经过多年的摸索之后，我国的房地产调控政策如今已经形成了一个复杂的体系。在笔者看来，诸多措施当中的某些部分是比较适当和有益的，而另一些则急需调整；其中，尤以在融资渠道上对房地产企业进行严格限制和百般打压的做法最为不当，相关的歧视性政策应当尽数取消。笔者的建议是，应当尽快恢复向开发商正常进行贷款，并允许其正常发行股票，以便确保市场供应。

After many years of exploration later，China's real estate control policy now have formed a complex system。In the author looks，Many of the measures of the part is more appropriate and some beneficial，While others need adjustments；Among them，Especially in the financing channels of real estate in the enterprise to carry on the strict limit to make the practice and various most inappropriate，Related of discriminatory policies should be jinshu cancelled。The author's suggestion is，Should be resumed as soon as possible to developers of loans to normal，And allow its normal issuing stock，In order to ensure that the market supply。

　　调控政策出台了千条万条，却有一条似乎被忘记了，那就是归根到底，供求关系决定一切；房地产问题的解决，最终要靠造越来越多的房子。房子多了，房价便宜了，广大人民才能有房可住，才能住得宽敞。这就是房地产业的基本功能和根本目的之所在。在这一点上，这一行业与其他任何产业都是一样的。例如，改革开放之初，冰箱、洗衣机、电视机都是时髦的紧俏货，也是高价商品，怎么办呢？办法就是引进技术，扩大生产。许多企业转产家用电器，这才使得广大人民如今普遍用上了这些物美价廉的物品。

Control policies issued a，But there is a seems to be forgotten，That is in the final analysis，Supply and demand to determine all；Real estate solution of the problems，Relies on the made more and more of the house。More house，House price cheap，The people to have a house can live，To live and capacious。This is the basic function of real estate industry and the ultimate purpose of the serengeti。At this point，The industry and any other industry are the same。For example，At the beginning of the reform and opening up，The refrigerator、Washing machine、Television is fashionable JinQiaoHuo，Is also higher priced goods，How to do？Way is to introduce technology，Expand production。Many enterprises over the household electrical appliances，This just makes the people now use the common these cheap goods。

　　然而，房价大幅上涨之后，却出现了很多奇谈怪论，一说是房价上涨是房地产商操纵的结果，因此很多人仇视给大家造房子的人。另一说比较“专业化”，即房价是资金炒作的结果。这些看法结合起来，导致政府开始实行一种报复性的政策，即指示银行向房地产商减少资金供应，指示证监会暂缓核准房地产公司的股票发行。断你的供，看你降不降价！

however，After property prices，But there was a lot of ridiculous opinions，One say is rising house prices is the result of the manipulation of the real estate business，So many people hate for everyone to build。The other is said to“professional”，That house prices is the result of the hype funds。These views together，Cause the government began to implement a vindictive policy，That is to reduce the real estate business, instruct the bank money supply，The suspension of the real estate company approved by CSRC instructions to the share issue。Break your for，See you drop don't reduce the price！

　　可是，经济规律是无情的。开发商怎么会为了造新房子而贱卖旧房子呢？大不了不上新项目罢了；加之消费者通过预售制度源源不断地向开发商提供资金，所以开发商的日子还是过得去的。而在这个节骨眼儿上，政府不断地强调耕地“红线”，土地供应没有相应地、足额地跟上，结果是房价长期在高位运行，且持续走高。

but，Economic law is relentless。Developers to build a new house and how old house for sale？Big deal on new projects not only；Together with consumers through the open to booking system to developers continue to provide the funds，So developers time is ok。And in the Nick of time son，The government keeps emphasis on cultivated land“Red line”，Land supply no accordingly、Full specified amount to keep up with，The result is long-term highs in house prices，And rising。

　　最近进行的一轮调控，是自2010年4月17日“新国十条”颁布以来所实行的包括“限购”、大规模推出保障房等一系列政策。从房价近两年的走势来看，调控政策终于产生了一些效力，这说明政策组合当中至少某些部分是对头的。例如，“限购”政策虽然过于严厉，但严格控制投机性需求的大方向应当是正确的。考虑到房地产业的确具有一些特殊性，以及我国人口众多的现实，这应当成为长期坚持的基本国策尽管具体的管理措施应不断调整和完善。在笔者看来，“限时开发”也是一条有益的政策。在我国现行的以国有土地为主导的格局之下，这项政策具有特殊的微妙之处；对此我们将在后文再作论述。

