年高了7个百分点，这7个百分点正好是一个GDP的增长。假如我们保持了去年的增长速度，上半年的经济增长速度就可以达到8.8%，而不是7.8%，就不存在保增长的问题了。

We now concern is whether there will be the next gold ten years，Why would be the next gold ten years，The first thing China real estate development environment is not essential changes occur，China's economic growth by real estate is not realistic。We analyse the，Last year China's investment in real estate development real growth of 21%，In 9% of，Real estate in the contribution is very big，Plus the contribution of consumption and other more than 30%，That is accounted for a third。You know that the first half of this year the real estate growth 7% higher than last year，This is just a 7% GDP growth。If we keep the speed of growth in the last year，The first half of the year the pace of economic growth can reach 8.8%，Not 7.8%，Isn't there a growing problem the......。

　　房地产业发生的环境没有发生本质性的变化，但是我们希望一些高科技产业，比如像云计算等这些有很好的发展，新材料、新医药、技能环保、航空航天这些产业应该说有很大发展空间。首先在未来五到十年当中，我们要让这些产业在中国成为支柱产业，但是很难做到。现在温总理提出未来，也就是到2020年要有20%的发电来自于再生能源，欧洲国家的实力比中国强很多，首先是不太可能。即使说这些产业要得到更好的发展也需要房地产的支持，我们有些开发商现在在搞新能源，为什么他有能力搞生物研究，因为在房地产开发这块赚钱，如果说没有这个钱的话就很难去投入到这些战略性的新兴产业。本身这些高科技行业就是烧钱，烧的钱从哪里来，就是从房地产来。

The real estate industry occurring conditions not happened fundamental change，But we hope some high-tech industry，Such as cloud computing, these have very good development，The new material、The new medicine、Skills environmental protection、Aerospace these industry should have very big development space said。First of all in the next five to ten years，We let the industry in China become a pillar industry，But it's hard to do。Now prime minister wen the future is put forward，Also is to 2020 to 20% of the power comes from renewable energy sources，The strength of the European countries than China a lot，First is unlikely。Even if said the industry get better development also need the support of the real estate，We have some developers now doing new energy，Why has he the ability to make biological research，Because in real estate development this to make money，If not the word of money will be difficult to into these strategic new industry。These high-tech industry itself is burn money，Burn money come from，Real estate is from。

　　去年年底全国的城市化水平只有21.7%，现在仍处于高速成长阶段，目前只有50将来要到70，按照之前城市化的速度一年上涨一个百分点，那么这个过程中会不断地产生房地产的需求，我现在没有讲黄金二十年，我讲的是黄金十年，就是可以肯定的讲在未来十年中，中国房地产开发也仍然处于非常重要的位置，因为它存在现实的需求。

By the end of last year the urbanization level of only 21.7%，Now still in high-speed growth stage，At present, only 50 to 70 in the future，According to the speed of urbanization took before a year rose one percent，So this process will continue to produce real estate needs，Now, I don't speak gold for 20 years，I'm talking about is golden decade，Is certainly speak over the next decade，China real estate development also still in a very important position，Because it exists real needs。

　　第三点我们说从过去的经验来看，房地产消费发生的变化非常大。一般欧美国家房地产消费要在总消费中占20%到30%，我们只占13%。我们现在明确提出来扩大内需，扩大消费需求，在扩大消费需求这样一个大的战略面前，恐怕首先比较难满足的消费需求是住房消费需求，所以我觉得从商业上可以做出准确的判断，相信再过十年回头看的时候，会说这个判断是正确的。为什么要判断呢，因为一些人说未来是房地产的黄金十年，甚至会更加辉煌。

The third point we said the experience from the past，Real estate changes of consumption is very big。Generally the European and American countries in total consumption to real estate consumption accounts for 20% to 30%，We only 13%。We are now clear out the expansion of domestic demand，Expanding consumer demand，In the expanding consumer demand such a big strategic presence，I'm afraid first hard to satisfy the consumer demand is the housing consumption demand，So I think that from a business can make accurate judgment，Believe in ten more years look back，Will say this judgment is right。Why to judge，Because some people say that the future is real estate's golden decade，Even more brilliant。

