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房地产调控需要历史担当(国金时评)--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-07-25
国务院总理温家宝7月7日在常州调研时强调,目前房地产市场调控仍然处在关键时期,调控任务还很艰巨。必须坚定不移做好调控工作,把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策。他特别强调要毫不动摇地继续推进房地产市场各项调控工作,促进房价合理回归,决不能让房价反弹,造成功亏一篑。这些掷地有声的谈话对厘清当前房地产形势,扭转市场的混沌局面意义深远。
The state council premier wen jiabao July 7 in changzhou research said,Real estate market regulation is still in critical period,Regulation is very arduous task。Must unswervingly well control work,The inhibition of the investment real estate speculation needs as a long-term policy。He especially stressed the need to unswervingly to continue to push forward the real estate market various control work,Promote the rational regression house prices,Never let the house prices rebound,Cause failed。These ZhiDeYouSheng conversation to clarify the current real estate situation,Turn the chaotic market situation of meaning。
近一段时间以来,房地产市场释放出的信号空前杂乱,一些地方通过“放气球”式的再调整,探测“稳增长”基调下,地方“微调”和“再调控”的空间,试探中央的决心和底线。其实,每一轮调控中,各地都会出现些“小动作”,而今年以来,随着土地财政“路径依赖”局面的打破、“做梦都渴望调控转向”的地方政府成了“救市”的急先锋,他们“忽明忽暗”地“变相松绑”楼市限购政策的同时,还不断邀约一些专家学者,利用其话语体系,抛出一些没完没了的造梦师般的政策误读。
Close for a long time now,The real estate market release signal unprecedented mixed and disorderly,Some places through“Put the balloon”Type to adjust the,detection“Steady growth”Under the fundamental key,place“fine-tuning”and“To control”space,Test the determination and the Central Line。In fact,Each round of regulation,Some will appear all over“incidents”,And since this year,As the financial“Path dependence”Situation of break、“Dreams are eager to control to”The local government became“Help city”The pioneer,they“Blinks on”to“Easing in disguised form”Market 限购 policy at the same time,Some experts and scholars constantly invitation,Use the words system,Throw some endless dream maker division of policy misread。
这些无厘头的“误读”混淆公众视听,扰乱市场预期,使人无所适从。而一些地方蠢蠢欲动地“放气球”得到了左邻右舍的默契配合,一粒小火星很容易形成燎原之势,如果不能果断遏制,极易汇聚成一股反调控的逆流,让来之不易的调控成果前功尽弃。所以,这次总理明确提出,对有些地方出台或变相放松房地产市场调控政策的,要有针对性地及时制止纠正。
The dodgers“misreading”Confusing the public and,Disrupt the market expectations,Make us bewilder。And some place to move“Put the balloon”Get in the neighborhood tacit cooperation,A grain of small Mars very easy to form a potential,If not decisive curbed,Extremely easy gathered to a shares the regulation reflux,Let the hard-won erase any control results。so,The prime minister put forward,Some place to come on stage or in disguised form relax the real estate market adjustment and control policies,To have targeted and timely stop correct。
房地产市场信息吊诡而混沌,不实信息频频炒作误导市场,有着深层次的利益因素。有报告称,中国房地产市场接近90%的住房自有率,中国城市居民的住房资产市值已突破100万亿元,这一数字已经与中国银行(601988,股吧)业的总资产基本对应。房地产的过度泡沫化,威胁着一国的经济和金融安全。如果因为耐不住调控和转型的阵痛,政策暧昧摇摆,任由地产泡沫再度发酵,无限膨胀的地产泡沫必然走向破灭和崩溃。现在,无论是地方政府、银行还是绝大多数的住房持有人,利益都卷入其中,都希望房价“永远上涨”。
The real estate market information paradoxical and chaos,False information frequently hype misleading market,There are deep interest factor。There were reports that,China's real estate market to 90% of the housing ZiYouLv,China's urban residents of the housing market value assets has over 100 trillion yuan,The Numbers have been with the bank of China(601988,Shares it)Industry, the total assets basic corresponding。The excessive turning into a bubble-and the real estate,Threatening a country's economic and financial security。If because can not bear regulation and transformation of the pain,Policy ambiguous swing,At the mercy of the real estate bubble ferment again,Infinite expansion of real estate bubble will burst and to collapse。now,Both local government、A bank or most of the housing holder,Interests are involved,All hope that house prices“Forever rising”。
近年持有房产的人坐享了升值的红利,当然希望房地产市场永远“繁荣”。官员、学者和媒体整天唱高房价,说“房地产价值就是国家财富”,这说明房地产对中国经济和民众利益的挟裹已经到了无以复加的程度,大家都侥幸这个市场不会下跌,如此这般,这个市场越来越成为一个只有侥幸而没有理性、只有贪婪而不知恐惧的“黑箱市场”。
