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Core clew

　　从存款准备金率的调整，到在一个月的时间内两次降息，在诸多利好的刺激下，伴随着成交量的逐步回升，楼市回暖逐渐从趋势成为现实。原本属于淡季的五六月份，楼市的成交量却交出了一份不错的答卷。而全国的房价也在六月份结束了连续9个月以来的环比下跌趋势，开始回升。这些现象，是否意味着楼市要结束下行态势，开始迎来向上发展的拐点？下半年的楼市又将走向何处？

From the deposit reserve rate adjustment，In a month to the second time to cut interest rates，In many positive stimulating，With volume gradually to bounce back，Property market warms up gradually from trend to become a reality。Originally belongs to the off of the June or may，The housing market volume but surrendered a good paper。But the national house prices also ended in June for nine months of the trend down since November，rallied。These phenomena，Does that mean property market to end a descending trend，Start up in the development of a turning point？In the second half of the property market and will move toward where？

回暖的现实 Warms up in the reality

　　“五六月的行情已经印证了楼市转暖的现实，下半年的市场行情肯定比上半年还要好，所以我们准备要继续招人，扩大经营规模。”哈考特不动产的招聘人员告诉记者。省城周六举办的一场招聘会上，尽管来的招聘单位不是很多，但是几家房地产中介的招聘却格外显眼。显然，经历了去年以来难熬的日子，现在很多地产中介又开始憧憬下一轮的卖房热潮。

“The prices of June or may has confirmed the reality of warm property market，In the second half of the market must be even better than the first half，So, we're prepared to continue to employ people，Expand the scale of operation。”Harcourt the estate of the recruiters told reporters。On Saturday the provincial capital held a job fairs，Although the hiring of the unit is not to many，But several real estate intermediary recruitment but particularly conspicuous。obviously，Experienced difficult time since last year，Now a lot of real estate intermediary began to look forward to the next round of selling boom。

　　就济南市而言，在二手房领域，据搜房网二手房数据监控中心数据显示，6月份济南挂牌总量为67718套，环比5月份增加了5983套，涨幅为9.69%。本月的挂牌量、挂牌均价和成交量都再次创下了今年以来的新高。而新房的成交量同样取得了不俗的成绩。

Jinan is in，In secondhand the room area，According to search room net data monitoring center data showed that secondhand the room，In June the total for 67718 sets of jinan listing，In May 5983 the annulus increases sets，9.69% increase。This month is the listing、Average price and volume listed again hit record high since this year。And the new volume also achieved good results。

　　楼市的回暖正在从趋势演变为现实。据中国指数研究院的统计数据显示，6月份全国100个城市新建住宅平均价格为8688元/平方米，环比5月上涨0.05%，结束了自2011年9月以来连续9个月环比下跌的态势，止跌回升。

The housing market warms up is the evolution of the trend from reality。According to the research institute of China index statistics，In June, the country's 100 city new residence average price for 8688 yuan/square metre，November 5 month rose 0.05%，Over since September 2011 nine consecutive y/y falling trend，Rebounded reason。

楼市博弈加剧 Property market has game

　　对于楼市的回暖，受访者表示，尽管楼市回暖并不能与价格的上涨直接划等号，但相比较量的增加，购房者更担心价的上涨。

For the housing market buoyancy，Respondents said，Although property market warms up and can't and prices directly delimit equal-sign，But compared with the increase of the fight，The person that buy a house more worried about the price rise。

　　伴随着市场预期的改变，新房的价格也在悄然发生着变化。业内人士表示，在利好消息的影响下，省城的多处楼盘已经完成了“试探性”涨价，而部分热销楼盘优惠的幅度也在减少，酝酿涨价的楼盘开始增加。

Along with the change of market expectations，New home prices are quietly changing。People in the industry say，Under the influence of the good news，In the provincial capital building has been finished“exploratory”prices，And some of the sell like hot cakes the range building preferential in reducing，Prices began to increase building brewing。

