“烂尾”之忧  文/《财经国家周刊》见习记者 姚一然 2012年07月08日

“Lousy tail”Worry about  Article /《Financial country weekly》Trainee reporter yao a ran jul 2012 08,

　　投资过剩、库存积压，中国的二三线城市，已部分出现上世纪海口、北海那样的烂尾楼充斥的“烂尾之城”

Excess investment、inventory，China's two three line city，Already part of the last century in haikou、The north sea that lousy poop filled“Lousy tail city”

　　一个月前，包头最大的房企老板魏刚选择上吊自杀，以此结束高利贷带来的资金链压力——其正在开发建设的项目中数栋高层陷入停滞，成为一片尚未封顶的烂尾楼。

A month ago，Baotou the biggest room enterprises WeiGang boss choose commit suicide by hanging suicide，In order to end usury with capital chain-the pressure of the construction of the project is developing several high-rise stalled，Become a lousy poop has not yet been capped。

　　在游资蜂拥的包头、鄂尔多斯(600295,股吧)房地产市场，这样的烂尾项目只是冰山一角。

In the capital of bees, baotou、ordos(600295,Shares it)Real estate market，Such lousy tail project is just the tip of the iceberg。

　　目前，包头的240个在建项目中，约有90%陷于停工，几十个塔吊安静地停在原地。这些停工的项目中，因为房企老板跑路而造成的烂尾比例大约在15%。在楼市曾经极度红火的鄂尔多斯，去年有2000万平米的开工项目，今年几乎全部停工。

At present，Baotou 240 construction projects，About 90% into shutdown，Dozens of crane quietly standing down。The shutdown of the project，Because room enterprises run by the boss way bad tail ratio at about 15%。In the housing market have extremely prosperous of ordos，Last year there were 2000 square meters of construction projects，Almost all this year to stop。

　　呼包鄂三市近几年借力采矿业，借势全国房地产市场，发展速度十分强劲。其背后，是游资、高利贷在房地产市场的单一押注。

Call the three cities a bag in recent years borrows the mining，Taking advantage of real estate market across the country，Development speed is very strong。Behind the，Is hot money、The single in the real estate market usury and note。

　　随着国家在房地产市场的限贷和限购调控，去年下半年，包头和鄂尔多斯的住宅销售市场关闭。持续的滞销局面，终于拖垮了靠高利贷维系的房企资金链。

As countries in the real estate market of the limited loans and 限购 regulation，The second half of last year，Baotou and the housing market closed ordos sales。Continuous slow-moving situation，Finally sapped by the room to maintain usury capital chain enterprises。

　　几年前，全国房地产投资过度，开发过剩，给城市经济发展带来的后遗症正在逐步显现。这些投资过剩、遭遇房地产崩盘危机、经济需战略转型的二三线城市，究竟会受到哪些影响？

A few years ago，The national real estate investment excessive，Development surplus，The city's economic development to the hangover is gradually appear。The excess investment、The real estate crash in crisis、The economic need to strategic transformation of two three line city，What will be affected by what influence？

　　冰山一角 The tip of the iceberg

　　包头中铁房地产开发有限责任公司市场部部长陈德营说，“受魏刚事件的影响，整个包头6月的房地产市场销售量已经受到严重影响，其实所谓的销售量，也只是针对几个尚且还有动静的项目而已。现在包头大约240个项目中，只有恒大、中铁、保利、三江（杭州三江国际置业集团有限公司）这些大的房企还在动工，其他的项目都已经停工”。

Baotou iron real estate development Co., LTD. The Marketing Department minister ChenDeYing said，“The effects of the event of WeiGang by，The whole baotou June's real estate market sales have severely affected，In fact the so-called sales，Also only for a few have and action project just。Now about 240 projects in baotou，Only persistence big、China railway、poly、sanjiang（Hangzhou sanjiang international real estate group Co., LTD）The big room in construction enterprises，Other projects have been shut down”。

　　按照包头市的公开数据，截至2012年4月，包头市全市房地产项目在建规模2414.3万平方米，前4个月共竣工房地产项目为196.2万平方米，占总建项目的8.12%。

