督查组先行调研

DuZhaZu first research

　　国务院急查楼市回暖防反弹

The state council housing market warms up the rebound in check

　　李乐

LiLe

　　7月18日，国家统计局发布70大中城市新建商品住宅价格统计显示，6月房地产价格呈现环比上涨城市达到25个。在这样背景下，国务院已经召集包括住房和城乡建设部（下称“住建部”）、国土资源部（下称“国土部”）等主管部门参加的会议，研究并讨论进一步落实房地产调控的相关政策。

July 18,，The national bureau of statistics released 70 large and medium-sized cities in new commodity residential house price statistics show，June real estate prices up to 25 November on a city。Under such background，The state council has called including housing and rural construction（Said the“Live JianBu”）、Land and resources（Said the“Homeland department”）Such competent department at the meeting，Study and discuss further implement the relevant policy regulation of the real estate。

　　作为这次会议的准备工作，住建部等主管部门已经对部分房地产市场热点城市和区域进行了调研工作。调研情况将向国务院总理、分管副总理进行汇报。除房地产市场成交回暖等情况外，6月以来土地市场成交情况的波动，亦在汇报内容之中。

As the meeting to prepare，Live JianBu such competent authorities to some of the real estate market has been hot city and regional research on the work。To the premier of the state council investigation、Deputy prime minister in charge to report。In addition to the real estate market to clinch a deal the circumstance such as thaw out，Since June of land market fluctuation of the deal，Also in the report of content。

　　在此之前，沪深股市房地产版块出现明显下跌。7月18日，金地集团(600383,股吧)以7%的跌幅领跑房地产版块。7月19日，国土资源部、住建部联合下发《关于进一步严格房地产用地管理巩固房地产市场调控成果的紧急通知》（下称“通知”）遏止已经出现的楼市反弹苗头。

Before this，Shenzhen stock market declines in real estate section。July 18,，Ltd.gemdale corporation(600383,Shares it)With a 7% fall leading real estate section。July 19,，Land and resources、Live JianBu jointly issued《On further strictly real estate management real estate market regulation of land consolidation of emergency notice results》（Said the“notice”）Rein has appeared in the housing market rally appearance。

　　急召会议 Urgent called the meeting

　　住建部政策研究中心人士向记者证实，此前他确实曾前往地方对房地产市场进行调研，但对于调研是否作为国务院召集会议的准备工作，他并未向记者做明确的表示。

Live JianBu policy research center to reporters who confirmed，Previously he really had to place on the real estate market research，But whether the state council called for research as the preparation work，He did not make clear to the reporter said。

　　“国务院已经召集国家发展改革委、住建部、国土资源部、国家统计局等部门开会，重点研究目前房地产市场的情况，并对下一阶段落实楼市调控政策的工作进行部署。”7月18日晚间，接近住建部的一位权威人士向《中国经营报(博客,微博)》记者表示。

“The state council has called the national development and reform commission、Live JianBu、Land and resources、The national bureau of statistics and other departments for the meeting，Focuses on the research of the real estate market at present，And for the next stage of the property market regulation policy implementation work deployment。”July 18, night，Living close to the JianBu an authority to《China runs a newspaper(blog,Micro bo)》reporters。

　　两位不愿具名的住建部内部人士均向记者证实了国务院召集会议的说法，不过，他们表示，会议最终形成政策的主要内容是针对土地方面的。

Two anonymous live JianBu insiders are confirmed to reporters that the state council called the meeting，but，They say，The final form of the main content is for policy of land。

　　7月10日，北京万柳地块以26.3亿元并配建16400平方米回购房的价格出让，被冠以“地王”头衔，并被市场普遍看作是土地和房地产市场回暖预期的标志。随后，国家统计局公布6月70大中城市新建商品住房统计情况，25城市新建商品住房价格出现环比上涨。

July 10,，Beijing wanliu plot with 2.63 billion yuan and 16400 square meters of PeiJian back to buy the price，Been dubbed the“royal”title，And by market, widely regarded as land and real estate market warms up the expected sign。then，National bureau of statistics released June 70 large and medium-sized city new commercial housing statistics，25 city commercial housing prices appear new projects to rise。

　　记者了解到，针对这一情况，住建部曾组织相关业务部门和政策研究机构，进行了专门调研。北京、上海、浙江、江苏、广州、深圳等地区和城市均在调研范围之内。对于调研中收集的所在地的房地产市场情况，将向国务院进行汇报。

The reporter understands，In view of this situation，Live JianBu had organization related business department and policy research organization，The special investigation。Beijing、Shanghai、zhejiang、jiangsu、guangzhou、Shenzhen and other regions and cities are in the research area。In the study, the seat of the collection for the real estate market conditions，Will report to the state council。

　　住建部政策研究中心人士向记者证实，此前他确实曾前往地方对房地产市场进行调研，但对于调研是否作为国务院召集会议的准备工作，他并未向记者做明确的表示，对于是否会出台进一步的调控政策，他表示，这项工作要由国务院统筹安排，目前不便表态。

