2012楼市棋到中盘，量价双双回暖已成定局。尽管政府一再喊话，市场上仍流言一片，有人高呼“下半年房价大涨已经不可避免”，有声音说“房价再反弹必将招致史上最严调控”……众说纷纭之际，本报独家采访“数据派”掌门人、全国工商联房地产商会会长聂梅生教授。

2012 property market is to the central disk，Both quantity and price of warmed already in place。Although the government has repeatedly propaganda，The market is still a gossip，Someone shouted“House prices surged in the second half have become inevitable”，A voice said“House prices rebound will incur again history's strict regulation”......Twittering of，Our exclusive interview with“Data sent”Chief executive、The national association of industry and commerce of real estate chamber of commerce NieMeiSheng professor。

　　房价不涨不降，是宏观调控的最佳成果

House prices going up，Is the best results macro-control

　　“我是习惯用数据说话的。去年底各权威机构、专家学者预测调控后的房价，当时最低的预期是降20%，最高说要降50%。今年春媒体还发动全民"算合理房价"，算的结果是至少降50%以上，”聂梅生说，“而我说最多是降10%，理论依据是房价的涨幅不应高于人均收入和GDP的增速太多，低也不可能低于CPI、PPI太多。我当时说这话的结果是遭到一片"炮轰"。”

“I am used to talk data。At the end of the authoritative organization、Experts predict regulated prices，At that time the lowest 20% reduction is expected，The highest pronounced 50%。This year spring media also launched a nationwide"Reasonable prices"，The result is at least drop 50%，”NieMeiSheng said，“And I said most is down 10%，Theory is based on house prices have gone shall not be higher than the rate of growth of GDP per capita income and too much，Low also could not less than CPI、PPI too much。At that time, I said this is the result of was a"shelling"。”

　　而北京市房地产协会发布的数据显示，2012年的上半年的北京房价降幅为9.7%。数据证明，遭到“炮轰”的聂梅生的预测反而最接近事实。

And the Beijing real estate association issued figures show，The first half of 2012 Beijing house prices fell by 9.7%。Data prove，was“shelling”NieMeiSheng instead of prediction of the most close to the truth。

　　“如果从我手头全国的数据来看，按100个城市住宅价格的中位数计算，全国住宅价格中位数为5750元/平方米，6月环比上涨0.88%，”聂梅生说，“也就是说，房价目前不涨不降的总体局面就是宏观调控的最佳成果，我们应该珍惜这一成果，保护这一成果。”

“If I'm hand from the national data to see，According to 100 cities in the median number of house prices in calculation，The national median home prices for 5750 yuan/square metre，6 y/y rose 0.88%，”NieMeiSheng said，“That is，House prices are currently not up the overall situation is not drop of macro-control best results，We should cherish this achievement，Protect the results。”

　　聂梅生认为，如果仅仅从房价没有大幅下降来评估调控的成功并不客观。她告诉记者：“房地产的博弈包括政府、银行、开发商和购房人四方。从调控成果看，银行虽然是大赢家，但政府挤掉了土地泡沫，开发商挤掉了价格泡沫，购房人去除了投机泡沫，保障房建设现在也取得了重大进展。综合来看，调控的影响并没有导致零和游戏的出现，这就是成功。”

NieMeiSheng think，If house prices fell sharply from not only to evaluate the success of the regulation is not objective。She told reporters：“Real estate game includes the government、bank、Developers and the four winds of the person that buy a house。From regulation results look，Though the Banks is the winner，But the government edges out land bubble，Developers edges out price bubbles，In addition to the person that buy a house of a speculative bubble，Security room construction now also has made a great progress。Comprehensive to see，The effect of regulation and have led to the emergence of a zero-sum game，This is the successful。”

　　在“稳增长”的前提下，调控会非常谨慎

in“Steady growth”Under the premise of，Regulation will be very cautious

　　对于目前热议的“房价上涨将会引来更严厉调控”的看法，聂梅生则认为，现在政策的指向是稳定调控。限购实施以来，已经控制了房价的上涨，全国市场基本保持比较稳定。在这种情况下，出台更严厉政策的必要性和可能性都不太大。