Baotou according to public data，By April 2012，The whole city baotou of real estate project under construction scale 24.143 million square meters，4 months before completion of real estate project for 1.962 million square meters，8.12% of the total building projects。

　　尽管包头依托当地的实体经济，房地产开发建设相对理性，但是在大环境下也不能独善其身。业内人士介绍，在游资过多的包头，当地的房地产开发企业，自有资金的比例只有10%~20%，更多资金来源于高利贷借贷。按照包头市住房保障和房屋管理局的资料，包头现有开发项目的房地产开发企业共198家，其中公示的房地产开发二级资质为14个。

Although the real economy, rely on local baotou，The real estate development and construction relatively rational，But in general also cannot possess。The personage inside course of study introduces，In the hot money too much baotou，Local real estate development enterprises，The proportion of their own money, only 10% ~ 20%，More money from usurious lending。According to city baotou housing safeguard and the housing authority of the material，Baotou existing development project of real estate development enterprise 198 home，One of the public real estate development 2 class aptitude for 14。

　　由于没有资金实力，再加上销售停滞，一些包头房地产老板开始“跑路”。据当地一位开发商介绍，这个比例要占到10%~15%。开发商“跑路”，项目不能按时交房，集体追要房款的情况多次在包头出现。

Since there is no financial strength，Plus sales stalled，Some baotou real estate the boss started“Run road”。According to a local developers is introduced，This ratio to 10% ~ 15%。developers“Run road”，The project cannot pay on time，Collective back to the house several times in baotou appear。

　　曾经引发延迟交房风波的万和城，由当地开发商九合置业公司开发。《财经国家周刊》记者到达项目现场的时候，总建筑面积达70万平米的项目没有售楼部。建好的房子前垃圾一片。

Have triggered delay to pay storm and the city，The local developers jiuhe home buyers company development。《Financial country weekly》Reporters arrived at the site of the project，The total construction area of 70 square meters of the project has not sales department。Built before a house garbage。

　　物业办公室的售楼人员告诉记者，一期建好的房子7月1日就要交房，但对于二期的交房时间，4个售楼人员说法不一，甚至自相矛盾。记者在采访的时候，正好碰到一个“自认为很倒霉”的张女士，她说自己原来在包头中冶置业开发的番茄社区买了房，后来因为那里延期一年交房，就买到了万和城，结果不久就听说这个老板卷款跑掉了。

The estate management office building staff told reporters，A good house built of July 1, will make a room，But for the second phase of time making a room，4 sales personnel explanations，Or even self-contradictory。Reporter in an interview，Just met a“Think very unlucky”Ms chang，She said she was ZhongYe home buyers in baotou the development of tomato community bought a house，There a year later because the delay makes a room，Just bought and the city，The results soon heard that the boss of roll ran away。

　　针对包头的停工项目，包头市房管局信息中心主任魏宇雷说，像魏刚这样的停工项目只是少数，至于存在的其他停工项目，原因主要为项目正处于冬歇期，由于包头地理位置原因，冬歇期的时间一般是从每年的11月到第二年的5月初，因此开工的项目可能会偏少。

In baotou work stoppage project，Baotou room canal, director of the center WeiYuLei said information，Like WeiGang such shutdown projects are in a minority，As for the existence of the other shutdown project，The main reason for the project is in the winter break，Due to the geographical position of baotou reasons，The winter break time from the general every November in the second years of early may，So the project may have started too few。

　　二三线危机 Two, three lines crisis

　　作为内蒙古的首府，呼和浩特市的情况也并不乐观。据当地一位房地产业内人士介绍，呼市目前约有100多个在建房地产开发项目，正在开工的都是以前的续建项目，即已有客户预订，必须要交房的项目。

As the capital of Inner Mongolia，The situation is not optimistic upward。According to a local real estate the personage inside course of study introduces，There are more than 100 huhhot now about real estate development projects under construction，Are constructed that previously had been allocated to the project，That existing customer reservation，Must make a room of the project。

