国泰君安8月8日发布房地产行业研报。上周房地产板块出现恐慌性下跌，市场在房价上涨的压力下调高了政策加码的预期。但综合考虑经济的低迷程度以及行业的供求状况，研报认为房价和政策在未来6个月基本会维持稳定，市场超调创造了买入良机。

Cathay Pacific hand released on August 8, the real estate industry research report。The real estate sector fell last week in panic，The market in the pressure of the rising house prices down the policy of the pyramid high expectations。But considering the sluggish economy, as well as industry supply and demand，For house prices and policy research that within the next six months basic will remain stable，Markets overshoot created good buying opportunity。

　　国泰君安认为，在经济下行趋势下出台颠覆性严控政策的可能性小，目前宏观经济景气、政府财政、地产量价表现等关键指标与政策加码的2010、2011年有天壤之别：1、预售取消谣言住建部已辟谣，对开发商资金链的控制将持续；2、督察组已调研六七个城市，整体看结果还比较满意，督查后预判地产政策总体基调将维持稳定，紧紧螺丝不加码；3、税收政策是长远性制度安排，不是短期内可以解决，预计延续试点为主。

Cathay Pacific hand to think，In the economic trend downward on the possibility of disruptive tight control policy small，At present the macro economic boom、Government financial、To yield performance index and the price key policy stir 2010、In 2011, big difference：1、Live JianBu has cancelled opens to booking rumor rumor，The developers of the capital chain control will last；2、DuChaZu already research dozen city，Overall look at the results are satisfactory，After protecting anticipation real estate policy will remain stable overall fundamental key，Tightly screw don't beat；3、Tax policy is a long-term system arrangement，Not can be solved in the short term，The pilot is expected to continue to give priority to。

　　国泰君安预计未来中央和地方政府将在限价政策、房价问责、提高开发贷款和房地产信托门槛等方面加强，目标是控制房价、保大限小、稳定供给。具体来说，可能有如下几方面：第一，加大对开发商资金链的控制，包括预售款监管或可能部分冻结等；第二，启动地方房价问责制，高端楼盘获得预售证难度加大，降低统计上房价上涨的结构性因素；第三，延续直接的临时性喊话，扭转涨价预期；第四，重新祭出限价政策，中小地产商资金链普遍偏紧等。

Cathay Pacific airways is expected to hand to the future of the central and local governments will be in price policy、House prices accountability、Increase development loans and real estate trusts that strengthening the threshold，Goal is to control prices、Time is the small、Stable supply。Specific for，There may be the following aspects：The first，To increase the developers of the capital chain control，Including opens to booking a paragraph may be partially or frozen supervision；The second，House prices start place accountability system，High-end building dish to open to booking card for increased difficulties，Reduce the statistics on the structural factors rising housing prices；The third，Continue direct temporary propaganda，Reverse prices expected；The fourth，To offer a price policy，Small and medium-sized developers capital chain slant generally tight, etc。

　　在短期的量价走势判断方面，国泰君安预判销量将持续上行，价格在9、10月上涨压力回落。首先，需求政策不再加码购房者情绪能持续恢复，刚需、改善持续入市，事实上需求政策加码空间小；其次，二手房卖盘指数、销售人员情绪指数等先行指标显示至少到10月销量都会持续走强；最后，历史新开工数据和历来开发商推盘管理显示从10月左右市场新推盘量庞大，结合现阶段维持高位的库存，10月开始去化将下降。现阶段的调控政策思路为增供给、压投机、保刚需，落实到开发贷供应上就是保大限小，对短时间内能够提供刚需供给的大开发商给予优惠信贷支持，而这种有保有压的开发贷供应思路将凸显龙头开发商资金优势。

In the short-term price volume trends in judgment，Cathay Pacific hand sales will continue to uplink anticipation，Price in 9、October upward pressure fall back。first，Demand policy is no longer beat the person that buy a house can renew mood，Just need to、Improve last entry，In fact needs policy space is little pyramid；second，Secondhand the room sell dish index、Sales staff in advance on mood index indicators suggest that at least until October sales will be continued to be strong；finally，Start a new historical data and has always been developers push dish management from 10 months that market new push dish large quantity，Combined with the present maintain high inventory，October to begin to change will decline。The current stage of the control policy ideas to increase supply、Press speculation、Protect just need to，Implement development loans to supply the deadline is small，For a short time just need to supply can provide the big developers give preferential credit support，And this is the development of the supply of credit keep pressure ideas will highlight leading developers capital advantage。

　　地产板块在恐慌性下跌后估值优势凸显，在销量持续上行的背景下国泰君安建议投资者应该摒弃不实传言，重视行业主流趋势和现阶段主要矛盾的变化动向。维持1月提出的主流地产公司全年50%以上绝对收益预判不变。目前2012年的PE为8.5倍、重估净资产（RNAV）折32%左右，切换到2013年仅7倍PE。投资者可以一二线龙头为核心配置，金地集团(600383,股吧)、保利地产(600048,股吧)、中南建设(000961,股吧)、万科、首开股份(600376,股吧)、荣盛发展(002146,股吧)、招商地产(000024,股吧)、华侨城的大幅回调，则是低配者的买入良机。

Real estate sector in panic after falling valuations advantage prominent，In sales continue under the background of upward to recommend that investors should abandon the hand to cathay Pacific airways false rumors，Pay attention to the mainstream industry trends and the present stage mainly contradictory change trend。Maintain January the mainstream of the real estate company proposed annual 50% above absolute revenue anticipation unchanged。Currently 2012 PE for 8.5 times、Revalued the net assets（RNAV）Discount 32%，Switch to 2013 years just seven times PE。Investors can a second line leading to the core configuration，Ltd.gemdale corporation(600383,Shares it)、Poly real estate(600048,Shares it)、Zhongnan construction(000961,Shares it)、vanke、First open shares(600376,Shares it)、Rongsheng development(002146,Shares it)、Investment real estate(000024,Shares it)、The star back sharply，Is low with those good buying opportunity。

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