国家统计局近日发布的房地产业“半年报”让人喜忧参半：喜的是上半年房价同比增长5.3%，基本抑制住其过快增长的步伐；忧的是投资增速回落，“拖累”了GDP。专家认为，房地产调控效果明显，对经济的影响也在意料之中，切莫过分看重经济增长数字而淡忘了调控政策的初衷。

The national bureau of statistics) recently released the real estate industry“Half annals”Let people have been mixed：Happy is house prices in the first half year-on-year growth of 5.3%，Basic restrain its rapid growth pace；Of care is investment growth fell back，“drag”The GDP。Experts say，Real estate control effect is obvious，The impact on the economy of also in surprise，Never disdainful of economic growth figures and forget the original intention of adjustment and control policies。

　　房地产对经济拉动力减弱

Real estate on the economy weakened pulling power

　　“以房地产拖累经济为由要求放松调控政策，正是我们所担心的。”中国房地产研究会副会长顾云昌告诉记者，现在房地产“调控的压力来自于人们将楼市与GDP捆绑的思维，忽视了调控对抑制房价过快上涨所取得的成效。”

“With real estate drag on the economy requirements relax regulation policies，What we have to worry about。”China real estate research board vice-chairman GuYunChang told reporters，Now the real estate“Control stress from in people with GDP of the property market will be bound thinking，Ignore the regulation to control the house price rising rapidly the effect。”

　　国家统计局13日发布的经济数据显示，我国上半年GDP同比增长7.8%。其中，二季度增长7.6%，三年来首度“破八”。国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长盛来运坦言，房地产的主动调控确实是今年经济增长速度下滑的一个重要原因。“从房地产投资增速回落的幅度以及与房地产销售有关的家具和家电销售情况来看，增速都回落得比较明显，这不可避免地在一定程度上影响短期经济增长。”

Promulgated by the national bureau of statistics and the economic data shows，In the first half year-on-year growth of 7.8% in GDP。Among them，Growth of 7.6% in the second quarter，The first three years“Break eight”。The national bureau of statistics spokesman、The national economy of comprehensive statistics of priests and to transport said，The active control is really real estate economic growth rate of decline this year one important reason。“The real estate investment growth dropped from the amplitude and real estate sales and the furniture and electrical appliances sale situation，Growth fell back all have more apparent，This inevitably in the impact on the short-term economic growth。”

　　交通银行(601328,股吧)金融研究中心的报告显示，我国经济中房地产行业对GDP的贡献仍较高，近十年房地产投资占GDP的比重保持在5.5%左右，且产业关联较高。

Traffic bank(601328,Shares it)Financial research center report，In the our country economy of real estate industry to GDP of the higher still，Nearly 10 years real estate investment in GDP keep at about 5.5%，And the industry association is higher。

　　自2010年1月份至今年4月，房地产开发投资增速始终保持高于全国固定资产投资增速，但二季度房地产对于国民经济的拉动作用明显减弱，其中6月落后全国固定资产投资增速3.8个百分点，比上月扩大2.2个百分点。业内预计年内房地产投资增速相比去年将有较大幅度的回落，全年增速将从去年的27.8%回落至15%左右。

Since January 2010, the year to April，Investment in real estate development growth always stay above the national fixed asset investment growth，But in the second quarter of the real estate on the national economy pull function significantly weakened，Six months behind the fixed asset investment growth of 3.8%，Expanded by 2.2% than last month。The real estate investment growth is expected to years in the last year there will be a large fall back，Annual growth will fall from 27.8% last year to 15%。

　　“挤泡沫”有利于楼市健康

“Squeeze bubble”Health for property market

　　盛来运表示，调控房地产虽然说短期对经济增长产生影响，但是更有利于国民经济更持续健康地发展，特别是对防止房地产泡沫化对经济的长期发展的冲击很有好处。所以要进一步完善房地产调控的政策，进一步巩固房地产调控的成果。

Filled to transport said，Although short-term in regulating the real estate on the economic growth have an impact，But more conducive to the national economy more sustainable development，Especially to prevent real estate to the long-term development of the economic turning into a bubble-and the impact of the good。So, we will further improve the policy of real estate regulation，To further consolidate the results of real estate regulation。

　　在经济增长压力加大、地方土地财政收入减少的背景下，一些地方政府“潜伏”着放松楼市调控的冲动。从去年下半年开始，多个地方接连“微调”政策，变相“松绑”楼市调控。业内人士认为，目前全国房屋新开工量已出现负增长，对于上下游行业的利空影响趋于显著。在抑房价和稳增长之间，客观上需要房地产调控“走钢丝”。