　　呼市房管局称自去年就不再对媒体和社会公开相关的数据。而据不完全统计，目前呼市的商品房总量在1000多万平米的建筑面积，人口总量约为200多万。上述业内人士说，尽管呼市有一定的流动人口，但消费人群有限，每年的销售面积保持在140万平米左右。如果停止新建项目，呼市的现有商品房约需要6年来消化。

Huhhot room canal since last year to no longer will say media and social public of the relevant data。And according to not complete count，At present the commodity house of huhhot in more than 1000 total square meters of construction area，The total population is about more than 200。The above the personage inside course of study says，Although huhhot have certain floating population，But consumers limited，The sales area every year to keep in the 140 square metres。If you stop new projects，Huhhot existing commodity house about need six years the digestion。

　　《财经国家周刊》记者调研期间，正值端午。为了消化现有存量房，呼市不少楼盘开始优惠促销，打折力度不一，其中不乏恒大、中海等大型房地产商。

《Financial country weekly》Reporters during the investigation，When dragon boat。In order to digest the existing stock room，Many buildings began to discount promotion huhhot，Discount strength is differ，There is no lack of among them evergrande、China and other large real estate business。

　　中海地产自2010年3月进入呼市以来，先后开发了5个项目，在国家限购的环境下，正在通过高开低走策略和以价换量，回笼资金。

China real estate from March 2010 to since huhhot，Have developed five projects，In the country 限购 environment，Is through the highs in price change strategies and quantity，receivables。

　　与之相比，已陷入鄂尔多斯金融危机泥潭的星河湾项目，这次似乎打了一个死结。

Compared with，Already in ordos financial crisis mire of the Milky Way of project，This seemed to play a Gordian knot。

　　尽管星河湾项目已于今年3月完全复工，但在业内人士看来，表面上的复工和解套，实际上可能会越陷越深。

Although star river project already in March this year return to work completely，But in the industry looks，Return to work on the surface of reconciliation，May actually deeper。

　　根据统计，从2011年7月份开盘两个月内，星河湾已经投入资金100亿元，但同期获得的销售收入不足投入的五分之一。从今年5月份开始，星河湾就开始了一系列的降价措施。但在目前的形势下，原来的目标群体部分深陷高利贷漩涡，已经没有充裕资金购买此类高端住宅。按照规划，40栋高端住宅将和奢华的园林于2013年年底完工。如今，除了正在开工的40栋高层，其余大面积的土地还是原始土地。

According to the statistics，From July, 2011 opened two months，Star river has invested 10 billion yuan，But for the same period the sales income of less than one 5 of the input。From this year started in May，Star river began a series of reduction measures。But in the present situation，The original target group in vortex of usury，Has not the abundant funds to buy such high-end residential building。According to the planning，High-end residential building will be 40 and luxurious landscape is expected to end in 2013。now，In addition to the tall building construction is 40，The rest of the large area of land or the original land。

　　目前，在鄂尔多斯新建的2000多万平米的住宅开工量中，尚在开工状态的楼盘仅有4个。鄂尔多斯当地一位开发商告诉记者，从2006年至今，鄂尔多斯已经有过亿平米的开发量， 2011年开工建设2000万平米，2010年为4000万平米，2009年为3200万平米，人均保有住宅量已经达到50平米。

At present，In ordos new 2000 square meters of residential KaiGongLiang，Still in the state of the start building only four。Ordos a local developers told reporters，From 2006 to now，Ordos has had the back hurriedly she square meters， Construction began in 2011 2000 square meters，2010 for 4000 square meters，2009 for 3200 square meters，Per capita keep residential volume has reached 50 square meters。

　　除了住宅市场，在当地金融危机影响下，鄂尔多斯外地人口的骤减和当地人消费能力的降低，也使得多数商业广场选择“关门大吉”，还未竣工的王府井(600859,股吧)商业广场早已停建。

In addition to the housing market，In the local financial crisis under the influence，Ordos outside the fast and local population reduced consumption ability，Also makes the most commercial plaza choice“closed”，Has not completed the wangfujing(600859,Shares it)Commercial plaza had stopped。

