最近，房地产市场出现的一些现象表明市场开始触底反弹。国家统计局7月18日公布的房价数据显示，6月份全国70个大中城市里，新建商品住宅价格环比下降的城市有21个，环比上涨的城市则有25个，环比上涨的城市数量首次超过了环比下降的城市数量。同时，6月全国70个大中城市新建商品住宅价格按月上升0.02%，结束楼价连续8个月下跌。

recent，The real estate market appears some phenomena that market started to rebound hit bottom。The national bureau of statistics released on July 18, the house price data shows，June 70 major cities across the country，New commodity residential house prices of the decline of the annulus comparing 21 cities，Annulus comparing to the rise of the cities were there 25，The rise of the annulus comparing the number of cities more than the first time of the decline of the annulus comparing the number of cities。At the same time，June 70 major cities across the country for new commodity residential house prices rose 0.02% by the month，Property prices over eight months fell。

　　这个信号表明近期的楼市已经开始回暖。而究竟我们的房地产调控应该朝着一个什么样的方向继续下去呢?针对市场的质疑，19日晚上，国土资源部和住建部联合下发《关于进一步严格房地产用地管理巩固房地产市场调控成果的紧急通知》（以下简称《通知》），要求坚持房地产市场调控不放松，密切配合做好各项工作，不断巩固调控成果，坚决防止房价反弹。

This signal that the recent market has started to thaw。And after all our real estate should be in control of what kind of direction to continue?The question of the market，19 night，The ministry of land and resources and live JianBu jointly issued《On further strictly real estate management real estate market regulation of land consolidation of emergency notice results》（Hereinafter referred to as《notice》），Demands to the real estate market regulation not to relax，Close cooperation to complete each work，And consolidating control results，Determined to prevent prices rebound。

　　这是在短短两个月时间内，国家相关部委进行的第九次坚决不放松房地产调控的表态。事实上，国务院总理温家宝在江苏省常州市调研时也强调，目前房地产市场调控仍然处在关键时期，调控任务还很艰巨。必须坚定不移做好调控工作，把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策。同时，继续严格实施差别化住房信贷、税收政策和住房限购措施，促进房价合理回归，绝不能让房价反弹，造成功亏一篑的局面。

This is in just two months time，National related ministries of the ninth resolute don't relax regulation of the real estate comment。In fact，The state council premier wen jiabao in changzhou, jiangsu province when research also emphasized，Real estate market regulation is still in critical period，Regulation is very arduous task。Must unswervingly well control work，The inhibition of the investment real estate speculation needs as a long-term policy。At the same time，Continue to strictly implement differentiation housing credit、Tax policy and housing 限购 measures，Promote the rational regression house prices，Never let a house prices rebound，Cause the lip situation。

　　从这些信息可以看到，中央坚定调控信心、完善调控方式的指向非常明显。可是现在的问题是，目前在房地产调控从严的背景下，6月房价为何会出现大幅反弹？原因不外乎以下几个：

From this information can see，The central firm control confidence、The perfect way to control is very apparent。But the question now is，At present in the real estate regulation strictly background，June house prices why will the rebound sharply？Cause nothing more than the following：

　　首先，经过持续的稳健货币政策调控以及受国际经济复苏迟缓的影响，今年以来，经济一直在下行通道中，尤其是第二季度，GDP增速“破八”同比增长7.6%，一下子跌回了三年前。为了找出那支能够提振经济增长的强心针，国家上半年一直在不断动用货币工具进行调节。

first，After steady steady monetary policy and the international economic recovery sluggish influence，Since this year，The economy has been down in the channel，Especially in the second quarter，GDP growth“Break eight”Year-on-year growth of 7.6%，Suddenly fell back to the three years ago。In order to find out that one can to boost economic growth booster，In the first half of countries has been constantly use monetary tools for regulation。

