7月5日央行突然宣布减息。这次减息对市场的影响与冲击肯定是巨大的，特别是对国内住房市场的影响与冲击更是不可低估。

On July 5, the central bank announced suddenly cut rates。The market interest rates to the influence of the impact and must be enormous，Especially for the housing market and the impacts of domestic impact is not underestimate。

　　当前政策是鼓励住房市场发展及房价飚升时稳定住房价，但做到这一点并不容易。国内住房市场其繁荣与发展基本是货币政策推动的结果。国内货币政策调整到哪里，国内房地产市场就会发展到哪里。无论是前十年房地产市场繁荣，还是2009年房地产投机炒作疯狂，及最近房地产宏观调控都是与货币政策变化有关。

The current policy is to encourage the housing market development and soaring house prices stable housing price，But to do this is not easy。Domestic housing market prosperity and development is the basic monetary policy to promote results。Domestic monetary policy adjustment to where，Domestic real estate market will develop to where。Whether a decade before the real estate market prosperity，Or 2009 real estate speculating crazy，And recent macroeconomic regulation and control are real estate and monetary policy is about change。

　　这次央行减息，尽管重申金融机构要继续严格执行差别化的各项住房信贷政策，继续抑制投机投资性购房。但对房地产市场影响仍不可低估。如果差别化的信贷政策被打破，那么两年来的住房宏观调控将前功尽弃。

The central bank interest rate cuts，Although reiterated that the financial institutions should continue to strictly carry out the policy of differentiation housing credit，Continue to restrain speculative investment the house。But despite the influence of the real estate market can't be underestimated。If the differentiation of the credit breaks，So two years of housing macroeconomic regulation and control will have been wasted。

　　我们可以看到，经过两年多的住房宏观调控，从5月份开始，国内住房市场销售开始回升，房地产“去库存化”的压力在减低。尤其是6月份，全国主要大城市的房价下跌停止。这种现象的出现说明了什么？并非如市场所解释的那样是所谓的住房“刚性需求”进入市场，或住房“刚性需求”释放出来，而是政府稳增长一系列政策出台，导致房地产市场预期改变，特别是上一次央行减息更是这种住房市场预期转变的主要推手，从而使得不少住房消费者提早进入市场及一些住房投机炒作者又开始进入市场。

We can see，After more than two years of housing macroeconomic control，Started in May from，Domestic housing market sales starts to climb back up，Real estate“To inventory of”Pressure on down。Especially in June，The national major metropolitan falling house prices to stop。This kind of the phenomenon of the show？Not if the market had explained that is called the housing“Rigid demand”To enter the market，Or housing“Rigid demand”released，But the government a series of policies on growth，In real estate market expectations change，Especially the last time the central bank is the housing market interest rates change key driver of the expected，So many housing consumers into the market and some early housing speculation ChaoZuoZhe began to enter the market。

　　如果国内住房市场在当前房价水平下又出现量升价涨的格局，房地产泡沫将继续吹大。而吹大了房地产泡沫所带来的风险可以比经济稳增长所带的收益大。在央行再次降息的影响下，它会进一步强化房地产政策出现重大转向的预期，国内房地产泡沫可能会由此进一步吹大。

If domestic housing market in the current level of house prices and the rise in price rose pattern，The real estate bubble will continue to blow。And the real estate bubble blows big risks caused by economic stability than with the growth of large gains。In under the influence of the central bank cut interest rates again，It will further strengthen the policy of real estate significant to expect，Domestic real estate bubble may thus further blow。

　　减息已经向市场发出了一个明确的信号，即国内货币政策价格工具下降的通道已经打开。在未来的一段时间里，只要经济形势减弱，央行就有动用下降利率的可能性。而住房市场对利率最为敏感，只要利率下降，不仅可以降低住房购买者成本，而且也将促使市场对融资政策产生预期。而这种融资政策预期很大程度上也就决定国内房地产市场繁荣程度。尽管目前从表面上看是对住房投机炒作有限制，本次再降低利率也重申了差别化的信贷政策不变化，重申打击住房投机炒作。但是无论是限购政策还是信贷政策都存在严重的不完全性，只要购买住房是有利可图，住房投资炒作者都会冲破这种管制进入市场。如果住房投机炒作者再次进入市场，国内住房市场泡沫吹大则是必然。到时候这个巨大的房地产泡沫如何收拾将是严重的问题。

