杭州会成为中国第一个无法完成年度财政预算目标的省会城市吗——现在，这还是一个假设。

Hangzhou will become the first Chinese can't achieve annual budget, capital city of the target?-now，This is still a hypothesis。

　　不过，这座美丽的湖滨城市的确在煎熬中。今年上半年，在浙江省的11个市中，杭州是唯一一个财政收入负增长的城市。而在去年，它的财政收入还是全省首位。

but，This beautiful lakeside city really in torment。In the first half of this year，11 cities in zhejiang province，Hangzhou is the only a financial income negative growth city。And at last，Its financial income or the first place。

　　这意味着，今年下半年，杭州的财政收入增速达到29%才能完成年初安排的预算收入目标，从而满足当年财政支出需要。在地产调控不放松、中国经济增速下滑的陪伴下，29%不是一个可以“轻松”完成的增速。

This means that，The second half of this year，Hangzhou fiscal revenue growth reached 29% in early to finish the budget revenue target arrangement，In order to meet the need of fiscal expenditure。The property regulation not to relax、China's economic growth, with the decline，29% is not a can“relaxed”Finish the rate of growth of。

　　还有更急切的：过去几年，杭州城建资金支出大部分来自土地出让金，城建资金支出是由土地出让金的收入来以收定支的；但现在，杭州正在向浙江省委省政府求助，申请财政补贴。

And the more desperate：In the past few years，Hangzhou urban construction expenditure funds from the land grant fee，Urban construction capital expenditures by the land grant fee income is to raised surely；But now，Hangzhou is to zhejiang provincial government for help，Apply for financial subsidies。

　　据了解，今年杭州市预算目标是完成土地出让收入430亿元，不过截至6月底，进账只有106亿元。要知道，三年前，他的土地出让收入曾经创下1200亿元的全国纪录。

According to understand，Hangzhou budget this year goal is to achieve the land transfer income is 43 billion yuan，But by the end of June，The account is only 10.6 billion yuan。Want to know，Three years ago，His land transfer income had a record 120 billion yuan of national record。

　　两年前，本报头版曾以《杭州病》为题，报道这座城市越来越像一个必须依赖土地财政输血的“病人”，现在，“杭州病”正在蔓延。“地方在吃自己种下的恶果。”江西财经大学副校长蒋金法直言。

Two years ago，This newspaper has been the front page《Hangzhou disease》issues，Report the city more and more like a must rely on land of financial blood transfusion“The patient”，now，“Hangzhou disease”Is spreading。“In a place to eat their own scruples。”Jiangxi university of finance and economics JiangJinFa vice President of truth。

　　尽管一切远未结束，但告别土地财政的挽歌已隐然奏响。

Although everything is far from over，But to say goodbye to land financial elegy already concealed playing。

　　地方财政对土地收益的高度依赖已引起高层关注。本报获悉，财政部正着手研究地方财政对土地的依赖程度。这首先要对土地相关收入进行全国性摸底，届时与土地相关的出让金收入、土地相关税费甚至土地抵押贷款收入等都要进行摸底统计。

Local fiscal revenue to land the highly dependent on top has caused concern。Our newspaper that，The Treasury is investigating the local public finance to the reliance of the land。The first to land related income novelty nationwide，When the land of sell one's own things and related income、Land the relevant taxes and even the land income of mortgage loans to touch bottom statistics。

　　这，似乎是一个信号。

this，Seems to be a signal。

　　求助 For help

　　近日，杭州向浙江省委省政府提交了一份报告，报告中列举了杭州今年的重点项目以及需要的资金投入，其中最重要的一块投入就是交通，包括地铁、高铁和高速公路。此外还列举文化产业、民生保障等，要求省政府在对应的专项资金中拨款给予支持。

recently，Hangzhou to zhejiang provincial government submitted a report，The hangzhou are listed in the report this year, the focus of the project and the need for funds，One of the most important piece of investment is the transportation，Including subway、The high speed rail and highway。In addition also listed the cultural industry、Guarantee the people's livelihood，The provincial government in the corresponding requirements in special funds for their support。

　　杭州市申请的财政补贴主要为专项转移支付，对应具体项目，专款专用。一般转移支付通常按照地方过去几年财政收入、人口等情况按照统一公式计算并发放。据了解，杭州过去几年财力好，一般转移支付很难争取到，中央也很少倾向浙江这样的东部省市。