In recent years, hold a home sitting on the appreciation of the bonus,Of course the real estate market to forever“prosperity”。officials、Scholars and media sing all day high prices,said“Real estate value is the national wealth”,This shows that China's economy and real estate on the interests of the people XieGuo has been hard to level,Everybody lucky the market will not fall,Like this,The market has become more and more a only lucky and no reason、Only the greed and doesn't know the fear“Black box market”。
一位作家说过,深刻影响现实的,是离现实最近的历史。发达经济体房地产泡沫破灭是一面镜子,美国次贷危机和欧债危机对中国的镜鉴意义在于,“天下没有不散的宴席”,十年涨了十倍的中国的房地产,不是没有泡沫,而是正处于一场超级泡沫的前夜,系统性风险日益深化。这时如果政策暧昧,放纵并任由泡沫膨化,市场各派因利益见风使舵,相互拉锯,必将加大非理性亢奋和波动,不断延缓拉长调整的时间,使得市场健康的因素日益式微,这从根本上难以阻止泡沫最终破灭的宿命,所以总理再次提出要继续坚决抑制投机投资性需求,防止变相放松购房政策,要把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策。决策者是清醒的,政策如果因自身利益而投鼠忌器,首鼠两端,持续摇摆,市场反复,其结局将十分可怕,就像一架出故障的飞机滑出跑道、加速、拉升、向下俯冲、再拉升、跃上同温层,最后坠落。历经艰难调控和复杂博弈后的房地产市场,如果走向这样一条宿命的不归路,那必将重创中国经济。
A writer said,Deep impact of reality,Is the history of the recent from reality。The developed economies estate bubble is a mirror,The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis of the JingJian significance lies in China,“The world has not the end”,Ten years up ten times the Chinese real estate,Not no foam,But is in a super on the eve of the bubble,Deepens the systemic risk。Then if policy ambiguous,Indulgence and let bubble expanded,The market for JianFengShiDuo factions of interests,Mutual see-saw,Will increase the irrational stimulated and volatility,Constantly delay the time length adjustment,That makes the market elements of health has been eroded,It fundamentally harder to stop bubble ultimately burst fate,So the prime minister put forward again to continue firmly suppress speculative investment demand,Prevent in disguised form relax purchase policies,The inhibition of the investment real estate speculation needs as a long-term policy。Decision makers is clear,Due to its own interests and policy if glass house should not throw stones,First rat ends,Continued sway,Market repeated,The end result is very terrible,Like a plane out of the fault plane off a runway、accelerate、Pull litre、dive、Again pull up、Stratosphere leap,Last fall。After tough regulation and complex game after the real estate market,If such a fate to struggle,That will hit China economy。
房地产深度地绑架并附着于中国的经济体系,成为主动脉血管上的胶质瘤和血管内壁厚厚的脂肪层,使得整个经济体日益臃肿而病态,如何安全地排除瘤,防止恶变,对脂肪层进行去脂化处理,需要大智慧(601519,股吧)和超乎寻常的技巧,更需要坚定的决心和历史的担当。总理的最新讲话说明保持房地产调控仍然要坚持正确的方向不动摇,必须对地方以各种理由推出的不识时务的反调控“新政”进行果断干预,严格责任追究制度,露头就打,同时要利用有利时机,在土地、财税政策、信贷等方面加强制度建设,制订标本兼治的房地产市场的长期治市之道,加快物业税扩大试点范畴,以健康的市场机制替代行政管制的限购之手,真正发挥市场机制的作用。
Real estate deeply attached to the kidnapping and of Chinese economy system,Become the aortic blood vessels and vascular wall thick fat a layer,Make the whole economy increasingly bloated and sick,How to safely excluded tumor,Prevent the progression,On fat layer of fat to deal with,Need wisdom(601519,Shares it)And the extraordinary skills,Need more resolution and history of the bear。The prime minister's latest speech that real estate regulation to keep still adhere to the correct orientation not be moved,Must place with all sorts of reason for the launch of the ignorance of the regulation“New Deal”For decisive intervention,Strict accountability system,Outcrop dozen,And at the same time use of favorable opportunity,In the land、Finance and tax policy、Strengthening the construction of credit system,Make specimen and the real estate market to the word of the city for a long time,To speed up the property tax, enlarged the category,With a healthy market mechanism replace the hand of 限购 administrative controls,Give full play to the function of market mechanism。
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