从各线城市今年以来的市场成交表现来看，一二线城市与三线城市出现了明显的分化。撇开1-2月份市场低谷期时不谈，2012年3-6月份一线城市成交量共达到1267万平方米，同比增长36%；样本二线城市共成交3809万平方米，同比增幅同样达到28%；而样本三线城市共成交997万平方米，相比去年同期增幅仅为2%。

From the city of the market this year makes it since clinch a deal to see performance，A second city and three city has noticeably differentiation。Apart from 1-February when market troughs don't talk，2012 3-in June a line of urban volume 12.67 million square meters，Year-on-year growth of 36%；Sample second city clinch a deal with 38.09 million square meters，Year-on-year rate of increase also reached 28%；And three lines of sample city clinch a deal 9.97 million square meters，Compared with the same period last year growth is only 2%。

　　在我们看来，一二线城市与三线城市今年以来市场出现分化，其主要原因在于政策环境的差异。自本轮调控以来，一二线城市始终是调控的重点对象，尤其是一线城市，北京是最早提出限购的，且对于外来人口需要提供5年的缴税证明，限购严格程度首屈一指；而上海在限购之外，更有房产税的压力，政策环境也相当之严；总体来看，一二线城市在去年政策高压之下，市场需求大量积压，而随着今年以来政策环境的逐步松动，尤其是银行针对首次购房需求的信贷支持明显增强，这使得刚需已经进入释放节奏，则市场成交量好于去年是顺理成章的事。

In our view，A second city and three city this year since the market appear differentiation，The main reason is that the policy environment of the differences。Since this since the regulation，A second city is always the focus of control object，Especially in a city，Beijing is the earliest 限购 put forward，And to foreign population need to provide five years of pay tax proof，限购 strict degree is second to none；And in Shanghai 限购 away，More housing property tax pressure，The policy environment is also quite strict；overall，A second city in policy last year under great pressure，The market demand a lot backlog，And as this year since the policy environment gradually loose，Especially in the pent-up demand for the first time the bank credit support increase apparently，This makes just need to have entered the release rhythm，The market volume good's normal last year。

　　而反观众多三线城市，尤其是近两年以来市场快速扩张的热点三线城市，本轮调控在去年对其造成的直接影响明显较小，限购政策大多还没有传导到这类城市；因此，较为宽松的政策环境导致这类城市在2011年的市场上表现突出；而进入2012年以来，三四线城市的需求在经历前期过度的释放后正显露出持续性的缺乏，而且，三线城市的市场需求一般都来自于本地，即使是一部分外来需求也随着政策环境的改善逐渐向一二线城市回流，基于上述分析，三线城市成交量在今年的增长放缓不足为奇。

And many in three line city，Especially in the past two years the market since the rapid expansion of hot three line city，This regulation in the last year in a direct result of less obvious，Most 限购 policy has not transmitted to this kind of city；so，Relatively loose policy environment lead to this kind of town in 2011 market well；And since 2012，Three or four lines of the city in the early experience excessive demand the release of the show is the sustainability of the lack of，and，Three lines of city market demand from local commonly，Even if is part of foreign demand also along with the improvement of the environment policy gradually to a second city backflow，Based on the above analysis，Three line city in this year's volume growth slowed are common。

　　各线城市上半年商品住宅交易量走势（单位：万平方米，% 数据来源：CRIC）

In the first half of the city makes the commodity residential house volume trends（unit：Square meters，% data sources：CRIC）

　　2012年以来，典型城市房价走势呈现以下几个特点：首先，降价潮从去年年底的一线城市向二三线城市漫延，并呈现逐步扩大的趋势；其次，更多的地方性开发商加入到降价行列，而不是仅限于典型的大牌房企；再次，中高端项目甚至是豪宅加入到降价的行列，这在过去几年的调控过程中是较少出现的。

Since 2012，Typical urban house prices show the following a few characteristics trend：first，From the end of last year the price boom a line to the city three lines spread over the city，And present gradually expand the trend；second，More local developers to join ranks price，But not limited to only the typical big room enterprises；again，In high-end projects, or even is a person of extraordinary powers curtilage to join the ranks of the price，This in the past few years in the process of the regulation is less emerged。

　　虽然到目前为止在各典型城市中降价跑量仍是主流，但随着市场交易量的持续复苏，大多数城市房价逐渐企稳已经是不争的事实，甚至有个别去年超跌的区域和项目价格已经出现回涨。在上海市场上，以上隽嘉苑（嘉定南翔）、三花现代城（宝山高境）为代表的去年大幅降价的旗帜性项目当前价格都有小幅回升，在深圳市场上更是已经出现房价普涨的现象，虽然涨幅普遍停留在每平米几百元的较低水平，但其昭示出来的信号意义却不容小觑。更值得玩味的是，这些价格回涨的项目普遍没有因为调整价格而滞销，以深圳为例，在5、6两月连续在全市热销排行榜上位于最前列的两个项目星河盛世和花半里清湖花园的价格都较前期有明显上涨。

Although so far in the typical cities in quantity price is still run the mainstream，But as the size of the market for recovery，Most urban house prices have gradually stabilising is the fact that does not dispute，Even some of the regions and the fall last year project price has appeared HuiZhang。In the Shanghai market in，Above experience jia estates（Jiading nanxiang）、3 flowers modern city（Baoshan GaoJing）As a representative of the last year of the cuts QiZhiXing project the current prices are small to bounce back，In shenzhen has appeared on house prices is the phenomenon of general goes up，Generally stay up though hundreds of yuan per square in the lower level，But the show out of the signal but meaning acceptance。More is worth pondering，The price of the project HuiZhang generally not because price adjustment and poor，In shenzhen as an example，In the five、6 for two months in the city in the list of sell like hot cakes in the forefront of two items in the milky spent half an ChengShiHe clear lake garden is the price of the early significantly higher。