Hangzhou financial subsidies for mainly for special transfer payment，Corresponding specific projects，earmarking。General transfer payments usually over the past few years finance income in accordance with the place、The circumstance such as population as a unified formula and extend。According to understand，Hangzhou financial resources in the past few years，The general transfer payment is hard to get，The central rarely tendency to the east of zhejiang such provinces and cities。

　　杭州市发改委一位官员表示，由于政府财力受限，一些计划的建设项目，如铁路等确实是要暂时缓一缓了。

Hangzhou municipal development and reform commission an official said，As the government limited financial resources，Some planning construction project，Such as railway is really to have made several enquiries。

　　根据杭州市地铁集团的原定计划，地铁一期工程总投资达349.36亿元，计划于2011年底建成通车。由地铁1号线、地铁2号线和地铁4号线部分线路组成。而根据最新的计划，1号线将于今年10月1日正式进入试运营，2号线东南段将于2013年底通车。按照原定计划，杭州地铁2号线西北段2011年9月初开始动工，计划5年后建成。但到今年3月31日，对西北段的拆迁工作才刚刚展开。

According to hangzhou city metro group of the original plan，Phase one subway project with a total investment of 34.936 billion yuan，Plan built in the end of 2011 to the traffic。By metro line 1、Metro line 2 and metro line 4 as part of lines。And according to the latest plan，Line 1 will be released this October 1 officially enters the trial operation，2 line for southeast will in the end of 2013 to the traffic。According to the original plan，Hangzhou metro line 2 northwest section in early September 2011 started，After five years plan is completed。But to this year March 31,，In the northwest part of the demolition work has just launched。

　　一家承揽地铁装潢项目的公司表示，他们承接了一号线7个站点的装潢，装修进度已达70%，但到6月份为止，资金全部由公司垫付，而每个地铁站的装潢费用大概500-1000万。而根据原定协议，“款项拖欠后，对企业上下游生产商都会产生影响。”

A contracting subway decoration projects company says，They continued to be the no.1 seven sites decorate，Decorate progress already amounted to 70%，But until June，All funds by the company paid，And each of the packaging cost subway station is about 500-10 million。And according to the original agreement，“Default payment after，For enterprise upstream and downstream producers will have an impact。”

　　据了解，一号线由杭州地铁集团招标，其55%的建设资金由财政拨款。

According to understand，By hangzhou no.1 subway group tender，55% of its construction appropriating funds。

　　2011年，杭州市完成公共财政收入785.15亿元，稳居全省首位。“杭州都是自筹资金解决问题，要补助的情况并不多。”一位浙江省政府人士表示。

2011 years，Hangzhou complete public finance income is 78.515 billion yuan，Comfortably in the first place。“Hangzhou is self-raised funds to solve problems，The case is not to subsidies。”A zhejiang province people government said。

　　但今年上半年，杭州公共财政收入只完成了460.6亿元，比去年同期下降2.7%。若要完成全年863亿元的目标，下半年杭州财政增速要达29%。

But in the first half of this year，Hangzhou public finance income only completed the 46.06 billion yuan，2.7% lower than the same period last year。If you want to complete the annual 86.3 billion yuan goal，The second half of the financial growth of 29% to hangzhou。

　　预算目标之所以重要是因为如果公共预算收入完不成，不仅影响一些项目的进度，甚至有可能影响与民生有关的一些支出。

The budget goal is important because if public budget income to finish，Not only affects some the schedule of the project，Even with the people's livelihood may influence some of the spending。

　　“在项目上可以申请专项转移支付，也可以发行城投债、融资等，但如果社保等支出受到影响，那必将进行全国性的统筹，这需要在年度中进行调整，包括减支也包括扩大赤字。”中国社科院财经战略研究院财政研究室主任杨志勇说。

“In the project can apply for the special transfer payment，Can also issued debt for the city、financing，But if social security expenses such as affected，That will carry on national plan as a whole，This needs to be in the adjustment，Including in order to expand the deficit also includes。”China academy of financial director of research institute of financial strategy YangZhiYong said。

　　“杭州病”扩散 “Hangzhou disease”diffusion

　　一位杭州税务部门官员称，江浙民营企业目前普遍利润下降，而前两年火爆的票据贴现业务因温州民间资金连断裂等原因基本停滞。当地外贸企业虽多，但“外贸出口有增值税退税政策，外贸企业利润并不高，企业所得税也不会有太多。”财政增收困难与此有关。但最关键的原因，是杭州土地出让收入锐减以及房地产业的不景气。