　　包头和鄂尔多斯房地产市场，或许是二、三线城市房地产投资过剩、库存积压的缩影。

Baotou and ordos the real estate market，Maybe two、Three city real estate investment excess、Inventory in miniature。

　　今年5月，因对公务员购房实行现金补贴而进入公众视野的辽宁营口，房地产供应量远大于需求量。据2011年底的统计数据显示，营口市新竣工和存量的住宅面积总量已达4800万平方米，如果按照每套房面积为100平米和每3人拥有一套住房来计算，未来营口市需要增加近150万的人口，才能消化掉现有的住宅存量房，而目前营口市的人口总量仅230万。

In may this year，For a cash purchase of civil servants and into the public subsidies liaoning in the view of yingkou，Real estate supply far outweigh the demand。According to the statistics show that by the end of 2011，YingKouShi new completion and stock total residential area of 48 million square meters，If in every room area is 100 square meters and every three people possess a housing to calculate，Future YingKouShi need to increase the population of nearly 1.5 million，To digest the existing housing stock room，And at present YingKouShi the population is only 2.3 million。

　　近日，媒体曝出在河北唐山，开始出现多个项目停建或者缓建的现象，在调控的重压之下，当地由于资金链发生断裂的中小开发商不在少数，原来开盘即被抢购的楼盘，现在工地上十分冷清。

recently，The media to expose in tangshan city, hebei province，Start to appear more project is stopped or delayed phenomenon，In the regulation of under pressure，Local because capital chain fracturing of small and medium-sized developers is not a few，The original open quotation is snapping up building，Now the site is very cold and cheerless。

　　在长沙，自去年下半年以来，已经9个项目的房企老板因资金压力而“跑路”。全国房地产经理人联盟副秘书长、地产研究员金承龙表示，因老板“跑路”而出现的烂尾项目，在全国其他二三线城市也在发生。

In changsha，Since the second half since last year，The room has 9 projects because of money pressure and the enterprises“Run road”。The national real estate managers union deputy secretary-general、Real estate JinChengLong researchers said，Because the boss“Run road”And appear lousy tail project，In the other two, three lines city also is in produce。

　　除去住宅地产，二、三线城市中商业地产的投资过热也不容忽视。

Remove residential property，two、Three lines in the city commercial real estate investment overheating also nots allow to ignore。

　　在成都，已经开工建设的商业综合体已经达到150个，未来还将增加1000万平米的商业面积。在沈阳“金廊工程”的核心部位青年大街，按照规划到2013年将建有近200栋、总建筑面积近1600万平方米的商业大楼，其中由浙江华丰集团开发的商业广场因为资金紧张，已经不能按照规划复工。

In chengdu，Construction of commercial complexes have has reached 150，The future will also increase of 1000 square meters of business area。In shenyang“Gold corridor project”The core part of youth street，According to the planning to 2013 will be built nearly 200 building、The total construction area of nearly 16 million square meters of commercial building，Among them by zhejiang huafeng group development of commercial plaza because of funds，Have already can't return to work in accordance with the plan。

　　“救市”出路 “Help city”Way out

　　今年以来，各地方政府接连对限购政策微调，6月关于楼市回暖的声音也逐渐增强。作为内蒙古的行政中心，呼和浩特市在以价换量的力促下，3月到5月，商品房的网签量从1054套、1197套升至1203套，呈现小幅上涨。

Since this year，The local government to 限购 on fine-tuning，June about property market warms up in the voice also gradually strengthened。As the Inner Mongolia administrative center，Huhhot city to price in the amount of change under urges，March to may，Commodity house nets sign capacity from 1054 sets、Of 1197 to 1203 sets，Present a modest rise。

　　这样的小幅上涨难以改变烂尾之忧，包头和鄂尔多斯楼市依然无明显回暖的迹象，一批资金沉淀在不动工的“不动产”上，企业的销售收入停止了循环。

Such a small rise to change bad tail of sorrow，Baotou and ordos property market has no obvious signs of warmer still，A group of funds in the construction of precipitation“Real estate”on，Enterprise's sales income stopped cycle。