　　另一方面，其实早在去年底，我们就曾经预言过2012年、尤其是下半年之后，企业降价的空间将明显萎缩，其理由主要有三点：其一，2012年市场上在售或者将要入市的项目其土地基本都是在09、10年楼市顺周期时购得，土地成本普遍偏高；其二，相当一部分房企、尤其是全国性品牌企业，去年以来的降价幅度已经较大，几乎达到自己的底线；其三，随着楼市的逐渐回暖，且政策环境逐步放松，未来楼市向好的预期在加深，房企也缺乏继续降价的动力。

On the other hand，In fact, long at the end of last year，Once we have predicted in 2012、Especially after the second half，The price will be significantly space enterprise atrophy，The main reason for the following three areas：one，In 2012 the market or are about to be sold in the market of the land is the basic project in 09、10 years when the cycle for property market，Land cost is higher；The second，Quite a number of room enterprises、Especially national brand enterprise，Since last year the cut prices have larger，Almost reach their bottom line；thirdly，With the housing market gets warmer，And the policy environment gradually relaxed，The future market is expected to good deepen，Room enterprises also lack the power to continue price cut。

　　近期典型城市涨价项目情况（数据来源：CRIC）

Recent typical cities project price（Data sources：CRIC）

　　上半年楼市回稳已成事实，对于下半年市场走势，我们认为将主要取决于政策面的变化，从当前宏观经济持续回落的状况来看，本轮调控房地产行业最困难的时期基本已经过去，如果当前这样一个趋于宽松的行业政策环境在下半年不发生根本性的转变的话，我们对本轮市场的整体回暖是持乐观态度的，具体来说，我们判断下半年重点城市市场将经历以下三个阶段。

Late in the first half property market has，For the second half of the market trends，We think will mainly depends on the change of the policy，From the current macroeconomic last fall situation，This regulation real estate industry's most difficult time basic have in the past，If the current such an easing of industry policy environment does not occur in the second half of fundamental shift words，This round of the overall markets we warmed is optimistic，Specific for，We judge key cities for the second half of the market will experience the following three stages。

　　第一阶段是7、8月份，作为传统淡季，成交量不太可能会继续延续6月份的上涨势头，即使有所回落也不足为奇。据CRIC统计，截止到7月15日，上海的成交量大约为41万方，北京约为63万方，广州则是41万方，按此成交预计，7月份的总成交量恐怕不会超越6月份的高点。房价方面，随着此前央行一个月内的两次降息，以及一些地方政府或明或暗的楼市微调，购房者的信心有望全面恢复，在此期间，以价换量大体仍将是主流，部分楼盘降幅开始收窄，其中个别项目价格会恢复到降价之前（2011年1月）。

The first stage is 7、August，As a traditional slack，Volume not likely to continue rising momentum in June，Even if it is not surprising that to drop back。According to the statistics CRIC，By July 15，Shanghai in the volume of sales is about 410000 square，Beijing is about 630000 square，Guangzhou is 410000 square，Click here is expected to clinch a deal，In July, the total volume I'm afraid not beyond June high。In house prices，After the central bank with a month two cuts，And some of the local government or bright or dark in the housing market fine-tuning，The confidence of the person that buy a house is expected to fully recover，In this period，To change the price of general will still is the mainstream，Part of the building by began to narrow，Its individual project price return to depreciate before（January 2011）。

　　第二阶段是金九银十，期间成交量有望出现井喷，创下今年、同时也是本轮调控以来的新高。房价方面，虽然今年政策环境较去年明显缓和不少，但去库存仍是房企的首要问题，供应放量、需求释放，金九银十将再次出现供不应求的局面，而随着市场交易量进一步增长，几乎所有楼盘的降幅将进一步收窄，大多数楼盘价格恢复到降价之前。

The second stage is the jin jiuyin 10，Volume is expected to appear during a blowout，Set this year、Also record high since this round of regulation。In house prices，Although this year than last year easing policy environment obviously many，But to inventory is still room the first question of enterprises，Y109.52 to supply、Demand release，Jin jiuyin 10 will appear again in short supply situation，But along with the market volume further growth，Almost all of the building dish drop further will narrow，Most of the estate price return to depreciate before。

　　第三阶段则是11、12月，预计期间市场将呈现高位盘整。如果说金九银十对于市场是在“量”上的冲高的话，那么年底的两月将是在“价”上的回调。在经历了金九银十的火热之后，房企的年度目标或许已经接近完成，绝大多数的楼盘已经没有降价的理由和必要了，房企回调项目售价有了充分的信心，房价整体上将出现稳中缓升的态势，而价格回涨的项目也将逐渐增多，从幅度上看我们认为将整体回到本轮降价前的水平。

The third stage is 11、December，During the market will present high expected consolidation。If jin jiuyin 10 for the market is in“quantity”The blunt words on high，So at the end of two months will be in“price”On callback。Experienced in the jin jiuyin 10 after the hot，Room of enterprises annual targets might have nearly complete，Most of the buildings have no price cut reason and necessary，Room enterprises callback project price the full confidence，The whole house prices will appear on the slow rise trend，But the price HuiZhang project will also increase gradually，Look from the range we think will return to this overall price level before。