A hangzhou tax department official says，Jiangsu is generally private enterprise profit margin，And two years before the bill discount for hot wenzhou business folk capital even fault and so on basic reason stagnation。Local though foreign trade enterprises，but“Export trade has value added tax drawback policy，Foreign trade enterprise profit is not high，Enterprise income tax also won't have too much。”Financial income difficulties and relevant here。But the key reasons，Hangzhou is the land transfer income declined and the real estate industry of recession。

　　一位杭州国土部门官员感叹，前几年无论是在供地方面，还是在资金保障方面，日子都很好过。但从去年开始，因为房地产市场萎缩导致土地交易量价齐跌，雪上加霜的是土地出让金的回收越来越难。

A hangzhou homeland department officials exclamation，A few years ago for both in，Or in funding，Days are very good。But since last year，Because the real estate market atrophy leads to land price fall trading volume together，To add to the misery of the land grant fee of the recovery is more and more difficult。

　　土地出让整体收入的下降又影响到了政府进一步土地收购和储备的进度，地方政府土地买卖循环变得很不顺畅。上述官员预计，土地出让金欠缴的量可能会逐步增加，开工率会逐步降低，导致土地出让收入和土地相关税费收缴困难。

The land transfer whole incomes decrease and affected the government land acquisitions and reserves of further progress，The local government land sales circulation becomes very smooth。The officials are expected to，The amount of capture the land grant fee may be increasing，Starts will gradually decrease，Lead to land transfer income and land the relevant taxes take over the difficulties。

　　回看2009年，杭州土地出让收入全国排名第一，达到1200亿元，而其地方公共财政收入仅有500多亿元。大量的基建和公共项目依赖土地出让金，这些基建项目又带来了巨大的相关税收。

Back to see 2009，Hangzhou land transfer income ranked the first，Reach 120 billion yuan，And the local public finance income only 500 more than one hundred million yuan。A lot of infrastructure and public projects dependent on land transfer fund，These infrastructure projects and brought great related tax。

　　土地带来的收益不止出让金，还进而影响到营业税、城建税、土地增值税、耕地占用税、城镇土地使用税、契税等多个地方税收收入。

Land of the benefits of more than sell one's own things，Also affect business tax、City building duty、Land value added tax、Cultivated land occupied tax、Town land royalities、Agree tax, and other local tax revenue。

　　2009年，在全球金融危机下，全国税收仍增长11.7%，其中房地产相关税收贡献率达30%以上。同一年，上海以991亿元的土地出让收入荣登榜眼。北京以922亿元收入排名第三。2010和2011年，上海蝉联土地出让收入冠军宝座。

2009 years，In the global financial crisis，The national tax has increased by 11.7%，One real estate related tax contribution rate of more than 30%。That same year，Shanghai with 99.1 billion yuan land transfer income on BangYan。Beijing with 92.2 billion yuan income no. 3。2010 and 2011，Shanghai ranked land transfer income champion。

　　而这几个土地收入大市在今年都面临同样问题，即下半年都要拿出比其他省市更多的努力去完成年初设定的预算目标。

And this land income this year several leading market are facing the same problem，The second half of that is to show more than other provinces and cities more effort to accomplish the goals set in early budget。

　　北京在下半年财政收入增速必须超过15.75%才能实现年初的目标。今年上半年北京财政收入增速为5.3%，低于预算规定的10%。上海则需在下半年完成16.7%的增速。

Beijing financial income growth in the second half to more than 15.75% at the beginning of the year to achieve the goal。In the first half of this year Beijing financial income growth of 5.3%，Less than 10% of the budget rules。Shanghai will need to complete the rate of growth of 16.7% in the second half。

　　北京地税部门的一位官员说，下半年收入压力非常大，以往作为地税收入最大增长点的房地产和土地相关税费增速大幅下降，营业税、土地相关税费一度负增长。

Beijing land tax section, an official said，The second half of income very great pressure，As land tax revenue growth in the past the biggest real estate and land the relevant taxes growth down dramatically，Business tax、Land the relevant taxes once negative growth。

　　中国指数研究院公布的数据显示，今年上半年全国300个城市土地出让金排行中，上海从第一宝座跌落至第九名，只完成了184.2亿元，是去年同期的四成。北京则无缘前十，比去年同期下降56%。

China index academy figures show，In the first half of this year in over 300 cities in the seniority of land sell one's own things，Shanghai first dropped to the throne from ninth place，Only completed the 18.42 billion yuan，Is forty percent over the same period last year。Beijing has no the first 10，56% lower than the same period last year。