　　对于这些停工的项目的出路，包头市房管局认为，可以通过进一步的融资重新开工，或者通过兼并重组，将这些待建项目进行兼并处理。

For these shutdown of the way of the project，Baotou in that room canal，Can through further financing working again，Or through m&a，Will these to be built projects merger deal with。

　　按照呼市房管局的公开资料，呼市2012年房地产新开工总量，由2011年的661万平方米调整为400万平方米，以规避房地产供给过剩。一位呼市的房地产业内人士说，如果企业实在受不了，也可以将房子卖给政府，政府用来做保障性住房，政府到时候将土地款退回给开发商，再按照建筑成本回购房子。

According to the public information huhhot room canal，In 2012 the real estate construction starts in huhhot total，By 2011 the 6.61 million square meters is adjusted for 4 million square meters，To circumvent the surplus supply of real estate。One of the real estate industry insiders said huhhot，If the enterprise can't stand，Can also will house sold to the government，The government used for affordable housing，When will the government land funds returned to developers，According to the construction cost to buy a house。

　　2月28日，鄂尔多斯市政府联合当地财政局、发展和改革委员会、金融工作办公室、煤炭局等多部门，颁布实施了《鄂尔多斯市人民政府关于加强房地产市场调控促进房地产业持续健康发展的意见》，其后，又在5月份出台了21条措施，其中力争新建项目6月底全部复工；特别支持煤炭、羊绒行业商品存货贷；发展装备制造业；规范发展民间借贷等。这样的鼓励政策短时间内能不能见到效果尚待观察。

February 28,，Ordos city government joint local bureau of finance、Development and reform committee、Financial office、MeiTanJu department etc，Promulgated for implementation the《Ordos city people's government on strengthening the real estate market regulation to promote the sustainable and healthy development of real estate industry of opinion》，after，And in May on the article 21 measures，One new project to return to work all at the end of June；Special support coal、Cashmere industry goods in stock loans；The development of the equipment manufacturing industry；Criterion development folk lending, etc。Such policies can encourage short time can't see the effect is yet to be observed。

　　内蒙古社科院研究所所长于光军认为，以前鄂尔多斯认为金钱可以买到现代化，但是现在看来存在许多难题，原因有两个：一是在我国人口负增长的大环境下，鄂尔多斯人口增长不易；二是经济发展水平滞后，高端智慧化服务不足，吸纳外来人口的能力不够强。

Inner Mongolia, director of the academy YuGuangJun think，Ordos before that money can buy modernization，But now it appears that there are many problems，For two reasons：One is the population in China under the environment of negative growth，Ordos population growth is not easy；2 it is economic development lag，High-end wisdom of insufficient service，The ability of absorbing foreign population is not strong。

　　关注全国商业地产的中国商业联合会专家委员董利认为，尽管国家在利息、利率等宏观金融政策上放宽松，但是鄂尔多斯的情况只能等待城镇化逐步地自我消化。

Focus on the national commercial real estate of China's commercial association DongLi expert commissioner of that，Although the national in interest、Interest rates on macro monetary policy easing，But ordos status only waiting for urbanization gradually self digestion。

　　不过，也有业内专家认为，从全国角度看，这种投资过剩只是表面现象，真正的问题在于开发结构、销售机制和定价水平。只要坚持国家调控政策，逼着开发商去改价格、改结构，未来这些看起来投资过剩的住房就有出路。现在市场上真正的僵局还没有打破，如果中央能坚持调控政策，真正的时刻必然到来。到时，房地产开发商为了生存收缩盈利空间，普遍降价，商品住宅会有望迎来春天。

but，Also the expert inside course of study thinks，From the Angle，This investment surplus is only superficial phenomenon，The real problem is that development structure、Sales mechanism and pricing levels。As long as we persist in national adjustment and control policies，Force developers to change the price、Change structure，These look of excess investment future housing is way out。Now in the market really deadlock has not broken，If the central government can hold to control policies，The real time will come。then，Real estate developers to survive contraction profit space，General price cut，Will the commodity residential house are expected to enjoy the spring。

