【《财经》(博客,微博)综合报道】 【《financial》(blog,Micro bo)Comprehensive report】

　　8月8日，上海易居房地产研究院发布报告称，2012年7月，典型城市新建商品住宅存货压力持续减小，10大典型城市新建商品住宅库存总量为 5650万平方米，与去年同期相比增长 17.68%，与上月相比下降 1.20%。10 大典型城市新建商品住宅库存量连续3个月回落，但总体上要高2011 年和2010年同期水平。

August 8,，Shanghai real estate research institute in report to say，July 2012，Typical cities new commodity residential house continued pressure reducing inventory，10 big typical cities new commodity residential house total stock of 56.5 million square meters，Increased by 17.68% compared with the same period last year，Compared with last month dropped by 1.20%。10 big typical cities new commodity residential inventories for three months fell back，But in general to high in 2011 and 2010 in the same period level。

　　报告称，典型城市新建商品住宅月度供应量上涨，但速度减缓。7月份10大典型城市商品住宅供应量共计 640万平方米，与去年同期相比增长27%，与上月相比增长 4%。2012 年以来，10大城市新增住宅供应速度已放缓。这也是开发商与市场及政策不断平衡的结果。

The report says，Typical cities new commodity residential monthly supply rise，But slowed。July 10 big typical cities commodity residential house in supply of 6.4 million square meters，Increased by 27% compared with the same period last year，Compared with the increase of 4% last month。Since 2012，10 big cities new housing supply speed has slowed。This is also the developers and market and policy more balance results。

　　报告认为，典型城市新建商品住宅存销比将回落至“合理”区间 10大典型城市新建商品住宅存销比为 10.1，已出现了连续5 个月的回落。并且10大典型城市都出现了存销比回落的状态。按这一趋势，预计存销比将于未来2个月内（8-9月份）逐步回归至“合理”（6-9）区间。

Report says，Typical cities new commodity residential house than save sales will fall to“reasonable”10 big typical cities interval new commodity residential deposit pin ratio 10.1，Already appeared five consecutive months of fall back。And 10 big typical cities there are put down state than pin。According to the trend，Is expected to save more than in the future will sell in two months（8-September）Stepwise regression to“reasonable”（6-9）interval。

　　报告对存销比趋势作的判断是：未来 2 个月将回归至合理区间。2012 年7月份，10大典型城市新建商品住宅成交量相比6月份略有下滑，但相对历史水平而言，仍处于一个高位。下半年，虽然存在政策加码的可能性，但成交依然维持一定的活跃度，甚至有可能在四季度再创月度新高。与此同时，下半年商品住宅新增供应量难以有效放大。预计仍将基本维持月度新增供应小于成交状况。

Report to save pin judgment is better than trends：The next two months will return to a reasonable interval。In July, 2012，10 big typical cities new commodity residential house than volume in June slipped a bit，But relative historical level，Still in a high。The second half，Though there are policy the possibility of pyramid，But still keep clinch a deal active degrees，Even in the fourth quarter may have hit another record high monthly。At the same time，The second half of the commodity residential house new supply can not effectively amplification。Still expected to maintain the new supply basic monthly in less than clinch a deal。

　　报告认为，在这一形势下，未来几个月，10个典型城市的商品住宅存量还将继续回落。与之相适应，商品住宅存销比还将继续回落，预期将在未来 2 个月内(8-9 月份)，回落至合理区间。而存货压力的减小和存销比的快速回落，使房价反弹的压力趋于增加。6月份，全国70 个大中城市房价环比已经在连跌 8个月后首次反弹，预计 7月还将继续上涨。房地产调控形势趋于严峻，新的调控措施预计不久就会推出，以抑制房价上涨。但即便是出台新的政策，也只能在几个月内抑制房价,效果不能奢望。

Report says，In this situation，The next few months，10 typical cities to the commodity residential house stock will continue to fall back。With suitable，Commodity residential house than save pin will continue to fall back，Expected in the next two months(8-September)，Fall to reasonable interval。And the decrease of the inventory pressure and store sales ratio fell back quickly，That house prices rebound tend to increase the pressure。June，The national 70 large and medium-sized cities in house prices has been shut down in November 8 months after first bounce，Starting on July will also continue to rise。Real estate regulation tends to serious situation，The new measures will be launched is expected soon，To curb rising house prices。But even if is introduce new policy，Also can prevent housing price in a few months,Effect can't expect to。