　　一位地方国土部门官员说，“土地财政也就是这五六年突飞猛进发展起来，现在好像离了土地，地方政府各方面都受到影响，包括发工资。”

A local homeland department officials said，“This is the land finance six years developed by leaps and bounds，Now it's like away from the land，The local government all aspects are affected，Including wages。”

　　在一些基层政府，年终要拿一块地卖了以后才能发工资。

In some grassroots governments，Take a year-end and sell before we send salary。

　　成都一位政府官员说，当地有一块土地刚刚整理出来，有很多区县政府表现出强烈兴趣，但并不是开发，而是在银行抵押进行融资，进而进行一些基建项目的开展。

Chengdu, a government official said，There is a local land just sorted out，Have a lot of area county government show strong interest，But not development，But in the bank mortgage finance，And then some infrastructure project development。

　　这些现象已引起有关方面的关注，对土地相关收入进行全国性摸底将是可能的行动。一位地方官员担心，摸底可能会使地方违规土地抵押融资等情况一一暴露出来。

This phenomenon has caused the attention，Related to land income will be possible to try to national action。A local officials worry，Touch bottom may make illegal land where the circumstance such as mortgage refinance--exposed。

　　破除循环 Break the cycle

　　地方政府对上半年财政收入增速下滑的表现让蒋金法无法接受。“只是增速下降了一些，政府那个着急那个心疼，接下来的减税也不再有大动作”。

Local government to finance income growth during the first half of the decline JiangJinFa performances can't accept it。“Just growth down a bit，The government that worry that love dearly，The next tax cuts will no longer have the big action”。

　　在蒋金法看来，土地财政是中国城镇化过程中走了偏路。他认为，地方政府对土地的依赖，让中国的结构调整，产业转型等改革异常艰难。“地方政府卖土地，搞基建，地价高涨，房价就下不去，高房价套牢了购房者，其他消费无法释放，制造业就卖不动商品，这样实体经济就好不了，实体经济不振，税收就上不来，税收少，钱不够花，地方又想办法卖地，再搞基建……现在地方政府正处在这样的恶性循环中。”

In JiangJinFa seems，Finance is the land of China in the process of urbanization go partial road。He thinks，Local government to rely on the land，To adjust the structure of China，Industry reform an unusually difficult transition。“The local government to sell the land，Make infrastructure，Land price rising，House prices will XiaBuQu，That high prices over the homeowners，Other consumer can't release，Manufacturing can not sell move goods，This is not the real economy，Entity economic malaise，Tax on not to come，Less tax，Money is not enough，Places and trying to land，To do infrastructure......Now the local government is in such a vicious cycle。”

　　在一些专家看来，破除这种循环，中国需要深化正在进行的财税体制改革、收入分配改革等。

In some experts opinion，Break the cycle，China needs to deepen the reform of the fiscal and taxation systems are、Reform of the income distribution, etc。

　　在循环的另一面，依靠土地财政上大做文章的杭州、北京和上海等城市，从今年开始也已经越来越无法靠土地寻发展。

On the other side of the cycle，Rely on financial capitalize on land of hangzhou、Beijing and Shanghai city，From the beginning of this year has also more and more can't depend on the land for development。

　　杭州的土地后备资源非常缺乏，目前杭州市内已经无法做到耕地占一补一的平衡，没有全省的支持，杭州已到了无地可用的地步。

Hangzhou land reserve resources very lack of，At present, hangzhou has been unable to do in the city of the plow land occupied the balance，Without the support of the whole province，Hangzhou has reached the point where a available。

　　一位上海市政府官员表示，上海的整个城市建设用地的比重占整个用地比重，实际上已经到了土地和环境承载力的上限。而北京市财政局局长杨晓超也称，北京土地资源稀缺，人口资源环境压力加大，财政主要依靠房地产收入这样一种模式已不可持续。

One of the Shanghai municipal government, officials said，Shanghai whole urban construction land of the proportion of the proportion of land，In fact have to land and environmental bearing capacity of the upper limit。And Beijing municipal bureau of finance chief YangXiaoChao also says，Beijing land resources are scarce，The pressure on resources and environment, population increase，Financial rely mainly on the real estate income such a pattern already unsustainable。

　　土地财政和地方经济看似牢固的利益链，已经出现断裂，也许这正是结束的开始。

Land financial and the local economy seems firm benefit chain，Have appear rupture，Perhaps this was the beginning of the end。