For the present of hot debate“Rising house prices will draw more stringent regulation”view，NieMeiSheng argue that，Now the point of the policy is stability control。限购 since the implementation of，Has controlled the rise in house prices，The national basic market to keep steady。In this case，More severe policy on the necessity and possibility of are not too big。

　　“长期以来有一种声音，就是希望弱化房地产的经济支柱产业的作用，把更多的投资集中在增长率更高的高科技、消费类产业经济中，”聂梅生说，“这种设想很美好，房地产业由投资拉动转向与其它新兴产业融合共生，实现对国民经济和消费的承载作用转型，这是我们发展的长期目标，但不是短期可以达到的。至少还需要三到五年的时间。”

“For a long time have a voice，The economy is to weaken the real estate pillar industry role，The more investment focus on growth higher high-tech、Consumer industry in economy，”NieMeiSheng said，“This assumption is very good，The real estate industry by investment with other emerging industry to pull fusion symbiosis，To realize the national economy and the consumption of the bearing role transformation，This is our development of long-term goals，But not short-term can achieve。At least need three to five years time。”

　　聂梅生认为，调控房地产市场是有经济代价的。她说：“如果房地产市场降温过快，包括上下游的20多个关联性实体经济领域的增长速度和下游的就业问题都会凸显出现。在目前保持经济"稳增长"的大前提下，政府对房地产市场的调控会非常谨慎。”

NieMeiSheng think，Regulating the real estate market is the economic price。She said：“If real estate market cooling too fast，Including upstream and downstream more than 20 relevance entity in the field of economic growth and employment will highlight the downstream to appear。In the current is kept the economy"Steady growth"The premise of，The government on real estate market regulation will be very cautious。”

　　为避免经济“硬着陆”，房价的刚性很难被击穿

To avoid economic“A hard landing”，The prices of rigid is difficult to breakdown

　　聂梅生认为，房价成本组成中存在“钢地板”，也即刚性成本。如土地价格、建筑成本和人力成本、税费等，当房价降50%时，有可能已经在成本价之下了。在调控去掉了房价中投机因素造成的泡沫后，一味期待房价过快下降的想法并不现实。她指出：“房价跌幅达到50%的现象在美国、日本都出现过。其发生过程为：价格低于成本（亏损）资不抵债破产银行收购折价拍卖。”

NieMeiSheng think，The house price cost existed in composition“Steel floor”，That rigid cost。Such as land price、The construction cost and the human cost、Taxes, etc，When prices drop 50%，Probably already has been under at cost。In the regulation to remove in house price speculation factors after bubble，House prices fall too fast to blindly the idea is not reality。She points out that：“House price declines of 50% in the United States phenomenon、Japan had appeared。Its clinical course for：Price below cost（losses）Insolvency bankruptcy bank purchase discount the auction。”

　　“如果中国出现这种情况，如果中国大量房地产企业也走上这条路，最先倒下的恐怕不是房产商，而是上下游产业。这也就是所谓的"硬着陆"。而这种局面是我们的政府、社会都不愿看到和希望发生的，”聂梅生说，“所以说，为了避免"硬着陆"的出现，房价的"钢地板"是很难被击穿的。”

“If China appear this kind of circumstance，If China's large real estate enterprise also took to the road，The first fallen I'm afraid not property developers，But the upstream and downstream industry。This also is the so-called"A hard landing"。And the situation is our government、Society do not want to see and hope that happens，”NieMeiSheng said，“so，In order to avoid"A hard landing"appear，House prices"Steel floor"It is hard to be breakdown。”

　　而对于调控以来，出现的一部分企业退出北京等一线市场，一部分企业大量出售项目、土地以图渡过难关的现象，聂梅生则认为：“洗牌是正常现象，北京外的地区也许空间会更大一些。国有企业和一些民营企业都在洗牌，都在以大吃小。这说明我国的房地产企业的集中度还不够高，优胜劣汰、大鱼吃小鱼的现场在市场经济中是正常现象。”