　　其次，对于地方政府而言，房地产调控的局势带来的是地方财政收入锐减，给地方基础建设带来巨大压力。最典型的是杭州有可能成为今年首个无法完成财政预算的省会城市。数据显示，2009年杭州土地出让金达1200亿元，而其地方公共财政收入仅500多亿元。

second，As for the local government，The situation of the real estate regulation bring is local fiscal revenue down sharply，To the local infrastructure huge pressure。The most typical is the hangzhou become likely this year first can not complete the budget's capital city。Data shows，In 2009 the land grant fee of 120 billion yuan in hangzhou，And the local public finance income only more than 500 yuan。

　　再次，房地产此前的过度借贷带来了新的风险，在各方仍在为房地产调控应否松绑争执不休时，浙江省传来的消息显示，房地产业已开始把银行拖下水，而且是国有银行！据报道，浙江民企中江集团因投资地产、酒店失利，资金链断裂，目前正进行破产重组。经初步统计，中江债务规模80亿元，其中建行一家就占了30亿元，中行和工行亦分别占10亿及1.5亿元。对此，国务院副总理王岐山7月20日指出，要加快转变金融发展方式，推进体制机制改革和组织制度创新，加强金融监管，坚决守住不发生系统性、区域性金融风险的底线。

again，Real estate had excessive lending brought new risks，The parties are still in real estate in for fighting over the REINS should control，The news from the display of zhejiang province，Real estate has started to take the bank over your head，And it is state-owned Banks！According to the report，Zhejiang corporation ZhongJiang group for investment real estate、The hotel defeat，Capital chain rupture，Are the bankruptcy reorganization。After the preliminary statistics，ZhongJiang debt scale 8 billion yuan，Among them the construction bank a accounted for 3 billion yuan，Bank of China and icbc also accounted for 1 billion and 150 million yuan。this，Vice premier wang qishan July 20 points out，To speed up the financial development mode change，Promote reform of mechanism of system and organizational system innovation，Strengthen financial supervision，Firmly keep not occur systematic、Regional financial risk bottom line。

　　最后，在楼市调控之下，上市房企利润不佳是理所当然的。据了解，截至目前，已经有49家沪深上市房企以快报和预告等形式发布了上半年利润情况。链家地产市场研究部统计，在这49家上市房企中，28家房企出现亏损或利润下滑，接近已披露房企半年报总数六成，其中亏损房企13家。令人玩味的是，在当下的环境中，有些房企何以“逆天”拿地，冰冻了几乎大半年的土地市场又展现出回暖迹象。正是这些信息误导了消费预期，从而推高房地产价格。

finally，In the property market under control，Listed enterprises poor profit room is taken for granted。According to understand，So far，Have 49 listed in shenzhen house room enterprises express and forecast the form such as released first-half profit。Chain's real estate market research statistics，In the 49 listed room in enterprises，28 companies room to losses in enterprises or falling profits，Close to already disclosed room enterprises half annals sixty percent，Which room 13 home losses enterprises。It was entertaining is，In the current environment，Some room why enterprises“Playing god”Give land，The frozen land market and the redeemed almost show a thaw signs。It is these misleading information consumer expectations，To push the high real estate prices。

　　可以看到，在房地产调控的争议中，地方与中央之间的政策博弈还将持续，而且还会有地方继续游离于政策边缘打擦边球，而在经济稳增长的背景下，房地产的稳定发展又会使得中央默认一些政策的松动，但是在目前经济整体结构性矛盾失衡的情况下，泡沫风险同样使得房地产不会再继续此前的发展。在笔者看来，只有厘清了推高房价上涨的原因，才能对症下药。

Can see，In real estate in the regulation of the dispute，Between the local and central policy game will continue，And there will be local continue to free in the policy edge play outside，In the economic growth and stability of the background，The stability of the real estate development and makes the central default some policy loose，But in the current economic integral structural contradiction under the condition of the imbalance，Bubble is also a risk that real estate won't continue to previous development。In the author looks，Only to clarify the push for much of the high prices，To suit the remedy to the case。