中国经济减速，是以往肆意制造房地产泡沫以掩盖政府低效率的结果。因此，减息解决不了当前的问题，反而有可能导致投机活动再度猖獗

China's economic slowdown，Before the real estate bubble is wanton manufacturing to cover up the low efficiency of government results。so，Interest rates can not solve the current problems，It can lead to speculation was rampant again

　　近日，中国央行一个月内两次降息，昭示了政府对于目前经济疲软形势的严重关切。但这其实是开错了药方。可能造成的副作用、包括加剧通胀、给轻信政府的房地产投机者增加负债、削弱银行对于潜在坏账危机的抵抗能力等等。人民币也可能面临贬值压力。

recently，China's central bank twice a month to cut interest rates，Indicates the government for the present economic weakness situation of serious concern。But it is the wrong prescription。May cause side effects、Include increasing inflationary、To believe the real estate speculators to increase government debt、The potential bad debt crisis weakened resistance and so on。The yuan may also downward pressure。

　　靠过量发行货币支持房地产泡沫发酵，本来就是个错误；现在降息，可以说是一错再错。要重振中国经济，政府应该做的是减税、削减政府支出、限制国企垄断、加强法制建设、鼓励公司企业专心改善产品质量，提升技术水平和品牌知名度。

By excessive issue currency support real estate bubble ferment，It is a mistake；Now cut interest rates，Can say is a wrong again wrong。To revive China's economy，The government should do is the tax cuts、Cutting government spending、Limit monopoly state-owned enterprises、To strengthen the construction of legal system、To encourage companies to enterprise to improve the quality of products，Enhance the technical level and brand awareness。

　　当前经济局势非常严峻。很多地方政府都入不敷出，在建房地产项目停工现象普遍，半停工状态的工厂随处可见，最近六个月，钢铁和煤炭价格也下跌了五分之一。地方政府压榨公司企业，甚至要求预缴税金，以便完成财政收入目标。

The current economic situation is very severe。Many local governments make ends meet，Real estate project under construction shutdown phenomenon common，Half of the factory shutdown state can be seen everywhere，Recent six months，Steel and coal prices also fell by one 5。The local government squeezing company enterprise，Even demand prepay taxes，To achieve fiscal revenue target。

　　眼前的经济下行趋势，完全是国内因素造成的。中国出口还是在增长，只是增速下降了一半而已。最易受到全球金融危机影响的外国直接投资数据，今年前五个月也只是下降了1.9%，平均每月还是达到了94亿美元。把目前中国经济的下行趋势归咎于国际环境，是一种误导。

The eyes of the economic downside trend，Completely is domestic factors。China's export or in growth，Just growth falling by half just。The most vulnerable to global financial crisis affect foreign direct investment data，The first five months of this year is down 1.9%，Average monthly or reached $9.4 billion。The downward trend of China's current economic blame on international environment，Is misleading。

　　主要原因就是以房地产为主的投机泡沫破裂。卷入泡沫的远不止是商业银行。设备和材料供应商和建筑承包商，摇身一变全都成了地方政府和房地产开发商的融资渠道。信托投资公司更是增发了数以万亿计的贷款，用于满足房地产开发商和地方政府的需求。在投机曲线的背后，存在一个巨大的地下高利贷产业链，而时至今日，泡沫已经全方位破裂。

Is the main reason, mainly in the real estate bubbles burst。Involved in the bubble far more than just a commercial bank。Equipment and material supplier and the contractor，Suddenly change one's identity have all become local government and real estate developers financing channel。Trust and investment company is more shares by the hundreds of thousands of millions of trillions of loans，To meet the real estate developers and local governments demand。Behind the curve in speculation，There is a huge underground usury industrial chain，And today，All bubble has burst。

　　私人股权基金最近刚刚变成了一个大泡泡。由于资产投资过剩，生产资料成本畸高，实体经济资本回报率一直很低。经营实体经济的企业为了维持生存，也不得不直接或间接参与房地产投机。

Private equity fund recently became a big bubbles。Because of excess capital investment，Production material excessively high cost，The entity economy return on capital has been very low。Business entity economy enterprise in order to survive，Also had to directly or indirectly involved in real estate speculation。

　　但是这一整条金融产业链，根本上还是要依靠地价升值才能维持。实体经济不可能支撑规模如此巨大的金融投机产业。但是，目前中国的地权买卖市场已经崩溃。今年上半年，北京和上海土地销售收入下降了约60%，杭州和温州的数字则分别下降了72%和84%。

But the entire financial industry chain article，Ultimately depends on land price appreciation to keep on。The entity economy could not support of this magnitude financial speculation industry。but，The present China's land ownership trading market has collapsed。In the first half of this year，Beijing and Shanghai land sales income down about 60%，Hangzhou and wenzhou figures were decreased by 72% and 84% respectively。

　　根据国家统计局公布的数字，自2010年1月到今年五月，城市住宅竣工、在建住房总面积64亿平方米。就算全中国的房地产开发完全停止，这么大量的住房也已经足以容纳城市人口规模的峰值。预计在2020年前后，中国人口总规模就会出现下滑。

According to the national bureau of statistics，From January 2010 to may this year，City residential completion、Building housing a total area of 6.4 billion square meters。Even if all the Chinese real estate development to a full stop，So a lot of housing has enough to hold the peak value of the urban population scale。Before and after expected in 2020，China's population total dimensions will be declined。

　　要让房地产泡沫继续，中国需要每年增加40%的货币供应量。但如果真的采用这么大规模的货币扩张，就会导致本币大幅贬值。现在散布“泡沫时代重来”的消息，只能在头脑简单的投机者中间制造几轮“死猫跳”。

To make real estate bubble to continue，China needs the money supply to rise by 40% a year。But if really using such large-scale monetary expansion，Will lead to local currency depreciated。Now spread“Bubble days again”news，Only in the mind of the simple among speculators make several rounds“Dead cats jumped”。

　　减息可能会导致通胀加重，也会导致人们担心货币贬值，因而给商品涨价提供了动机。中国不能再蒙混过关，唯一的出路就是对政府机构进行改革。政府部门造成的浪费，正在摧毁整个经济体制。在出口快速增长的年代，过剩的流动性通过国有金融体系进行转移，足以利用制造泡沫的方式来掩盖官方机构的低效率。而现在，出口已经不再那样快速增长，原来潜藏的问题就暴露了出来。现在试图重启房地产泡沫，只会拖垮整个中国经济。

Interest rate cuts could lead to inflation worse，Can also lead to people worry about currency devaluation，So to provide the motivation commodity prices。China can't smooth，The only way out is to government agencies to reform。The waste generated government departments，Are destroyed whole economic system。In the age of exports rapid growth，The extra liquidity through transfer of state-owned financial system，Enough to use to make foam way to cover up the official organizations of low efficiency。And now，Export is no longer that fast growth，The original of the underlying problem is exposed。Now trying to restart the real estate bubble，Will only drag down whole China's economy。

　　（《环球企业家》系列专栏文章不代表《环球企业家》观点）

（《Global entrepreneurs》Series column does not represent《Global entrepreneurs》view）