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　　中国房地产研究会副会长：现在不具备房价大涨条件总理讲话是打“预防针”

China real estate, vice President of research：Now do not have house prices surged to prime minister speech is playing conditions“precautionary”

　　经济稳增长和楼市调房价正在面临正面“交锋”，正当不少地方政府试图放松限购、开发商寄望楼市回暖的关键时刻，温家宝总理昨日在常州调研重申楼市调控政策，强调“要毫不动摇地继续推进房地产市场各项调控工作，促进房价合理回归，决不能让房价反弹，造成功亏一篑。”这是温家宝总理半年来第五次强调房价合理回归的问题，向市场传递了坚持调控的决心。

Steady economic growth and the property market prices are facing positive“clash”，While many local governments try to relax 限购、Developers hope property market warms up in the key moment，Prime minister wen jiabao yesterday in changzhou research reiterated that the property market adjustment and control policies，emphasize“Will unswervingly to continue to push forward the real estate market various control work，Promote the rational regression house prices，Never let the house prices rebound，Cause failed。”This is prime minister wen jiabao half a year to the fifth emphasis on house prices reasonable regression problems，To transfer control of the market to resolve。

　　对房地产调控目标 表达了坚定的决心

On real estate control target expresses the firm determination

　　今年5月中旬，温家宝总理在武汉主持召开六省经济形势座谈会时指出，要把稳增长放在更加重要的位置。国家确立宏观经济“稳增长”的战略目标后，楼市调控是否会因“稳增长”的宏观经济形势要求而发生松动，房价调控成果是否会“功亏一篑”，成为近来市民关心的话题。

In may this year the middle，Prime minister wen jiabao presided the six provinces in wuhan economic situation when symposium pointed out，To BaWen growth in a more important position。Countries establish macro economy“Steady growth”Strategic goals，Property market regulation would cause“Steady growth”Macroeconomic situation requirement and happen is loose，House price regulation would result“failed”，Become recently about the topic of citizens。

　　面对宏观经济层面的持续低迷，央行先后在6月8日和7月6日下调人民币存贷款基准利率，虽然降息主要是出于“稳增长”的目的，但降低购房利息支出和开发商融资成本被认为对楼市带来了实质利好，很多房地产业内人士对接下来的楼市走势表示乐观，甚至有人认为房价将加速筑底反弹。

Facing the macroeconomic level remain low，The central bank has, on June 8 and July 6 yuan the benchmark interest rates down，Although it was for cut interest rates“Steady growth”purpose，But reduce interest payments that buy a house and developers financing cost is thought to bring the essence of property market positive news，A lot of real estate industry insiders docking down in the housing market trends optimistic，Some people even think prices will speed up the building rebound。

　　温家宝昨日关于房价调控的讲话是在提出“稳增长”的目标后，首次回应了市民对房价问题的关切，对房地产调控目标表达了坚定的决心。温家宝说，经过多年艰苦不懈的努力，房地产市场调控取得了一定成效。值得注意的是，二季度全国主要监测城市地价出现环比微升，6月份一些城市新建住宅价格出现环比上涨，目前房地产市场信息比较混乱，市场对房价走势的预期出现一些变化，群众普遍担心房价反弹。

Wen jiabao yesterday about house prices is put forward in the regulation of the speech“Steady growth”Goal after，The first to respond to the concerns of citizens of house prices，On real estate control target expresses the firm determination。Wen jiabao said，After years of hard unremitting efforts，The real estate market regulation has made great progress。Note the，In the second quarter of the main monitoring urban land price appear annulus comparing edged，June some city new residence price appear annulus comparing to rise，Real estate market at present information chaos，The market prices of the trend is expected to appear some changes，The widespread concern about house prices rebound。

　　6月楼市回暖明显 各地“小动作”不断

June property market warms up obviously all over the country“incidents”constantly