　　楼市回涨萌动 Property market HuiZhang germinating

　　“稳增长”的系列政策，成为楼市回暖的救命稻草。

“Steady growth”Series of policy，Be property market warms up to help straw。

　　7月2日，中国指数研究院公布报告，6月全国100个城市新建住宅平均价格环比5月上涨0.05%，结束了自2011年9月份以来的连续9个月的环比下跌态势。全国100个城市有45个城市环比上涨，55个城市环比下跌，与5月相比，6月环比下跌的城市个数减少18个。环比下跌的城市以三线城市居多。

July 2,，China index academy report released，June in over 100 cities new residence average price annulus comparing may up 0.05%，Over since 2011 in September for nine months since the fall of the annulus trend。In over 100 cities have 45 a city rising annulus，55 city annulus comparing decline，Compared with may，6 the city to reduce the number of falling y/y 18。The fall of the city with three month-on-month city are in the majority。

　　中国指数研究院副院长黄瑜分析，部分楼盘在获得较好销售业绩后开始取消折扣甚至略调高价格，是6月百城住宅价格环比止跌的原因。

China index, vice President of the institute HuangYu analysis，Part of the building in obtain good sales performance to cancel the discount even slightly raise prices，Is June stores in house prices in the cause of the reason annulus。

　　对于楼市的复苏态势，中国房地产学会副会长陈国强认为，数据确实说明楼市在回暖，但判定市场回暖需要诸多条件，包括房地产开发投资的指标和购地的表现。近两个月的回暖源于开发商的以价换量和政策面的微调，多数热销楼盘都属于刚需盘，长期是否回暖还有待观察。

For the housing market recovery situation，China real estate society vice-chairman Chen guoqiang think，Data does illustrate property market warmed，But judge market warms up need many conditions，Include investment in real estate development index and the number of performance。Nearly two months of buoyancy comes from the developers to price and quantity of the change of the policy fine-tuning，Most building dish to sell like hot cakes are belong to just dish，If long-term warmed remains to be seen。

　　多位业内人士分析，在房地产调控不动摇的基调下，3、4季度的房价整体趋势依然是平稳。

Many insiders，In real estate regulation not be moved under the fundamental key，3、The fourth quarter is still a whole trend of house prices stable。

　　中国房地产研究会副会长顾云昌认为，机构的统计数据没有出乎意料之外，百城房价环比虽然上涨，但接近持平，而且同比还是下降。在房地产调控不动摇的基调下，预计后两个季度房价还会呈环比持平状态。

China real estate research board vice-chairman GuYunChang think，Agency statistics not surprising，Stores in November although house prices rise，But as close to，And up or down。In real estate regulation not be moved under the fundamental key，After a quarter is expected to two prices could is flat month-on-month state。

　　“从目前住建部释放出的消息也可看到，量升价稳是决策层愿意看到的结果。有消息显示，住建部已经开始着手汇总分析北上广深等地的楼市成交数据，对下一阶段房价的走势进行初步评估。如果房价保持稳定，不会继续出台针对性的调控措施。”

“Live from JianBu release news also can see，Quantity price rise on the results of the decision-making is willing to see。There is the news shows，Live JianBu had already begun summary analysis of north is expected to clinch a deal data property market，For the next stage of the price of the house for preliminary assessment trend。If house prices remain stable，Will not continue to come on stage the specific measures。”

　　“房地产调控执行现有政策，短期内不会放松。”住建部政策研究中心主任秦虹表示，因为民间投资渠道依然有限，土地价格仍然高企，支持房价上涨的外部条件没有改变，调控不能放松。

“Real estate control implementation of existing policy，The short term won't relax。”Live JianBu, director of the center for policy research QinHong said，For private investment in the channel is still limited，Land prices are still high，Support the external condition of the rising housing prices has not changed，Regulation can't relax。

　　（记者 兰亚红 魏洪磊）

（Reporter LanYaGong WeiHongLei）