长江商报消息 Yangtze river commercial daily news

　　2012，本就代表着诸多不确定性。

2012，This represents many uncertainties。

　　楼市今年怎么走？各说纷纭。

How to get market this year？Right.every each。

　　今年3月份开始全国主要城市成交量逐步回暖，长期的量变会不会导致价格反弹？

In march this year began to major cities in China, the volume of gradually thaw，Long-term quantitative change will lead to price rebound？

　　调控没有放松迹象，调控的临界点在何时？

Don't relax regulation signs，The point of control when？

　　“兴建保障房”对楼市的长期影响是什么？

“Building security room”The long-term impact of property market is??????？

　　在昨日的“思想互动空间：2012年的中国楼市”论坛上，开发企业代表展开激烈辩论，虽然观点迥异，但有一点是一致的：他们均看好未来房地产走势。

In yesterday's“Thought interactive space：2012 years of Chinese market”BBS on，Development enterprise represents the debate，Although different views，But having a bit is consistent：They are bullish on the future trend of real estate。

　　对话嘉宾：

Dialogue guests：

　　朱昌宁 苏州广大投资集团董事长

ZhuChangNing suzhou the vast investment group chairman

　　陈海淳 武汉当代物业公司总经理

ChenHaiChun wuhan contemporary property company general manager

　　陈志华 复地集团副总裁

ChenZhiHua complex to group vice President

　　赵汉忠星浩资本CEO

ZhaoHanZhong star hao capital CEO

　　不少人认为，开发商是高房价的推手，朱昌宁对这种看法有些不服气，觉得太过于主观和片面。“作为房产商来说，非常希望房地产行业资金配套、政策层面都能稳定，从而实现平均利润率稳健增长。”

Many people think，Developers is the crucible of high prices，ZhuChangNing to that view some defy spirit，Think too subjective and one-sided。“As for developers，Hope very much that real estate funds supporting、Policy level can be stable，So as to realize the average profit margin steady growth。”

　　房地产有自己的市场发展规律，他认为房地产作为国民经济重要组成部分，政府的过多强势干预会打乱其发展规律，希望政府多尊重市场的选择。

Real estate has its own market law of development，He thinks that real estate as an important part of the national economy，The government's strong intervention will upset too much the law of development，Hope the government more respect for the choice of the market。

　　虽然在苏州、上海等地均有项目，但从业多年的他仍然认为大多数房地产公司的操作比较粗糙，特别是跟制造业、金融、保险比很粗糙，但从2000年开始房地产行业得到很大发展，说明房产空间很大。他建议房地产精细化管理，摆脱找一笔钱、拍一块地的粗糙方式。

Although in suzhou、Shanghai to all have project，But the industry for many years he still thought most real estate company's operation is rough，Especially with the manufacturing industry、financial、Insurance than rough，But since 2000 the real estate industry has achieved great development，That big space to house property。He suggested that real estate fine management，Get rid of looking for a sum of money、Take a piece of the rough way。

　　朱昌宁：希望政府尊重房产行业规律

ZhuChangNing：Hope the government respect property industry rules

　　“楼市回暖是肯定的。经过利率调整，未来市场也是看好的，只是在限购的前提下，短期房价大幅度的变化不太现实，政策也不允许。”陈海淳毫不避讳地指出楼市成交回暖。

“Property market warms up is certain。After interest rate adjustment，The future market also is promising，Just in the premise of 限购，The change of the large short-term house prices is not very practical，Policies are not allowed。”ChenHaiChun no secret points out that the property market clinch a deal the thaw。

　　陈海淳说，今年春节过后，他明显感觉到暖意，比成交量更鼓舞人的是大家的“预期”回暖。

ChenHaiChun said，After the Spring Festival this year，He feel warm meaning，More than volume encouraging is everybody“expected”warmed。

　　有领导人曾引用国际上经济学家的预言，“中国的城镇化和美国的高科技是21世纪带动世界经济发展的两大引擎。”长期看好房地产是没有问题的。“短期房价有巨大变化不太可能。”陈海淳说。

Have leaders have quoted international economists prophecy，“China's urbanization and American high-tech is the 21 st century drive the development of the world economy two engines。”Long-term real estate is no problem。“Short-term prices have great change is unlikely。”ChenHaiChun said。

　　从2008年开始房地产政策一年一变，陈海淳称政府只是头疼医头，脚疼医脚。虽然政府多次强调调控不放松，但今年以来连续两次的降息，有些救市的意味。

From 2008 to a year a real estate policy change，ChenHaiChun said the government just headache medical head，unrest。Although the government has repeatedly stressed the regulation does not relax，But since this year two successive rate cut，Some help city imply。

　　相比于限购政策，陈海淳认为最主要是要解决现有的土地供给制度，“土地这么大的问题，没有进行很深刻的改革，如果集体土地能流通的话，我相信中国经济还能保持20年的快速发展。”作为开发企业，陈海淳希望政策更为稳定。