To market interest rates has sent a clear signal，That is the price of domestic monetary policy tools of the decline of the channel is already open。In the next time，As long as the economy weakens，The central bank has used the possibility of interest rates down。And the housing market interest rate most sensitive，As long as interest rates fell，Can not only reduce the cost of housing buyers，And also will enable the market on the financing policies have the desired。And the financing policy expected largely also decided to domestic real estate market prosperity。Despite the current on the surface is limited to housing speculating，To reduce the interest rate has also reiterated that the credit policy does not change menas，Reiterated that blow housing speculating。But whether 限购 policy or credit policy has serious incompleteness，When you buy housing is profitable，Housing investment ChaoZuoZhe will break through this control to enter the market。If housing speculation ChaoZuoZhe again to enter the market，Domestic housing market bubble blew big is inevitable。When the great real estate bubble how to tidy up will be serious problem。

　　还有，这次央行再次减息，是一次严重意义的不对称减息。这种不对称性不仅表现为存贷款利率下降的不对称性，即一年期存款基准利率下调0.25个百分点，一年期贷款基准利率下调0.31个百分点，表现为存贷款利率不同年限上的下降不对称（存贷款利率都是如此，特别是贷款利率，年限越长，下降的幅度就越大），也表现为存贷款利率上下限管理下浮的不对称。贷款利率再下浮10%，到7折优惠。

and，The central bank interest rates again，Is a serious meaning asymmetric reduction。This asymmetry performance not only for interest rate of the asymmetry of the decline，That is the 1-year benchmark deposit rate 0.25%，The benchmark one-year lending rate by 0.31%，The performance for the loan rate of different drop in asymmetry（Interest rate is so，Especially the loan interest rate，Fixed number of year more long，The greater the size），Also the performance for the interest rate at upper management of the floating asymmetry。Mortgage rates to 10% the past，7 to discount。

　　这种减息的不对称性说明政策意图十分明显：就是希望减息更大幅度来降低企业融资成本，特别是那些重大投资项目及政府融资平台的融资成本。这样不仅能够增加企业信贷需求，也降低了地方政府融资平台的金融风险。更为重要的是，当前国内住房按揭贷款多是5年期以上的中长期贷款，其贷款利率降幅较大，也降低了住房购买者的成本。这使得央行降低利率的政策将严重冲破现有的房地产宏观调控最后一道防线。如果这道防线被冲破，将对国内的经济及房地产市场造成巨大的影响。

This kind of the asymmetry of the interest rates that policy intention is very clear：Hope is more greatly to reduce interest rates enterprise financing costs，Especially those important investment projects and government financing platform financing costs。This can not only increase the enterprise credit demand，Also reduces the local government financing platform of financial risk。Even more important，The current domestic housing mortgages loan is much more than 5-year term loans，Its lending rates drop greatly，Also reduce the cost of housing buyers。This makes the central bank cut interest rates of serious policy will break through the existing real estate macroeconomic regulation and control the last line of defense。If this line of defence is break through，Will of the domestic economy and real estate market caused tremendous influence。

　　特别是，贷款利率下限管理再次下移由8折下降到7折。这可能与市场所流传的国内贷款需求疲软有关。下降贷款利率下限管理，由6月初的9折优惠，下降至7折优惠，其累积效应是十分明显的。如投资者在6月初为基准利率7.05厘,现在可获得7折优惠，那么其利率为4.585厘。利率下降幅度达2.5厘左右。所以，贷款利率管理下限下移，也会影响银行住房按揭贷款利率下移。在这种情况下，由于金融市场条件的变化，由于融资成本下降幅度较大，这也是重新唤醒住房投机炒作进入市场重要方面。

especially，The lower mortgage rates down again by 8 fold the management dropped to seven fold。This may and market spreads domestic loan demand weak relevant。Down mortgage rates lower limit management，By early June's discount，Fall to 7 discount，The cumulative effect is very obvious。Such as investors in early June as the benchmark interest rate 7.05,Now can have seven discount，So the interest rate is 4.585。Interest rates decline of 2.5 or so。so，Loan interest rates lower management folding，Will also affect bank housing mortgages loan interest rates down。In this case，Because financial market conditions change，Because the financing cost declines greatly，This is also resurrects housing speculating to enter the market important aspects。

　　当金融市场条件发展逆转时，有可能出现新一轮的住房炒作新潮，如果住房投机炒作又起，国内住房价格岂能不上涨？对此，应该拿出有针对性的应对措施，以保证房地产市场调控的节奏不被打乱。（作者系中国社会科学院金融研究所研究员）

When the financial market conditions for the development in reverse，There may be a new round of housing hype trendy，If housing speculating and up，Domestic housing price should not rise？this，Should come up with targeted measures，In order to ensure that the real estate market regulation rhythm don't be upset。（The author of the Chinese academy of social sciences finance institute researchers）