自6月8日和7月6日两次降息后，楼市购房热情受到明显提振。这种热情甚至传递到了土地市场，开发商买地密度和溢价率自6月开始逐步上升。多地市场人士称，如果没有新的调控政策出台，预计未来三个月各地楼市将维持回暖态势，三季度楼市传统淡季或将呈现旺销景象。 Since June 8, on July 6, and after two cuts，Housing purchase by obvious passion to lift。The enthusiasm and even transfer to land market，Developers to buy land and density and premium rate since June began to rise gradually。Many market participants say，If no new regulation policies，The expected future three months will maintain thaw situation all over property market，Three quarters of traditional slack property market will present the flourishing sells or sight。

　　⊙记者 于兵兵

⊙ reporter in bing bing

　　○编辑 孙放

○ editor SunFang

购房热情与降息关系重大 Purchase passion and significant to cut interest rates

　　自6月以来，各地楼市成交持续回暖态势，购房热情高涨与降息关系重大。中原地产分析师瞿安新表示，由于信贷放松，各地楼市成交量持续回升，部分需求开始恐慌性入市。6月份北京、上海、广州、深圳、天津、成都等6个城市的二手住宅成交面积合计约474万平方米，环比增长18.1%。其中成都环比增幅高达四成。

Since June，Property clinch a deal around sustained progress trend，Purchase enthusiasm and are vital to cut interest rates。By AnXin centaline property analysts said，Because of the credit to relax，All property market turnover continue to rise，Part of the demand began to panic market。Beijing in June、Shanghai、guangzhou、shenzhen、tianjin、Chengdu and so on six city residential area of total secondhand clinch a deal about 4.74 million square meters，Annulus comparing growth of 18.1%。In chengdu annulus comparing growth of forty percent。

　　“如果以100万贷款，20年付清为例，两次降息后月还贷成本减少近300元。这确实是我们考虑买房的动力之一。”深圳一位筹备买婚房的时小姐告诉记者。

“If the 1 million loans，20 year to pay off for example，Two cuts on loan after costs by nearly 300 yuan。This is really our consider one of the power to buy a house。”Shenzhen a preparation for the marriage room buy when young lady told reporters。

　　除了月还贷成本的变化外，降息更主要的是对楼市走向的预期产生了重大影响。“房地产市场确实是个政策市，降息信号传导的宏观政策信号十分明确，很多投资客认为楼市调控已经触底，房价将因此回升，而这才是他们入市购房的最主要原因。近期楼市已经出现投资客回潮的现象，甚至连限购都不能抵挡成交回升的趋势。”中原地产某区域公司负责人告诉记者。

In addition to the cost of the loan payments on change，More important is to cut interest rates to the property market is expected to have the significant influence。“The real estate market is really a policy city，Cut the signal transmission macro policy signals very clear，Many investment guest think property market regulation have hit bottom，House prices will therefore to bounce back，And this is their entry is the main reason that buy a house。There have been recent housing investment guest resurgence phenomenon，Even 限购 cannot resist clinch a deal the trend of rise。”One area of centaline property company told reporters。

　　厦门某房地产代理机构负责人告诉记者，自6月以来，厦门商品房成交量大幅攀升，使原本打算在7月1日起实施宽松限购政策的地方政府打消了念头。

A real estate agency xiamen manager told reporters，Since June，Xiamen commodity house turnover has risen sharply，That was going to in the July 1 st, 限购 loose policy of local government removed the idea。

　　成都方面，世联地产(002285,股吧)某研究员也告诉记者，成都自5月以来成交逐步回暖，到7月一直延续回暖态势。如果不出新的政策，估计未来三个月都会持续这种态势。

Chengdu aspects，The league real estate(002285,Shares it)Some researchers also told reporters，The chengdu since may gradually reverting to clinch a deal，Until July has been extended thaw situation。If not a new policy，Estimate that over the next three months will continue this trend。

　　上海易居中国分析师薛建雄则表示，上海上周商品房成交量估计与7月首周相当，大约在20万平方米左右。“这个周成交量大幅低于6月的情况，主要是上海在6月底收紧限购令的影响。因为从6月情况看，上海成交量已经严重过热。”据专家介绍，上海正常的商品房月成交量在60万至80万平方米之间，如果低于60万平方米，开发商就有折扣动力，高于80万平方米，就有加价可能。而6月上海商品房成交面积超过100万平方米，导致部分开发商小幅提价10%左右。“如果不及时出台政策抑制成交，涨价就不是10%的问题了。”薛建雄称。