　　“降息对于楼市肯定是好消息，不过如果房价再次大幅上涨的话，国家会不会出台相关的对冲政策？毕竟这些对于楼市的利好消息并不是专门针对房地产的。”购房者小杨看房已经有半年的时间，眼见楼市开始回暖，一方面尽管有着自己的判断，但是另一方面小杨也准备出手入市，同时也对政策寄予了更多的期望。“再说，前一段时间的调控也使得市场积累了一批的购房者，现在也会有一段时间的释放过程。”

“For the property market is certainly good news to cut interest rates，But if house prices rose sharply again words，Countries will not be available for related hedge policy？After all the good news for the housing market and is not specific to real estate。”The person that buy a house xiao Yang has been checking the time of half an year，Seeing housing market began to thaw，On the one hand despite his own judgment，But on the other hand xiao Yang also ready to make moves market，At the same time it had higher expectations of policy。“besides，A period of time before the regulation also makes the market a batch of accumulation of the person that buy a house，Now also can have a period of time release process。”

　　业内人士表示，在二手房领域，就济南而言，变化不是很大。近期由于房主也会看到已经发生变化的市场，开始推迟卖房。而在买卖双方的预期都发生变化的情况下，二手房的房价已经呈现出升高的趋势，而楼市的博弈也将进一步加剧。

People in the industry say，In secondhand the room area，Jinan is in，Change is not very big。Recent because homeowners see have changed market，Began to sell off。And in both parties expected all changing，Secondhand the room house prices has presented a rising trend，And the housing market game will also further intensifies。

回暖趋势不会加速 Thaw trends will speed up

　　记者了解到，上半年以来，开发商以价换量的销售策略成为楼市的主基调。在此背景下，一方面个别新推楼盘的价格要低于市场预期，另一方面以中小户型为主的销售结构也在很大程度上拉动了刚需人群的入市。在某种程度上，较低的价格成为搅动市场的主要因素。

The reporter understands，Since the first half，Development business with price change amount of sales strategy as the property market advocate fundamental key。In this context，On the one hand individual new push the price of building dish to below market expectations，On the other hand to small and medium-sized family primarily sales structure have largely to boosting just need people entering the market。In some extent，Lower prices be stirred the main factors of market。

　　业内人士表示，开发商基本已经度过了最难熬的时间。就济南的情况而言，供略大于需。下半年的情况，价格不会呈现爆发式的反弹，将会出现以价换量以及价格的缓慢上涨并存的局面。

People in the industry say，Developers have already passed the basic of the hardest time。Jinan is the case，Slightly greater than the need for。Situation in the second half of the year，The price will not present BaoFaShi rebound，Will appear to change the price of the rising prices and slow the coexistence of the situation。

　　专家表示，虽然新的降息政策并非针对楼市而来，但在开发商的促销以及差别化的信贷政策等多种因素的共同作用下，一部分购房者的需求被调动起来。但这并不能意味楼市的拐点来临。国家现在储备的政策很多，如果在房价出现大幅反弹的情况下，不排除出台新政策的可能性。

Experts say，Although the new policy not to cut interest rates on property market，But in the promotion of the differentiation and development business credit policy under the common function of many factors，Part of the person that buy a house needs be aroused。But this does not mean that the housing market inflection point coming。Countries are now reserves many policy，If in house prices appear rebound sharply，Don't rule out the possibility of new policies。

　　“降息对于楼市显然是一个利好，但更大的意义在于淡化了购房者对于市场的预期。但此次降息不会加速回暖的趋势，对房地产影响最深的还是限购、限贷等政策。”山东中原地产总经理王鑫表示。(刘江波)

“For the property market rate cut is obviously a positive news，But the greater significance is weakened the buyers for market expectations。But the fed won't accelerate warms up in the trend，The influences of real estate or 限购、Limit credit policies。”Shandong centaline property general manager nature conservancy council said。(LiuJiangBo)