In economic growth increased pressure、Local land under the background of financial income decrease，Some local governments“latent”Up market regulation impulse。From the second half of last year began，More places for“fine-tuning”policy，In disguised form“easing”Property market regulation。The personage inside course of study thinks，Now the country's new KaiGongLiang nationwitha shrinking house has，The bad influence for upstream and downstream industry tends to be significant。House prices and steady growth in or between，Requires real estate regulation“tightrope”。

　　顾云昌认为，2012年房地产调控的重点仍然是构建合理价格体系，继续执行限购限贷政策抑制投资投机性需求，增加保障房和普通住房供应，满足中低收入人群的住房需求，支持刚性和改善型住房需求。特别是对于改善型住房需求，也应当在信贷政策上予以差别对待，降低首付成数和给予优惠利率。

GuYunChang think，2012 years of real estate control the focus is still on constructing the rational price system，Continue 限购 limit credit policy inhibit investment the speculative demand，Increased security room and common housing supply，Meet the housing needs of low-income people，Support the rigid and improve type housing needs。Especially for improving type housing needs，Also in the credit policy should be different treatments，Lower down and give preferential interest rates down。

　　申银万国分析报告指出，考虑到当前经济低迷，稳投资成为各地共识，因此既要控制投机性需求，又要稳定投资，增加未来供给，可行的方式就是继续此前的限购限贷，打击投机性购房，同时放宽房地产开发商的融资限制，保证正常供给。

Shenyin &wanguo analysis report said，Considering the current economic downturn，Steady investment become consensus around，So not only to control the speculative demand，And stable investment，Increase the future supply，Feasible way is to continue the previous 限购 limit lend，Against speculative the house，At the same time relaxing real estate developers financing restrictions，Guarantee the normal supply。

　　调控呼唤长效机制

Call control mechanism

　　6月份，多数一二线城市新建商品住宅成交量创近17个月新高。而进入7月份，部分城市环比成交数据继续增长。伴随着成交量的上涨，房价也开始逐渐回升。业界担心，楼市的“价格底”和调控的“政策底”已经双双出现，在买涨不买跌的心理影响下，市场预期的改变会令房价出现趋势性反转的风险进一步加大。

June，Most a second city new volume and the commodity residential house in 17 months high。In July and into the，Parts of the city annulus comparing clinch a deal data continued to grow。Along with the rise in volume，House prices have started to pick up gradually。Industry worry，The property market“Price bottom”And regulation of“Policy bottom”Has been emerging，Buy or not to buy up in fall under the influence of psychology，The market is expected to change will make house prices appear the reversal of the result of the further increase the risk。

　　顾云昌认为，这一轮成交量的反弹与开发商前期的“以价换量”有关，更重要的是货币政策的宽松带来的预期改变，使得自住性需求认为购房窗口已经打开，积极入市。房价上涨有两种情况，一种是实涨，即随着收入水平的提高而上涨，另一种是虚涨，往往是投资需求炒起来的价格。但在目前形势下，房价过快反弹和暴涨的可能性不大，最多只会是温和上涨。

GuYunChang think，This round of volume with the developers of the rebound“To change the price of”relevant，More important is the loose monetary policy to bring expected change，Make self living sexual needs think purchase window has been open，Positive entry。Rising house prices have two kinds of cases，A rose is real，That with the improvement of income level and rise，The other is virtual rise，Often is the price of Fried up investment demand。But in the current situation，House prices too fast rebound and inflation is unlikely，Most will only rise is mild。

　　“一些人认为房价合理回归就是要降房价，其实还有一种路径是增加居民收入，使得房价收入比趋于合理。”顾云昌称。

“Some people think that house prices reasonable return is to drop prices，There are actually a path is increasing household income，Make the housing price to income than more reasonable。”GuYunChang says。

　　房地产研究机构易居中国的报告显示，中国房价收入比曾在2009年达到8.1的峰值，去年降至7.4，随着调控的持续以及居民可持续收入的增长，预计今年大中城市的房价收入比有望回落至6至7的合理区间。但在一线城市中，这一比值仍较高：上海为12.4，北京为11.6，深圳更是高达15.6。

Real estate research institutions in China to the report，China than the housing price to income in 2009 was 8.1 peak，Last year fell to 7.4，Along with the continuous control and sustainable income growth residents，This year is expected to large and medium cities of the housing price to income than is expected to fall to 6 to 7 reasonable interval。But in a line in the city，This ratio is higher：Shanghai is 12.4，Beijing is 11.6，Shenzhen is as high as 15.6。

　　专家建议，从国际经验看，保持房地产市场健康持续发展，除增加居民收入外，还应建立以合理税负为主导的房地产调控长效机制。据新华社

Experts suggest，Look from the international experience，The real estate market to keep sustainable development，In addition to increasing the income outside，Also shall establish with reasonable as the leading real estate tax burden control mechanism。According to xinhua news agency