Recent round of regulation，Is the on April 17, 2010“Article ten new countries”Since issued that the including“限购”、Large-scale launched a series of policy guarantee room。House prices in the past two years from the trend and see，Control policies finally created some effect，This shows that at least some part of policy combination is the adversary。For example，“限购”Policy although is too harsh，But strictly control the speculative demand of the roads should be correct。Considering the real estate industry really has some particularity，And the reality of our country population，This should be the basic state policy of insist for a long time though concrete measures should constantly adjust and management perfect。In the author looks，“Prompt development”Is a good policy。Under our country's present to state-owned land as dominant under pattern，The policy is a special subtleties；This we will be discussed in the article。

　　在诸多不当的政策当中，尤以限制和打压房地产企业融资的政策最为错误。在房屋预售制度和按揭制度下，买方的预付款是开发商的主要资金来源之一。可是，以往松弛的按揭政策虽然支持了房屋建设和供应，却也诱发了需求的飙升。如果需求增长速度快于供应增长速度，房价当然就不会下跌。需要认识到的是，同样是供应资金，把资金直接提供给买方与直接提供给卖方的效果是大不相同的。另一方面，限购政策虽然造成了需求缩减，但是按揭贷款金额也大幅下降；这就导致房地产商的资金来源告急，他们又怎么能够积极地去造房子呢？统计资料显示，今年上半年全国房地产开发企业的土地购置面积和新开工面积都出现了明显的下降。这表明，由此造成的资金缺口急需得到填补。

In many of the improper policy，Especially in the restrictions and crack down on real estate enterprise financing policies most errors。In the house to open to booking system and mortgage system，The buyer of the advance payment is one of the main source of funds developers。but，Before the relaxation of the mortgage policy although support housing construction and supply，But also cause the soaring demand。If demand growing at a faster pace than supply growth，House prices of course will not fall。Need to realize is，The same is supply funds，Put money directly to the buyer and provide directly provide the seller effect is not the same。On the other hand，限购 policy although caused demand cut，But mortgage loan amount has dropped dramatically；This leads to the real estate business capital source of menace，How can they can actively take to build a house？Statistics show that，In the first half of this year the national real estate development enterprise purchase land area and new commenced area there were significantly reduced。This suggests that，Resulting from the urgent need funding gap to fill。

　　限制房地产企业在金融市场中直接进行正常融资活动的政策本来就是错误的；这一政策自始就不应该出台。直接提供资金给企业，使它们有条件多造房子，同时又不会诱发需求增加，这是多么好的事情啊！所以，为全民的住房福利计，对房地产企业的融资不但不应当限制，而且应当期待房地产企业的融资能力能够得到充分利用。至少，政策制定者应当把开发商当作正常企业来予以看待，让银行、投资者、买方和开发商自由协商投融资条款，以便充分周转资金和利用资源。

Limit the real estate enterprise in financial markets directly normal financing activities policy was wrong；The policy from the beginning to should not come。Direct fund to the enterprise，They have made the house more than conditions，At the same time, won't cause increased demand，This is a good thing！so，For the national housing welfare program，On the real estate enterprise financing not only should not limit，And should be looking forward to real estate enterprise financing capacity can be used fully。At least，Policy makers should put the developers as normal enterprise to look at，Let the bank、investors、The buyer and developers free consultation investment and financing terms，In order to fully turnover funds and use of resources。

　　一些人认为向开发商供应资金就会引起地价上涨，进而引起房价上涨；这里的逻辑关系并不正确。以我国近年汽车市场的状况为例。汽车旺销的时候整车厂家进行扩产，这导致了上游零配件价格上涨；但是，这种涨价并不必然导致整车价格上涨。由于各整车厂家都在迅速扩产，其结果是整车价格竟然连年持续下降，整车厂家的毛利率也随之降低。然而，经过薄利多销，汽车企业仍然获取了丰厚的利润。这就是一个产业发展和成熟的过程，也是一个非常健康的过程。同理，在适当的需求管理之下，通过向房地产业敞开供应资金，辅之以“限时开发”政策，只要供应的增长超过了需求的增长，成品房价格就不会上涨，地价的上涨也就无法传导到房价上。政策制订者一定要认识到这是两码子事。

Some people think that money supply to the developers would cause the land price rise，And then cause rising house prices；Here the logical relationship is not correct。In the condition of the car market in China in recent years as an example。Car when the vehicle manufacturers are flourishing sold expansion，This leads to the upper parts prices；but，The price does not necessarily lead to the vehicle prices。Because each vehicle manufacturers are fast expansion，The result is the vehicle prices unexpectedly in successive years continue to decline，The vehicle manufacturers gross margin also decreases。however，After small profits and quick turnover，Car companies still get rich profit。This is a industry development and mature process，It is also a very healthy process。similarly，In the proper demand under management，Through to the real estate industry open capital supply，Complementary with“Prompt development”policy，As long as the supply increased more than the demand，Finished housing product price will not rise，The rising price of land cannot be transmitted to house prices。Policy-makers must realize that this is nothing of the two。