Shanghai easy in China XueJianXiong analysts, said，In Shanghai last week, the volume of commodity house estimate and July first week quite，About 200000 square metre。“This week a volume of less than 6 months，Main is in Shanghai at the end of June 限购 tightening to influence。Because from June at，Shanghai volume has serious overheating。”According to expert introduction，Shanghai normal on the commodity house of volume in 600000 to 800000 square meters between，If less than 600000 square meters，Developers have discount power，More than 800000 square meters，There may increase。And June Shanghai commodity house clinch a deal the area of over 1 million square meters，Lead to some developers to a modest raised prices 10% or so。“If not timely policy inhibit clinch a deal，Price is not 10% of the problem。”XueJianXiong says。

开发商对完成业绩信心满满 Developers to complete performance with confidence

　　除降息外，楼市回暖也是多种因素共同作用的结果。自央行宣布，金融机构贷款利率浮动区间的下限调整为基准利率的0.7倍后，各地银行对首套房利率折扣幅度也有所松动。目前上海、深圳等地普遍利率折扣幅度在8折、8.5折和9折之间。其中中小银行折扣幅度较大。对于此前动辄采取基准利率的房贷市场，购房人明显尝到了优惠的甜头。

In addition to the rate cut，Property market warms up also is many factors that work together。Since the central bank announced，Financial institutions loan interest rate adjusted for the lower limit of the range of floating benchmark interest rate of 0.7 times，Banks around the first suite to discount interest rate eased range。At present Shanghai、Shenzhen common interest rate increase in 8 fold the discount、8.5 fold and between 9 discount。One small and medium-sized Banks discount to a larger extent。After the benchmark interest rate for easily take the housing market，The person that buy a house obvious taste the favorable rewards。

　　随着成交回暖，很多开发商开始对完成全年业绩信心满满。以恒大为例，其二季度销售267.7亿元，占全年任务近三分之一。7月初，恒大位于启东的海上威尼斯项目开盘，销售超过2500套，回款超过20亿元。在此趋势下，业内预测恒大等多个开发商在未来几个月可能上调全年销售目标。

Clinch a deal with warmed，Many developers start to achieve full year results with confidence。With constant was an example，The second quarter sales of 26.77 billion yuan，Nearly a third of annual task。In early July，Evergrande in qidong sea Venice project open quotation，Sales more than 2500 sets，Debt collection of more than 2 billion yuan。The trend in the，The forecast evergrande, and other developers in the next few months may raise annual sales target。

　　楼市成交回暖也反过来刺激了土地市场。财政部最新数据表明，上半年全国土地出让收益锐减，但刚过去的6月份单月数据却开始呈现回暖迹象。北京、上海、厦门、杭州等地土地交易再现活跃，开发商拿地溢价率不断创出新高。“开发商此前不拿地，一是资金紧张，二是看不清后市。随着成交回暖和宏观政策的明朗，越来越多开发商开始看好后市，不过，这种土地市场的回暖相比商品房销售市场来说，还不十分普遍。”一位房地产企业负责人告诉记者。

Property market clinch a deal, in turn, stimulate the warmed also land market。The latest data show that the Treasury，The national land transfer income declined in the first half，But just the past month of data in June but has warmed signs。Beijing、Shanghai、xiamen、And hangzhou land deal represent active，Developers to get premium rate attaining record highs。“Developers after don't get，One is the funds，Two is to can't see market outlook。Clinch a deal with warmed and macro policy is clear，More and more developers start is valued hind，but，This kind of land market of buoyancy market for home sales compared，Still not very common。”A real estate enterprise manager told reporters。

　　对于这种一路看涨的投资热情，业内称唯一可能改变预期的是紧缩性政策的再度出台。7月7日，温家宝总理在江苏常州调研时强调，要防止变相放松购房政策，毫不动摇地继续推进房地产市场各项调控工作，促进房价合理回归，决不能让房价反弹。而据记者了解，国务院正组织多路调研机构研究楼市现状，希望搞清楚两大问题：一是如此严格的限购政策下，房价为何还会回升？二是如果房价继续上涨，政策将怎样应对。有业内解读称，以房价走势为参照，一旦价格上涨明显，新的紧缩性政策出台的可能性仍然存在。

This all the way to the investment call enthusiasm，The industry says the only may change is expected to tighten policy on again。July 7，Prime minister wen jiabao stressed in jiangsu changzhou investigation，To prevent in disguised form relax purchase policies，Unswervingly to continue to push forward the real estate market various control work，Promote the rational regression house prices，Never let the house prices rebound。And according to reporter understanding，The state council is way more research institutions in research organization property market situation，Hope to make clear two big problems：One is so strict 限购 under the policy，Why would pick up house prices？2 it is if house prices continue to rise，How will the policy to deal with。Have the reading says，With house prices to trend，As soon as the price rise significantly，New tighten policy on the introduction of the possibility still exists。