7月下旬，随着房地产调控政策出现的一些微妙调整，京城楼市也在悄然发生变化。

In late July，Along with the real estate in some subtle control policy adjustment，Beijing property market is also in changes quietly。

　　据《中国建设报?中国住房》记者了解，目前，“狙击房价上涨预期，严防房价反弹”已受到高层关注，国务院相关机构也对近期土地市场及楼市的异常变化进行了解调查。

According to《China construction news?China's housing》The reporter understands，At present，“Sniper rising house prices expected，Defend house prices rebound”Top concern has been，The state council and relevant organizations to recent land market and abnormal changes of the property market understanding survey。

　　“今年一季度更多是自住性需求释放，但从二季度开始，预期对市场带来的变化非常明显。”业内专家认为，随着稳定预期政策的陆续公布，京城一度发生变化的市场将逐步稳定下来。

“Since the first quarter of this year is more live sexual needs to release，But in the second quarter from the start，Expected to changes in the market is very apparent。”The expert inside course of study thinks，With stable expected policy released in succession，Once the changes of market capital will be gradually to stabilize。

　

　“回来”的折扣 “back”discount

　　近日，记者经常收到保利春天里项目的短信：“项目二期开盘，一至四居，优惠已出：3万元到10万元左右。凭此短信，办理基金卡，可享万元优惠。”但是仅仅半个月前，该项目还声称将逐渐取消折扣。

recently，Reporters often receive text messages in the spring poly project：“Project phase ii est，One to four in，Preferential out has：30000 yuan to 100000 yuan。With the text messages，Deals with fund card，Ten thousand yuan to enjoy preferential。”But only half a month ago，The project also says it will gradually cancel the discount。

　　这条短信似乎让人感觉刚刚消失的折扣又回来了。而这个折扣出台背景是，8月份大兴天宫院区域将有3个纯新盘入市，这样，该区域在售楼盘量就达到了7个，总供应量达到200多万平方米，一场激烈的肉搏战即将开打。

The message seemed to let a person feel just disappear discount and come back。And the discount on background is，August daxing day area will have three amon pure XinPan market，this，This area is sold in the building dish to reach 7，Total supply to more than 200 square meters，A fierce hand-to-hand fighting is about to open。

　　“在保利春天里北侧的金融街融汇项目要开了，价格更便宜一些。”在大兴天宫院即将开盘的3个新项目中，由国企开发的金融街融汇是最受关注的一个，还没开盘，巨大的现场广告围挡已经立了起来。在天宫院地铁站西北出口，还有一辆挂着项目销售电话号码横幅的车长期驻守。

“In the spring of the north of poly financial street with the project to be open，The price is cheaper。”In daxing day to the opening of the three amon new projects，The development of financial street with by state-owned enterprises is the biggest concern a，Haven't opened，Great site advertising WeiDang has made up。In the days and amon northwest export subway station，And one hung project sales telephone number banners car stationed in the long term。

　　金融街融汇的销售员小高介绍，项目一期微公馆将在8月底或9月初开盘，三栋楼600多套。

Fusion financial street salesman boy (xiao gao is introduced，The first phase of micro in late August or early September open quotation，Three building more than 600 sets。

　　“价格在1.4～1.5万元，但我们是精装修，精装标准在每平方米1500元左右。我们边儿上的项目都是毛坯房，价格都到1.5万元以上了。目前是前期排号期，您现在要来办理‘微账户’，最多还可以享受3万元的优惠。”小高补充说。

“The price in 1.4 ~ 15000 yuan，But we are fine decoration，Hardcover standards in every square metre 1500 yuan。We items on the edge is semifinished product room，Price to 15000 yuan of above。Now is the PaiHao period，You will now to deal with‘Micro account’，Most can also enjoy the preferential 30000 yuan。”Boy (xiao gao added。

　　中国水电(601669,股吧)云立方也在这个区域，开盘时间也是8月底或9月初，套型面积以一至三居为主，不过他们的销售价格还没有定。

China's water and electricity(601669,Shares it)Cloud cubic also in this area，Opening time is late August or early September，Model to one to three in the area to give priority to，But their sales prices have not made。

　　“我们的开盘价虽然没定，但您可以看看周边在售项目的价格，我们的开盘价肯定要比他们低一些。”销售员小徐明确地说。

“Our opening price although't decided，But you can see sold in the surrounding the price of the project，Our opening price will be better than they lower。”Small XuMingQue salesman said。

　　天宫院区域8月份即将开盘的还有珺悦国际，是一个50年产权的项目，位置离地铁4号线更偏一些，该项目目前也还没有明确定价，但销售员常小姐同样信誓旦旦地承诺：价格不会比周边项目高，另外，赠送精装修，精装标准在3500元左右。

Day in August and amon is the opening of the regional and international Jun delights，Is a 50 years property projects，Position from the subway line 4 partial some more，This project is also no clear pricing，But the same vow to commit to ChangXiaoJie salesman：The price will not than surrounding project high，In addition，Give fine decoration，Hardcover standard in 3500 yuan。

　　因此，面对新盘的低价入市，老项目压力很大，其中，受影响最大的是目前正热销的保利春天里。

so，XinPan face of the low price market，Old projects are under a lot of pressure，Among them，The countries most affected are now hot spring is poly。

　　尽管保利春天里的销售员不承认二期低价开盘是为了抢市场，但业内人士还是解读为战前“示威”。

Although spring salesman poly not admit that second phase is to rob the market opened lower，But industry insiders or read as before the war“demonstrations”。

　　另外，金融街融汇微公馆1.4～1.5万元的开盘报价，也被视为“拉客户”的烟幕弹：这明显要吸引客户、稳住客源。“70至78平方米的二居，比80多平方米的二居，能省出一辆车钱。”金融街融汇微公馆宣传中的这段描述，也被认为是有所指向。

