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向松祚:现在的楼市调控像拔河 不要一想稳增长就想到房地产--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-08

  

【《财经》(博客,微博)综合报道】 【《financial》(blog,Micro bo)Comprehensive report】

  据经济之声《央广财经评论》报道,国务院办公厅24日发出通知,决定从7月下旬开始,派出8个督查组赴16个省市,对房地产市场调控政策措施落实情况开展专项督查。这是近两个月来中央第十次释放楼市调控不动摇的信号。此次督查的地区包括北京市、天津市、河北省、辽宁省、吉林省、上海市、江苏省、浙江省、福建省等等。

According to the sound of economic《Wide central finance comments》report,The general office of the state council issued a notice to 24,,Decided to start from late July,A DuZhaZu sent 8 to 16 provinces and cities,On the real estate market regulation implement policies and measures to carry out special superintendent himself。This is nearly two months to the central ten time release property market regulation unwavering signal。The area includes the supervision of Beijing、tianjin、Hebei province、Liaoning province、Jilin province、Shanghai、Jiangsu province、Zhejiang province、Fujian province and so on。

  对此,《央广财经评论》,经济之声特约评论员、中国农业银行(601288,股吧)首席经济学家向松祚称,前一段时间不论是地方政府还是开发商,甚至也包括一些媒体,都在有意和无意的释放一些似乎房地产调控已经在松动的信号,第二在最近的成交量和某些楼盘的价格的走向来看,现在房地产价格确实也出现了一些松动的迹象,在非常严峻的调控下已经取得了一些明显的效果,但如果一旦放松,那么房地产调控效果可能会前功尽弃。

this,《Wide central finance comments》,The voice of the economy contracted commentators、Agricultural bank of China(601288,Shares it)Chief economist to loose elementary says,Some time ago both local government or developers,And even some of the media,In the release of not intentionally and to some real estate regulation has been in loose signal,The second in the volume of sales and some recent building dish prices to come to see,Now the real estate prices really also appeared a few signs of loose,In a very tough regulation has been some obvious effect,But if once relax,So the real estate control effect may upset the applecart。

  他说,从现在的情况来看,中央国务院对这个是有非常清醒的认识的,派出督查组首先是要检查政策的情况,同时还要去征求当地群众的意见,特别是低收入阶层的意见,还要检查保障房和廉租房建设的情况,这是向市场向经济体释放非常强烈的信号,就是中央坚持房地产调控的信心不会改变。

He said,From the current situation,Central to this is under the state council has a very clear understanding,Send DuZhaZu first is to check the policy,Also ask for local the opinions of the masses,Especially low-income opinion,Also check the construction of low-rent housing safeguard and room,This is to release to the market economy very strong signal,Is the central to the confidence of the real estate regulation will not change。

  向松祚介绍称,现在的市场就像拔河比赛一样的,拔河比赛一边是某些地方政府某些开发商包括某些媒体,包括参与投资投机性房产的这些投资人士,他们希望政策松动,甚至有些人还在放出话说房地产的春天又要来了,房地产甚至会出现报复性的反弹,甚至下半年从三季度开始地价、房价都要大规模的攀升。另一方面是中央政府和一些希望房地产继续回稳,继续回到合理水平的普通的老百姓低收入阶层没有买房的人,现在这个拔河比赛,确确实实从二季度特别是4、5月份看出来,有一点点向宽松的地方在倾斜,包括深圳、杭州、上海甚至北京、天津某些地方的楼盘确实出现了成交量比较大幅度的上升,价格同比环比都有所上升的情况。

Elementary to loose introduced says,Now the market is like tug-of-war game,A tug of war competition is the side of some local government some developers including certain media,Including involved in the investment real estate of these investments personage speculative,They hope to loose policy,And even some who are released in the spring of real estate and words,Real estate can appear even vindictive rebound,Even from three quarters of the second half began to land prices、House prices are to the scale of the climb。On the other hand is the central government and some hope to continue rose in real estate,Continue to back to a reasonable level of ordinary citizens low-income people not to buy a house,Now the tug of war,From the second quarter, especially true 4、May see,Have a little to loose place in tilt,Including shenzhen、hangzhou、Shanghai even Beijing、Some parts of the tianjin buildings do have a large volume of comparison rise,Year-on-year annulus comparing rose in price。

  他认为,那种认为没有房地产的放松,中国经济就要完蛋的说法是非常错误的,如果一个国家的经济是依赖于房地产的投机炒作,完全或者主要依赖房地产的投资,那这个调控的方向肯定是错的,而且也无法实现中央所确定的调结构保民生的根本性的目的。实际上我们需要财政刺激,我们需要投资拉动经济增长,但是这个投资我们有很多方向可以去投,比如教育、医疗、新兴产业,中西部城市的基础设施,甚至包括像北京、上海这样的最发达城市的基础设施还需要极大程度的改善。这次北京的暴雨让我们看到,全国首都最主要的地方都出现这么严重的洪水灾害,表明我们的基础设施即使在北京这样的城市,还需要大幅度的改进。

He thinks,The thought that no real estate of relaxation,China's economy is the statement is very wrong,If a country's economy is dependent on real estate speculating,Completely or mainly depends on real estate investment,That the direction of this regulation must be wrong,And also can't achieve the central determined in the structure of the fundamental purpose of people's livelihood。In fact we need a fiscal stimulus,We need to investment drive economic growth,But the investment we have many direction can vote for,Such as education、medical、Emerging industry,The city's infrastructure,Even as Beijing、Shanghai is the most developed city of such infrastructure also need to great degree of improvement。The Beijing of heavy rain let us see,The national capital, the main places so serious flood disasters,Show that our infrastructure even in Beijing this city,Still need to greatly improved。

  向松祚表示,所以为什么一想到要刺激经济,一推动稳增长就马上就想到房地产,想到刺激房地产的投机和投资呢?这种思维方式是需要改变的,中央派出的督查组跟地方政府也好、跟企业人士也好释放出一个强烈的信号,就是不能因为稳增长就把前面的这种抑制房地产投资投机的政策前功尽弃,又让它回到再搞房地产的泡沫,让增长的速度上去,但是给经济留下更加潜在巨大的困难,这种思维方式是需要根本改变的。我们刺激经济,鼓励投资其实有很多很多的方向,而不要仅仅的依靠这种所谓房地产来拉动宏观经济的增长。

Elementary to pine said,So why the thought of to stimulate the economy,To promote a steady growth will immediately thought of real estate,Think of stimulation of the real estate speculation and investment?This way of thinking is needed to change,The central DuZhaZu sent with local government or、People with enterprise or release a strong signal,Is not steady growth because the front this inhibition of real estate investment speculative policy been wasted,And get it back to do of the real estate bubble,Let the growth speed up,But to leave the economy more potential great difficulty,This way of thinking is the need to have fundamental change。We stimulate the economy,Encourage investment in fact many of the direction,And don't just depend on the so-called real estate to drive the macro economic growth。



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