When compared to the 限购 policy，ChenHaiChun think the most is mainly to solve the existing land supply system，“The problem of land so big，Not very profound reform，If the collective land can circulation words，I believe that China's economy will be able to maintain the rapid development of 20 years。”As the development enterprise，ChenHaiChun hope policy is more stable。

　　陈海淳：楼市政策不能头疼医头、脚疼医脚

ChenHaiChun：Housing policy cannot have a headache medical head、unrest

　　很多开发商抱怨中央出台限购令打乱房地产市场发展规律。但复地集团副总裁陈志华表示，很理解中央的限购政策，它是用一种行政手段抑制了房地产短时期的快速发展。但他希望政府能更高明一点，在抑制房地产快速发展的同时，能够出台一些配套的完善的政策，让其他实体经济的产业发展起来。

Many developers complain that the central 限购 issued to disturb the real estate market law of development。But after the vice President ChenZhiHua to group said，Very understanding of the central 限购 policy，It is to use a administrative means to suppress the short time period of the rapid development of the real estate。But he want the government to a higher point out，Reining in real estate development at the same time，To work out some of the form a complete set of perfect policy，Let other entity economy industry developed。

　　毕竟，房地产业不可能在中国经济里独善其身。

After all，The real estate industry can't be in China's economy in the world。

　　陈志华建议国家财政体制做一个新的挑战，把大量的税收还一部分给地方。否则实体经济是发展不上来的。

ChenZhiHua suggest national finance system of a new challenge，A large number of tax is part of where to。Otherwise the entity economy development is not up。

　　对于现在各地正在兴建的保障房，陈志华也表达了自己的担忧：在中心城区已经没有地方去建保障房了，很多的需要保障的人员都要住到很远的郊区，而城市里面社会化服务需要这些人来做，为了工作他们可能会放弃保障房，就出现了很多保障房建了没人住。“如果在中央政府的推动下能解决这个问题，在有钱人住的房子和没钱人住的保障房距离不远，这对整个社会的就业来说还是很有利的，这是我们关注民生，整个社会和谐最关键的地方。”

For now is being built around the security room，ChenZhiHua also expressed his concerns：In the city centre has no place to build security room，A lot of need security personnel are to live far into the suburbs，In the city and socialized service need these people to do，In order to work they might give up security room，Appeared a lot of guarantee the fittest is vacant。“If in the push of the central government can solve this problem，In a rich live house and did not have money to people living guarantee room not far distance，This on the whole social employment is still very favorable，This is our concern the livelihood of the people，The whole social harmonious most the place of key。”

　　陈志华：理解中央出台限购令 希望出台配套政策

ChenZhiHua：Understand the central issued 限购 make hope on matching policy

　　赵汉忠：房地产仍是最好的投资

ZhaoHanZhong：Real estate is still the best investment

　　房地产现状再不好，也没有比它更好的投资渠道。赵汉忠直接指出了投资者青睐房地产的原因，他认为中国现在的住宅市场比起其他投资方式，地段较好的物业抗风险能力通常更强。

Real estate situation is bad again，Nothing is better investment channels。ZhaoHanZhong direct points out the cause of the real estate investors，He think that China's present residence market compared to other investment，Section good property ability to resist risks are usually more strong。

　　目前武汉土地拍卖商，不少外行企业开始拿地，赵汉忠说，这些企业判断土地市场已经探底，到了最佳入行时机。但就他自己来说，他觉得现在房地产行业竞争已经足够充分，要都涌到房地产行业，可能会产生资源过度。这对国家长期的发展和后续支撑也是不好的、不健康的，“竞争过度就会死掉一批，还是建议多发展实体经济。”

At present the wuhan land auctioneer，Many companies began to take dilettante，ZhaoHanZhong said，The enterprise judgment has been the land market exploration，The best time to do。But for his part，He felt the real estate industry has enough competition now fully，To all repaired to the real estate industry，May produce resources excessive。The national long-term development and subsequent support is not good、unhealthy，“Excessive competition will die a batch，Or suggestion entity economy development。”

　　赵汉忠说，这也说明现在整个投资环境的无奈，创业的环境、民企成长空间、企业家社会地位都有待改善。

ZhaoHanZhong said，This means that the current investment environment of the helpless，Poineering environment、Corporation growth space、Entrepreneurs social status are expected to be improved。

　　“就算房地产现在不好，投什么东西好呢？投金融好吗？股市怎么样？”赵汉忠说，这些风险更大，虽然住宅市场限购，但大量的商用物业和城市综合体的抗风险能力比股票、金融强多了。

“Even if real estate now is bad，For what good？Cast financial?？How the stock market？”ZhaoHanZhong said，The more risk，Although the housing market 限购，But a lot of commercial property and urban complex ability to resist risks than stocks、Financial much stronger。

　　本报记者 田立平

Our correspondent TianLiPing