　　始于2011年初的限购政策，有效抑制了市场上投机投资购房需求的释放。但2012年3月以来，部分地方政府或明或暗地放松房地产市场调控的举动频频，加上近来短短一个月的时间里央行连续两次降息的利好带动，楼市行情回暖已经成为不争的事实。

Began in early 2011 限购 of policy，Effectively restrain the market speculative investment the release of pent-up demand。But since March 2012，Some local governments expressly or tacitly relax regulation of the real estate market move again and again，With just one recent months central bank cut interest rates for two times the good driving，Housing market warms up has become the fact that does not dispute。

　　中国指数研究院本月初发布的中国房地产指数系统百城房价指数显示，今年6月全国100个城市新建住宅平均价格为每平方米8688元，环比5月上涨0.05%，结束了2011年9月以来连续9个月环比下跌的态势。

China index academy published earlier this month China real estate index system stores in house price index showed，In June this year the country's 100 city new residence average price for every square metre 8688 yuan，November 5 month rose 0.05%，Over 2011 years since September nine consecutive y/y falling trend。

　　同时，各地在贯彻调控政策方面也出现了微妙变化。据不完全统计，截至今年5月底，已经先后有40多个城市微调了房地产政策，主要方式是通过降低公积金贷款首付比例、成品房购房补贴、利率优惠等措施。中国房地产协会的研究报告认为，这些政策面的变化，均为市场带来政策面将走向宽松的预期，促进了购房需求的释放。

At the same time，The local regulation policy implementation also appeared subtle changes。According to not complete count，So far this year of the end of may，Already there have been more than 40 cities the trimming to the real estate policies，The main way is by lower down accumulation fund loan ratio、Finished housing product purchase subsidies、Favorable interest rate and other measures。China real estate association study think，The change of the policy，All for the market with a face to the policy will loose expectations，Promote the release of pent-up demand。

　　目前不具备 房价大幅反弹的条件

Currently do not have house prices rebound sharply conditions

　　中国房地产研究会副会长顾云昌昨日接受记者采访时表示，目前地方有放松调控的迹象主要是因为地方政府看待楼市问题的角度不同，利益诉求也不同。因为房地产的持续低迷必然影响地方财政。顾云昌认为，现在也不具备房价大涨的条件，总理的讲话主要是对楼市调控打“预防针”。

China real estate research board vice-chairman GuYunChang yesterday when accepting a reporter to interview said，The local regulation have relaxing signs of local government mainly because see the point of view of the housing problem is different，Interest demand is different also。Because the real estate downturn will inevitably affect the local finance continued。GuYunChang think，Now, also do not have house prices surged conditions，The prime minister's speech is mainly to the property market regulation play..“precautionary”。

　　中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所研究员牛凤瑞分析指出，目前宏观的经济走势和房地产调控方向发生了碰撞，楼市调控又面临了十字路口，中央保增长的压力越来越大，又不希望房地产调控效果功亏一篑，这实际是一对矛盾。但温家宝总理关于房地产调控的最新讲话传递了中央关于房地产调控不动摇的政策方向。

The Chinese academy of social sciences researcher at the institute of urban development and environment NiuFengRui analysis，At present the macroscopic economy trends and real estate regulation has hit the direction，Property market regulation and faced the crossroads，The central the growth under increasing pressure，And don't want real estate control effect the lip，This is actually a pair of contradictions。But prime minister wen jiabao about property regulation of speech delivered the latest about real estate to shake the central control policy direction。

　　对于房价合理回归的问题，顾云昌认为这个问题可以从房价上涨速度和收入增长速度的比较来看，目前房价大降的可能性不大，但如果房价能够稳定住，居民收入连续增长，也相当于房价合理回归。

For the problem of house prices reasonable return，GuYunChang think this problem can be rising house prices from speed and income growth speed compared to see，The current price big drop is unlikely，But if house prices to stabilize live，Income continuous growth，Also be equivalent to house prices reasonable regression。