Live JianBu policy research center to reporters who confirmed，Previously he really had to place on the real estate market research，But whether the state council called for research as the preparation work，He did not make clear to the reporter said，Whether for further regulation policy is expected，He said，The work by the state council to overall plan，At present inconvenience comment。

　　实际上，在万柳地块出让前后，其地块交易情况、交易条件、预估价格等情况，就已经在国土资源部备案。国务院办公厅在万柳地块成交之后，亦向北京市询问了关于万柳地块出让、成交的相关情况。在此之前，国务院总理温家宝在江苏调研时曾表示，“决不让房价反弹”。

In fact，There in the plot before and after，The plot the transactions、Trading conditions、Estimated price, etc，Have land and resources in the record。The general office of the state council in the wanliu plot after clinch a deal，Also to Beijing wanliu asks about the plot、Clinch a deal, etc。Before this，The state council premier wen jiabao in jiangsu research has been said，“Never let house prices rebound”。

　　“通知的内容是在国务院级别的会议上进行的讨论而后确定的，至于是否以国务院常务办公会的方式进行公告，尚未确定。”7月20日，前述权威人士向记者表示。

“The content of the notice of the state council is in the level of the meeting to discuss and then determine，As for whether the executive BanGongHui way a public announcement，Have yet to determine the。”July 20,，The foregoing authorities told reporters。

　　回暖归因 Thaw attribution

　　一位参与调研的人士向记者表示，在其调研的城市中，房地产市场成交回暖的主要原因仍是刚性需求为主。

A survey of people in to reporters，In its investigation of the city，The real estate market to clinch a deal the main cause of reverting to is still rigid demands。

　　记者了解到，国务院总理温家宝、国务院副总理李克强均将参加此次会议，听取相关主管部门的汇报，并部署下一阶段落实房地产调控政策的相关工作。2010年、2011年两年，国务院两次召开专题常务办公会，部署确保房地产市场健康平稳发展的相关工作。

The reporter understands，The state council premier wen jiabao、Vice premier li keqiang are will to attend the conference，Listen to related department's report，And deployment next stage of real estate regulation policy carry out relevant work。2010 years、In 2011, two years，The state council two standing BanGongHui for the topic，To ensure that the real estate market deployment health to the steady development of the related work。

　　本次会议首先将听取主管部门对当前房地产市场回暖情况的汇报，并对成因进行分析。一位参与调研的人士向记者表示，在其调研的城市中，房地产市场成交回暖的主要原因仍是刚性需求为主，在严厉限购政策下，首套住房均占有当前房地产成交的大部分比例。

The meeting will first listen to the competent departments of the current real estate market warms up report，And cause of analysis。A survey of people in to reporters，In its investigation of the city，The real estate market to clinch a deal the main cause of reverting to is still rigid demands，In severe 限购 under the policy，The first set of housing has the current real estate transactions are most proportion。

　　北京市住建委的统计数据显示，截至6月，北京新建商品住房成交总量中，首套购房的购买行为约占总成交量的82.3%。“但是，在首次购房者群体中，我们在调研中，也发现由于受到市场预期的影响，购房者提前购房，但没有详细的统计数据分析说明这一情况。”上述参与调研的人士说。

Beijing is built appoint live the statistics，By June，Beijing new commercial housing in total clinch a deal，The first set of buying purchase behavior of total turnover of 82.3%。“but，The first time homebuyers in groups，We in the investigation，Also found that due to the influence of the market expectations，The person that buy a house purchase in advance，But no detailed statistical data analysis show that this situation。”The research of the people involved in the above said。

　　除市场回暖的归因之外，对于当前土地市场也将做有针对性的分析和汇报。7月10日，万柳地块成交当天，按照国务院安排，新华通讯社通过短讯的方式，已经将万柳地王的成交条件、交易现场情况等，上报国务院总理温家宝、副总理李克强审阅。

In addition to market warms up outside the attribution，For the current land market will also do targeted analysis and reporting。July 10,，Wanliu plot on the day to clinch a deal，In accordance with state council arrangement，Xinhua news agency through SMS way，There has been a star conditions、Trading the site condition, etc，To be submitted to the state council premier wen jiabao、Vice premier li keqiang review。

　　记者了解到，在本次会议中，国土部将对土地市场情况进行汇报，并对近期以来土地市场出现的成交价格波动等现象的原因进行分析，并提出有针对性的对策和措施。在此之前，国土资源部在万柳地块成交后第二天，就已经明确表示，要坚决遏制部分地区土地市场的异常波动。

The reporter understands，In the meeting，Land to the land market department report，And since the recent land market clinch a deal price fluctuations in the phenomenon such as analysis of the causes，And put forward some countermeasures and measures。Before this，The ministry of land and resources in the wanliu plot the day after clinch a deal，It has been made clear，To firmly containing parts of land market of abnormal fluctuations。

