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　　本报北京讯（记者吕红星）当前房地产市场正处于一个关键时期，国家统计局18日最新数据显示，6月份我国70个大中城市中，新建商品住宅环比价格上涨的城市达到了25个，比上月增加了19个。纵观世界各国的房地产市场，不难看出房地产业在各国经济中均具有重要地位，房地产市场的波动通常会对宏观经济运行带来较大影响。本报今日刊发国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所副所长邓郁松的文章《如何认识房地产市场的波动》。

Our newspaper Beijing（Reporter LvGongXing）The current real estate market is in a crucial period，The national bureau of statistics 18 new data showed，June 70 major cities in China，New commodity residential house prices in the city to November 25，Last month the increase than 19。Throughout the countries all over the world's real estate market，It is not difficult to see the real estate industry in the economies of the countries are in has the important position，The real estate market volatility will usually macroeconomic operation to bring greater influence。This newspaper published today the state council development research center of the market economy, deputy director of institute DengYuSong article《How to understand the real estate market fluctuation》。

　　文章认为，从美国和日本的经验来看，人口总量和结构的重大变化无一例外带来房地产市场需求的重大变化，而我国当前同样处于这样一个时期。

The paper argues that the，From the United States and Japan's experience，The total population and structure of the major change without exception, the real estate market demand brought the important changes，And in our country at present the same in such a time。

　　文章还认为，除人口总量和结构的重大变化外，金融政策特别是利率政策变化、经济的周期变化以及供给变化都会对房地产市场产生影响。其中，经济周期变化对房地产市场中期波动影响更为显著，利率等金融政策的变化则是房地产市场需求短期内出现大幅波动的首要原因，而供求的非同步性会加剧房地产市场的短期市场波动。

The article also think，In addition to the total population and structure of the major changes，Financial policy interest rate policy change especially、The cycle of economic change, and change can be supply on the real estate market effect。Among them，Economic cycle changes on the real estate market fluctuations middle is more marked，Interest rates, and other financial policy change is the real estate market demand in the short term the leading cause of substantialvolatility，And supply and demand not synchronized will aggravate the real estate market in the short-term market fluctuations。

　　文章强调，调控政策要取得预期效果，关键在于准确把握房地产市场出现异常波动的原因，认清市场波动的原因是在供给方面还是在需求方面，是什么因素造成供给或需求的非正常波动。只有在此基础上对症下药，才可能真正实现房地产市场的持续稳定运行。

The article emphasizes，Control policy to get the expected effect，The key is to grasp the real estate market appears abnormal fluctuations reasons，Understand the cause of market volatility in supply or in demand，What are the factors cause abnormal fluctuations of supply or demand。Only based on this suit the remedy to the case，To be really realize the real estate market continues to stable operation。

　　（详见5版）

（See 5 edition）