【财经网(博客,微博)专稿】记者 王熙喜 【Financial nets(blog,Micro bo)ZhuanGao】Reporter WangXiXi

　　7月17日，中国人民银行上海总部发给记者的邮件显示，上半年上海个人住房贷款仅增加0.6亿元，同比少增188亿元。

July 17,，The people's bank of China in Shanghai headquarters to reporters that the mail，Shanghai first half personal housing loan only an increase of 060 million yuan，By 18.8 billion yuan less year-on-year。

　　房地产业界人士均表示，个人房贷的走势和楼市成交量是有直接关联的，但根据银行的审批和放贷速度，房贷走势要滞后1个半月左右。

The real estate industry insiders are said，The trend of the individual mortgages and property market turnover is a direct correlation，But according to the bank of the approval and lending rate，Mortgage movements to lag 1 month and a half or so。

　　上半年上海商品住宅成交面积为384.26平方米，与去年同期相比仅上涨了2.89%。

Shanghai clinch a deal in the first half of the commodity residential house area is 384.26 square metre，Compared with the same period last year only 2.89% over the。

　　央行上海总部的数据显示，第2季度个人住房贷款有所回升，当季上海市新增本外币个人住房贷款11.1亿元，环比和同比分别多增21.6亿元和少增28.5亿元，其中6月份增加28.5亿元，环比和同比分别多增23.5亿元和7亿元。

The central bank of the headquarters of the Shanghai figures show，The second quarter personal housing loan bounced，Shanghai local when new personal housing loan 1.11 billion yuan，Annulus comparing and respectively compared to the $2.16 billion increase add less 2.85 billion yuan，In June of up to $2.85 billion，Annulus comparing and respectively compared to add 2.35 billion yuan and 700 million yuan。

　　汉宇地产市场研究部经理付伟告诉记者，由于楼市成交量触底，房贷政策紧缩，1-4月份个人房贷增量都是负增长。不过5、6月份楼市成交量显著回升，大型商业银行又重启了首套房利率8.5折优惠，所以他相信接下来两个月个人房贷增量还会继续反弹。

Han yu real estate market research department manager FuWei told reporters，Due to the property market turnover hit bottom，Mortgage policy tightening，1-4 individual mortgages are in incremental negative growth。But five、June property market turnover bounced significantly，A large commercial bank and restart the first suite interest rates by 8.5 discount，So he believe in the next two months individual mortgages, incremental also will continue to rebound。

　　央行上海总部的数据显示，今年上半年，上海存款规模首次突破6万亿，贷款总量接近4万亿，信贷结构不断优化。其中贷款投向第三产业中房地产业的增加293.4亿元。据WIND资讯统计，截至2012年6月，上海房地产开发投资额1042亿元，同比增加12.7%。“这显示开发贷特别紧，但是从数据上看还是增加的，很不可思议。”中国房产信息集团研究中心总监薛建雄表示。

The central bank of the headquarters of the Shanghai figures show，In the first half of this year，Shanghai deposit scale the first time exceeded 6 trillion，Total loans is close to 4 trillion，The credit structure continuous optimization。With credits the third industry of real estate industry zhong to increase of 29.34 billion yuan。According to statistical information WIND，By June 2012，Shanghai real estate development investment of 104.2 billion yuan，Increased 12.7% year-on-year。“This shows that the development of special tight credit，But look from data or increase，amazing。”China real estate information group research center director XueJianXiong said。

　　付伟表示，一线城市房地产开发投资增速往年正常水平应该是20%-30%，12%是很低的。这说明房地产调控已经影响房企开工和投资。

FuWei said，A city investment in real estate development level should be normal growth in previous years is 20%-30%，12% is very low。It shows that the real estate regulation has affected room enterprises commencement and investment。

　　同策咨询研究中心总监张宏伟表示，上半年的两次降准两次降息，对楼市形成利好，一定程度上刺激了开发投资的回升，向正常回归。

Strategy consulting research center director with d said，The first half of the year two drop allowed two cuts，About the housing form positive news，To some extent to stimulate the development of investment back，Return to normal。

　　对于后市，付伟表示，从7月上半月的数据来看，一二手房成交量已有回落迹象。7、8月份会是一个调整或者缓冲期。如果近期没有新的政策干预，下半年的楼市成交量有可能创出年内新高。在这种情况下，房价继续调整但降幅收窄甚至出现反弹上涨的几率各占一半。

For market outlook，FuWei said，From July saw a revival of data to see，A secondhand the room has been dropped, the volume of signs。7、August is a adjustment or cushioning period。If does not have recent new policy intervention，In the second half of the property market turnover makes years may have hit a record high。In this case，House prices continue to drop adjustment but narrow even rebounded rising risk of the half。

　　薛建雄则直言下半年“量价齐升”。“不降息的话，只是少涨而已。涨是肯定的，只是涨10%还是15%的差别”。其实房价跟经济增长和城市人口增长保持同步是合理的。这轮的下跌只是2009年那轮上涨过快的调整修正而已。之后，房价仍会跟经济保持相应的上涨。下半年就会属于政策紧中偏松的状态，房价会有明显上涨。

XueJianXiong is the second half of the truth“JiSheng quantity and price of”。“Don't cut rates would，Just less up just。Going up is sure，Just as much as 10% or 15% difference”。In fact with economic growth and house prices to keep urban population growth is reasonable。This round of falling just 2009 rising excessively in the round of adjustment just。after，House prices will still keep the corresponding rise with the economy。The second half will belong to the policy of the state of partial loose tight，House prices will rise significantly。

　　张宏伟表示，在价格方面，由于“去投资化”的限购限贷政策尚未明显松动，因此，房价年内出现大幅反弹的可能性几乎没有，但是房价下跌的动力会逐步消失，未来房价有可能表现为降幅收窄，或微幅涨价。

D said，In the price，because“To invest in the”限购 limit of credit policy has not been obvious loose，so，House prices year period the possibility of rebound sharply almost there，But the power of falling house prices will gradually disappear，The future house prices have may appear by narrow，Or price of micro。

　　（证券市场周刊供稿）

（Securities market weekly contributors）