　　未来的黄金十年我想主要有这样四个机遇，首先市场的集中度，行业的集中度会迅速的提高。也就是说只要你是品牌企业，你有足够的后劲就会迅速的扩张，提高你的市场份额，这是一个机遇。第二个机遇是产业链的成熟，我们房地产的产业链主要集中在房地产开发，未来的十年会由房地产开发向房地产副业延伸。房地产副业未来的发展空间非常大，这表明房地产由过去的成长阶段走向成熟阶段。因此说作为一个开发企业我们现在思考的是永远采取过去的模式拿地盖房子，再拿地盖房子的模式是不行的。

The future of golden decade I think basically has such four opportunities，First market concentration，The concentration degree of the industry will rapidly increase。That is as long as you are a brand enterprise，Do you have enough staying power will quickly expansion，Improve your share of the market，This is an opportunity。The second opportunity is the industrial chain of mature，Our real estate industry chain mainly in the real estate development，In the next ten years by a real estate development to real estate sideline extensions。The future development of the real estate sideline space is very big，This suggests that the real estate from the growth stage to mature stage。Therefore said as a development enterprise we now think is always take the past mode to take house，Get to build a house is not the way of the model。

　　第三个机遇是大的交通框架正在形成和发展，城市之间的联系越来越紧密。我前面提到房地产泡沫的大中城市，广州的泡沫是最低的，有很多人怀疑。这个月的月初我在澳门参加一个国际会议，碰到了广东省房协的会长陈慧生，我跟他交流，我说你对这个机构怎么看，他说这个机构是比较符合实际情况的，为什么广州的房价在珠三角比较合理呢，我们分析主要因为广州周边的城市发生了变化，就是它的城市群发生了变化。广州周边的，甚至在广州工作的人可以完全不在广州买房，而跑到周边城市去买房，我现在讲的，特别是高铁起来以后，现在交通它将会推动城市群发展，这个对于中小城市，大城市周围的中小城市来讲是非常好的机会。甚至我建议我们可以适当地在这些城市购房。

The third opportunity is traffic framework are forming and development，The contact between the city more and more closely。I mentioned before the real estate bubble in large and medium-sized cities，Guangzhou bubble is the lowest，Many people doubted。Early this month I in macau, to participate in an international conference，Met the President of the association of guangdong province room ChenHuiSheng，He and I exchange，I say to you what the agency，He said the agency is more tally with the actual situation，Why guangzhou home prices in the pearl river delta is reasonable，We analysis the main because guangzhou peripheral city changed，Is it the changes of urban agglomeration。Guangzhou surrounding the，Even work in guangzhou people can not guangzhou to buy a house，And ran to the surrounding city to buy a house，I speak it now，Especially high iron up later，Now the traffic it will promote urban agglomeration development，This for small and medium-sized cities，The small and medium-sized cities around big cities will be very good chance。Even I suggest that we can be appropriately in the city the house。

　　最后一个机遇在哪里呢，就是总体上房地产开发的空间由东部向中西部，由大城市向中小城市转移。前几年李智博士跟我交流，说南京这个城市尽管没有人口的净流入，人口流入的净数据越来越小了，比如前年是18万，今年是15万，这说明什么呢，这就正好证明了我这里讲的这句话，因为大城市人口到了一定水平以后再进来就比较难了，房价本身就成为一个门槛。所以说这个中西部地区，中小城市会有机会。所以江苏南京的房价早超过了一万块，甚至在江苏的苏州地区出现房价超过一万块的城市，更不用说我到张家港去了解他们的房价，大概都在一万以上。说明中小城市和中西部地区，甚至一些五六线的小城市，小城镇都起来了，这是下一个黄金十年和上一个黄金十年不同的地方。（365地产家居网 张明钊）

The last opportunity in where，Is the real estate development of space in general by the east to the Midwest，The big cities to the small and medium city transfer。A few years ago dr. Li zhi with I exchange，Nanjing the city despite no said the population net inflows，Population influx of net data smaller and smaller，Such as the year before last year is 180000，This year is 150000，This explains what，This is just proved my here speak of this sentence，Because the population of big cities at a certain level in later is a more difficult task，House prices itself became a threshold。So says the Midwest，Small and medium-sized cities will have a chance。So in nanjing jiangsu house prices more than ten thousand pieces of early，Even the suzhou region appear in jiangsu house prices more than ten thousand pieces of city，Not to mention me to zhangjiagang to know the prices，Probably all at ten thousand or more。That small and medium-sized cities and in the Midwest，Even some five or six lines of small cities，Small towns are up，This is the next gold on a decade and golden decade different places。（365 real estate home JuWang ZhangMingZhao）