For since the regulation，Part of the enterprise exit Beijing appear first market，Part of the enterprise selling a huge project、Land in an effort to tide over the difficulties phenomenon，NieMeiSheng argue that：“Shuffle is normal phenomenon，The Beijing area maybe space will be more big some。The state-owned enterprise and some private enterprise is shuffling，Be in with big eat small。It shows that China's real estate enterprise the concentration degree of the high enough，Superior bad discard、The great fish eat up the small site in market economy is normal phenomenon。”

　　本报记者 胡喆

Our correspondent 胡喆

　　建议

suggest

　　现在是出手的最佳时期

Now is the best time shots

　　“现在很多媒体、机构都在向我咨询，什么时候是出手的最佳时机？我的回答是，现在就是出手的最佳时期，甚至如果再早一点，比如3月份的时候会更好，”聂梅生说，“房地产业的"软着落"已经到最后阶段，我认为房价目前已经到了筑底阶段。”

“Now a lot of media、Agencies are in to my advice，When is the best time to make moves？My answer is，Now is the best time shots，Even if again earlier，Such as the march issue of the time will be better，”NieMeiSheng said，“Real estate industry"A soft landing"Have to final stage，I think that house prices have reached the bottom of the building at present stage。”

　　对于进入7月以来，北京等地区出现房价反弹、楼盘价格普涨的现象，聂梅生认为，这只是筑底阶段的一些现象，并不意味着房价将出现快速反弹。她告诉记者：“所谓筑底，就是房价小幅上上下下的过程，通过小幅盘整，不断夯实底部。房价如此，投资也如此，老百姓入市的积极性也如此。大概经过一两个季度，大家发现，涨也涨不到哪里去，降也降不到哪里去，就应该达到筑底了。”

Since July to enter，Beijing appear rebound in house prices、Building dish the phenomenon of general goes up prices，NieMeiSheng think，This is just some of the phenomenon of building stage，Doesn't mean that prices will appear fast rebound。She told reporters：“Build the so-called，Is a small house prices going up and down process，Through the small consolidation，Continuously tamp bottom。House prices so，Investment also so，The enthusiasm of people entering the market, too。Probably after a two quarters，They found out that，Rise up and not go，Drop fell less than where，It should reach the bottom of the building。”

　　但聂梅生同时也提出警告，她认为：“开发商现在买地的积极性不大，投资在继续减少，这就意味着供给减少，就意味着将来涨价。目前的库存看似多，但以现在的销售量来计算，也就是支撑一年半载。而开发商存量土地的开发和消费者买房之间还有一段距离，如果出现"断档"，不排除房价出现阶段性反弹的可能。”

But NieMeiSheng also warned，She thought：“Developers to buy now the enthusiasm of is not big，Investment in continue to decline，This means that supply reduced，Means that the future price increases。The current inventory seemingly more，But with the current sales to calculate，Also is YiNianBanZai support。And the development of the stock land developers and consumers to buy a house and a distance between，If there"DuanDang"，Don't rule out the possibility of phased rebound in house prices。”

　　“政府不会让房地产使经济熄火，当然也不会再加油门。我觉得就是巩固调控成果，稳定调控成果，防止房价反弹，使其回归合理，哪里反弹就调整哪里。”聂梅生认为，让各界对房价有一个合理的预期是才是政府的真实意图，政府的责任现在不是再出台一些新打压措施，而是引导大家的合理预期。”

“The government won't let real estate to make the economy stall，Of course also won't come on the door。I think is to consolidate control results，Stability control results，Prevent house prices rebound，The reasonable return，Where adjust rebound。”NieMeiSheng think，Let the from all walks of life to the house have a reasonable is expected to be the real intention of the government，The government's responsibility is now is not on some new measures to crack down on，But guides everybody expected the reasonable。”