In addition，Financial street with micro residence 1.4 ~ 15000 yuan of open quotation price，Can also be seen as“Pull customers”Of smoke：This obviously want to attract customers、Steady tourists。“70 to 78 square meters of the two，More than 80 square meters of the two，Can save a one fares。”Financial street with the residence of the propaganda this description，Is also believed to have。

　　稳定预期 Steady anticipation

　　多年来，房地产开发商以“刚性需求”的存在为由，释放出市场总是供不应求的信号。

For many years，Real estate developers to“Rigid demand”For the existence of，Release the market are always in demand signal。

　　但多位经济学者表示，自2007年以来，房地产投资属性凸显，单纯的供求规律已失效，在预期主导之下，所谓的“刚性需求”并不存在。

But many economists said，Since 2007，Real estate investment properties highlight，The supply and demand of simple rule has run out，In the expected under the dominant，The so-called“Rigid demand”Does not exist。

　　全国政协常委、国务院参事李庆云认为，“住房刚需”的提法误导公众，营造了房价不断上涨预期。

The Chinese people's political consultative conference、The state council advisors LiQingYun think，“Housing just need to”The formulation of misleading the public，Build up house prices rising expectations。

　　李庆云进一步指出，住房需求应该是有效需求，所谓有效需求是指有购买能力、有支付能力的需求。特别对中等收入者而言，如果房价能够有一定幅度下降，他们去消费才会推动中国经济发展。

LiQingYun further pointed out，Housing demand should be effective demand，The so-called effective demand is to the purchasing power、With the ability to pay demand。Especially for middle-income earners，If house prices can have certain range decreases，They will promote consumption to China's economic development。

　　万科从来不用“刚性需求”，而代之以自住性需求一词，这包含了两层含义。“房地产进入下半场，对于住宅市场而言，就是要盖满足自住需求、有人住的房子，投资投机需求则渐被排除。”万科总裁郁亮认为。

Vanke never“Rigid demand”，Instead of self living sexual needs a word，It contains two meanings。“Real estate into the second half，As for the housing market，Is to meet the demand from cover live、People live house，Speculative investment demand is gradually be ruled out。”China vanke President YuLiang think。

　　那么，如果剔除投资投机，真正的自住需求每年有多少？

so，If eliminate speculative investment，The real self living demand how much each year？

　　记者统计发现，过去10年，中国内地新建住宅销量年均在8亿平方米左右，受货币政策推动，2009年至2011年持续上升，年销量在2011年达到超过11亿平方米的高峰。

Reporter statistics found that，In the past 10 years，The Chinese mainland new residence annual sales in 800 million square metre，Push by monetary policy，2009 to 2011 continued to rise，Years sales in 2011 to more than 1.1 billion square meters of peak。

　　金地董事长凌克称，在此之后，新建住宅市场每年的销售量将降至7～8亿平方米，这其中还包括保障房。未来，随着城市化和人口红利效应递减，人均居住面积增长空间也将持续收缩。

The chairman LingKe gold said，After this，New residence market every year sales will drop to seven to 800 million square meters，This including security room。future，With the bonus effect of urbanization and population decline，The living area per capita growth space also will continue to shrink。

　　事实上，库存高企、供大于求是当前许多城市的现实状况。以天津为例，中国指数研究院天津分院研究总监钟文辉介绍，天津住宅库存量达到历史新高。自2011年4月至2012年6月，销供比连续15个月小于1，市场供过于求态势凸显。

In fact，High inventory、Supply is the current situation in many of the cities。In tianjin, for example，China index academy director ZhongWenHui introduces the tianjin branch，Tianjin residential inventories reach a record high。Since April 2011 to June 2012，Pin for for 15 months than less than 1，A glut on the market situation highlights。

　　事实上，真正让国务院和中国经济最高决策层忧心的，是有关房地产市场的“预期”变化。

In fact，Real let the state council, China's highest economic decision-making worried，Is the real estate market“expected”change。

　　住房和城乡建设部政策研究中心主任秦虹认为，稳定预期，是今后调控的一大重点。她提出建议，楼市调控要去杠杆化，长期抑制投资投机需求。

Housing and rural construction, director of the center for policy research QinHong think，Steady anticipation，Is the regulation of a big key。She put forward the suggestion that，Property market regulation to leveraged，Long-term investment speculative demand inhibition。

　　广东省副省长许瑞生近日在广东省房地产市场调控和住房保障工作座谈会上表示，今后将强化督查考核，严格执行约谈问责制度。

The vice governor of guangdong province XuRuiSheng recently in guangdong real estate market regulation and housing safeguard work forum said，Future will strengthen supervision inspection，Strictly carry out interviews accountability system。

　　许瑞生指的是，新建住房价格出现过快上涨势头、土地出让中连续出现楼面地价超过同类地块历史最高价，以及保障性安居工程建设进度缓慢、租售管理和后期使用监管不力的，都将按照规定对相关负责人进行问责。

XuRuiSheng refers to，New housing prices rise rapidly momentum appears、The land transfer is present continuously in the floor price more than similar plot history the highest prices，And supportability project construction live slow、Rental management and later use of the poor supervision，Will those responsible for according to the regulation on accountability。

　　广州某大型房企高管人士认为，这也许是高层意识到预期的重要性，逐渐在探索和改变调控的手段和方法，不断向市场释放调控从严信息，对冲市场过热。

Guangzhou a large room enterprise executives who believe，This may be aware of the importance of high expectations，Gradually in exploration and change the means and methods of control，To keep the market regulation strictly release information，Hedge overheating market。