　　按照国土资源部的规定，对土地成交价格创新高、溢价率超出50%等情况，均被视为异常波动，需上报国土资源部备案。

According to the provisions of the land and resources，Land to clinch a deal the price high innovation、Premium rate exceeded 50%, etc，All were as abnormal fluctuations，Report to the ministry of land and resources for the record。

　　十分微妙的是，2010年，在全国两会结束后第一天，北京一日三次刷新地王价格纪录，最终招致了历史上最为严厉的房地产调控政策。

Very subtle is the，2010 years，In the first days after the two sessions，Beijing three times a day you refresh record prices，Finally the toughest history caused the real estate control policies。

　　预期之战 Expected war

　　真正让国务院和中国经济最高决策层忧心的，是有关房地产市场的“预期”变化。

Real let the state council, China's highest economic decision-making worried，Is the real estate market“expected”change。

　　在温家宝强调“决不让房价反弹”之前，国务院副总理李克强在全国保障性安居工程工作会议上表示，“稳定房地产调控政策，继续坚决遏制投资投机性购房”。实际上，真正让国务院和中国经济最高决策层忧心的，是有关房地产市场的“预期”变化。

In wen jiabao stressed“Never let house prices rebound”before，Vice premier li keqiang in national security project work conference that live，“Stability control policy of real estate，Continue to firmly containing the purchase of speculative investment”。In fact，Real let the state council, China's highest economic decision-making worried，Is the real estate market“expected”change。

　　“对于落实现有房地产调控政策，中央政府的态度是十分坚决的，没有任何动摇和改变，但是，我们也无法忽视现有银根松动给房地产市场的回暖带来的影响。”一位不愿具名的住建部官员向记者表示。

“For implementing the existing real estate control policies，The central government's attitude is a very determined，No any shake and change，but，We cannot ignore the existing monetary policy loose to the real estate market of buoyancy impacts。”An anonymous live JianBu officials told reporters。

　　从2012年6月开始，人民银行两次降息，商业银行亦恢复了对首套住房购置按揭贷款的八五折优惠利率政策，并对首套住房按揭贷款的首付比例按照规定进行优惠。中原地产分析师张大伟向记者表示，一方面银根松动为楼市注入了流动性，另一方面，也在一定程度上改变了市场预期，从而加速了房地产市场的成交回暖。

Since June 2012，The people's bank two cuts，Commercial Banks also restored the first set of housing purchase mortgage can give you interest rate policy，And the first set of housing mortgages loan in accordance with the provisions of the low proportion of discount。ZhangDaWei centaline property analysts to reporters，On the one hand loose monetary policy for into the property market liquidity，On the other hand，Also in some degree change market expectations，Thus accelerate the real estate market clinch a deal the thaw。

　　在这样的背景下，“地王”的出现，又加剧了“回暖”的预期。北京麦田房产(博客,微博)、链家地产等二手房中介机构的统计显示，万柳地块出让后，其所在的北京万柳地区二手房挂牌价格出现10%左右的涨幅，而区域内主要房产中介机构也以此为理由，催促客户签约成交。

In this context，“royal”appear，And aggravate the“warmed”expected。Beijing crop property(blog,Micro bo)、Chain home secondhand the room of intermediary institutions such as real estate statistics show，After the wanliu plot，Its place in the Beijing wanliu secondhand the room for around 10% of the increase in prices，And the main property intermediary institutions within the region also for this reason，Urge the customer signed a deal。

　　张大伟表示，市场和部分机构过分解读了“地王”对市场的影响，从而影响了市场预期。万科、保利等一线房地产开发企业的销售负责人均向本报记者表示，从6月开始陆续已经出现了“托关系买房”的情况，而这种情况通常在房地产市场热度甚高的2009年出现。

ZhangDaWei said，Market and parts of institutions reading too much“royal”The influence of the market，Which affect the market expectations。vanke、Poly waiting for a line of a real estate enterprise is responsible for sales to our reporter says per capita，From June begin to roll in has appeared“'s relationship to buy a house”situation，But this usually in the real estate market is very high heat of available in 2009。

　　“虽然销售不错，但我们没有提价的打算，还是趁市场好消化库存。”万科北京公司副总经理肖劲表示。但是，如万科一般未提价的开发商并不在多数。搜房网统计，6月北京逾40个房地产在售项目，提高了销售价格。

“Although sales good，But we have no plans to raise prices，While the market or good digestive inventory。”China vanke Beijing the vice general manager XiaoJin said。but，As China vanke general not increases the developer is not in the majority。Search room net statistics，June Beijing more than 40 real estate sold in the project，Improve the sales price。

　　张大伟认为，中央出台政策，就是要影响市场预期，促进房价合理回归。

ZhangDaWei think，The central policy，Is to affect the market expectations，Promote the rational regression house prices。