　　房地产企业不能获得“正常融资者”的地位，还与以下认识有关，即房地产业是资金密集型行业，系统效应显著，因而需要对其融资活动进行严格的监管。我们不否认防范金融风险的重要性，也愿意对监管部门的警惕性表示赞赏，可是，我们要问以下的问题：1、防范金融风险的考虑是否足以导致监管部门对房地产企业采取歧视性的政策？尤其是在房地产大牛市中持续多年地实行这种歧视性的政策？这难道不是“在水紧处捉鱼”吗？事实表明，房地产企业贷款的违约率在过去多年中一直非常低，所以监管是否过度了呢？2、过度的监管导致了房屋供应不足，由此导致房价长期运行在高位，泡沫越滚越大，难道这就是降低金融风险的正确途径吗？3、尤其令人不解的是，假如银行贷款会增加金融风险的话，为什么不允许房地产企业在股市中进行股本融资呢？后者难道不正是降低金融风险之道吗？

Real estate enterprise can't get“Normal issuer”position，Also with the following know about，That is the real estate industry is capital intensive industries，System effect significantly，Therefore need to its financing activities to a strict supervision。We do not deny the importance of preventing financial risks，Also willing to regulatory vigilance to show your appreciation，but，We will ask the following questions：1、Preventing financial risks is enough to consider whether supervision department of real estate enterprise take discriminatory policy？Especially in real estate in the big bull market for years to implement this discriminatory policy？Isn't this“In the water JinChu catch fish”?？The fact that，Real estate enterprise loan defaults in the past years has been very low，So whether the excessive regulation？2、Excessive regulation led to the housing supply，Which leads to long-term operation in house prices high，The foam larger and larger，Is this the right way to reduce financial risk？3、An especially is uncertain，If the bank loans will increase financial risk words，Why not allow real estate enterprise in the stock market in equity financing？The latter wasn't it the way of to reduce financial risk？

　　所以，对于如此有违经济常识的政策，我们呼吁尽快予以取消。调控政策效果不彰，原因就在于好政策的效果在很大程度上被这些坏政策抵消掉了。应当限制的是按揭贷款，应当放开的是企业贷款和募股；前期的政策恰好弄反了。政府应当支持房地产企业千方百计扩大生产，积极竞争，尽快走上薄利多销之路。积极因素再长几分，消极因素再减几分，供求关系也许就会发生根本性的逆转。至于企业的事情，自有企业自己通盘考虑，自行负责，政府不必过于担心个别企业的破产问题。即使个别银行因此遭受一些损失，也不必过于忧心忡忡。银行对一个行业的放款，一般应当容忍一定的违约率；一个行业中的企业，一般也应有一定的破产率；这才是建立有效的、负责任的监管的适当基础。应当身处风险之中来监管风险。如果硬要建立某种远离风险的理想经济体系，其结果只能是一厢情愿，浪费社会资源，最终反而会引起更大的风险。

so，Contrary to common sense to such economic policy，We call for the cancelled as soon as possible。Control policy ineffective，Reason is that good policy in effect is largely these bad policy cancel out。Is the mortgage shall be restricted，Let go of is the enterprise shall be loans and offerings；Just get the policy against。The government shall support the real estate enterprise leave no stone unturned to expand production，Positive competition，On road of the small profits and quick turnover as soon as possible。Positive factors of long again，Negative factors to lose a few minutes，Supply and demand would probably be radically reversed。As for the enterprise things，His own enterprise overall consideration，Responsible for their own，The government don't worry too much of the individual enterprise bankruptcy problem。Even if the individual Banks suffer from some losses，Also need not too worried。The bank for a loan industry，Shall generally be tolerate certain default rate；An industry in enterprise，General also have its bankruptcy rate；This is the establishment of effective、Responsible for the proper foundation of supervision。Should be in risk to regulatory risk。If stubbornly establish some of the economic system risk away from ideal，The result can only be wishful thinking，Waste of social resources，Eventually it will lead more risk。

　　保障房措施终非正道。在总结历史经验教训的基础上，我国房地产业应当回到“以市场机制为主，辅之以适当政府干预”的轨道上来，两方面的措施都不可偏废。在现行体制下，本人推荐一种“敞开供地+敞开企业融资+限时开发+高额累进房产税+促进房屋流通”的政策组合。关于这一建议的其他方面，我们将在下一期再作论述。

Security measures at the room right way。At the conclusion of the historical experiences and lessons basis，Our country should return to the real estate industry“With market mechanism to give priority to，Assisted by appropriate government intervention”The track of，Two measures have not suppressed。In the current system，I recommend a“Open for the open enterprise financing + + limited development + high property taxes + promote progressive house circulation”Policy mix。About the proposal in other ways，We will be discussed in the next period。