本轮调控两年多来，在史上最严调控政策作用下，在近2000万套保障房的建设大潮冲击下，各地投机、投资受到了抑制，各地过热的楼市得到了一定程度的降温。去年下半年开始，各地成交也一度陷入低迷状态，各地房价出现了不同程度的下跌。于是乎，很多媒体自去年年底开始为调控唱起赞歌来，说什么房地产调控已经取得成效，接下来的主要工作应该是巩固房地产调控成果。

This regulation for more than two years，In history the most strict regulation under the action of policy，In nearly 20 million sets of security housing construction tide impact，Speculation around、The investment is reduced，All of the property market overheating has been a certain degree of cooling。The second half of last year began，Clinch a deal around also once the downturn in state，All prices appeared different degree of down。As a result，A lot of media since the end of last year began to sing song of praise to control，Say what real estate regulation have already obtained results，The next major work should be consolidated real estate regulation results。

　　可从市场表现来看，进入2012年的房地产市场却出现了令人意想不到的局面。年初时，楼市还是“春寒料峭”，各地成交低迷，市场降价促销普遍。接下来，在30多个城市微调调控政策的触动下，在央行两度降息的刺激下，全国各地的房地产市场自5月份开始不断升温，许多城市成交量和价格也都创出了调控以来的新高。

See from market performance，In the 2012 years of the real estate market but there was an unexpected situation。Earlier this year，Housing or“The chill of”，Clinch a deal around the downturn，The market generally depreciate sales promotion。The next，In more than 30 cities vernier adjustment and control policies under the touch，In the central bank twice cut interest rates under the stimulus，All parts of the country's real estate market since started in May increase，Many cities volume and price are making record high since the regulation。

　　在这样的市场态势下，在“市场回暖、房价反弹”的声音纷纷见诸媒体的情况下，相关部门开始警觉起来，在短短两个月时间内，国家相关部委的9次传出坚决不放松房地产调控的信号，温总理甚至发出“必须坚定不移做好调控工作，把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策”的最强音。

In such a market under the situation，in“Market thaw、House prices rebound”The voice of the mass media in the case，Related departments began to alert，In just two months time，The relevant state ministries and commissions of the nine efferent resolute don't relax real estate control signal，Premier wen jiabao and even issued“Must unswervingly well control work，To curb the real estate speculation investment demand as a long-term policy”Strongest note of。

　　可这样的信号，对于博弈正处在紧要关头的房地产市场而言，其影响是微乎其微的。具体表现在：

Can such a signal，For the game is in critical in terms of the real estate market，Its influence is negligible。Specific performance in：

　　一是这些信号给民众带来的错觉是房地产调控目标已经退而求其次。本轮调控之初，中央提出的目标是“遏制房价过快上涨”，并为此目标做出了诸多努力。此后，在房地产所引发的矛盾日益激化，房价居高不下的状况下，中央提出“促进房价合理回归”，在这样的目标指引下，各地房价开始出现不同程度下跌。近来，在各地楼市出现回暖迹象，市场出现量价齐升，民众普遍担忧房价反弹的态势下，温总理做出“促进房价合理回归，绝不让房价反弹”的表述。总理说此番话的本意是希望消除民众对于房价反弹的忧虑，可相关部委却将总理“绝不让房价反弹”表述错误的理解为现阶段的房地产调控目标，这从近期相关部委官员言必称“绝不让房价反弹”可见一斑。

One is the signal to bring people the illusion is real estate regulation goal has been settle for second best。At the beginning of this regulation，The central targets is“Curb prices rising too fast”，And for this goal made many efforts。Since then，In real estate which caused by the growing discontent contradiction，Under the condition of high prices，The central proposed“Promote the prices reasonable regression”，In such a goal guidance，All prices began to appear different degree down。recently，In every market appear warmer signs，The market appears JiSheng volume and price，People are worried about the house prices rebound under the situation，Premier wen jiabao made“Promote the prices reasonable regression，Never let house prices rebound”statement。The prime minister said the words of original meaning is to eliminate people for house prices rebound worries，Can be related ministries and commissions but prime minister“Never let house prices rebound”Express the wrong understanding to the current stage of the real estate control target，From the recent related ministries and commissions officials say“Never let house prices rebound”Immigrants are。

　　二是这些信号没有能够改变民众担心房价反弹的心理预期，从而导致各地成交大幅攀升，楼市大有回暖之势。7月上半月北京住宅网签总量约为13433套，与6月份同期的成交量相比上涨约27%，与去年7月上半月同期的成交量相比则大幅上涨了约56.3%；7月上半月上海新建商品住宅成交43.9万平方米，较6月份同期提升7.6%。其中，上周全市新建商品住宅成交合计成交1766套、21.1万平方米，环比分别提升9.42%、5.53%。

The second is the signal not can change people worry that house prices rebound psychological expectations，Leading to clinch a deal around sharply，The property market is warmed the potential。July first half Beijing residential net sign about 13433 sets of the total amount，With the same period in June the turnover compared with increase of about 27%，With the same period last July first half of the amount is compared to a substantial increase of about 56.3%；July first half Shanghai new commodity housing clinch a deal of 439000 square meters，A June over the same period increased by 7.6%。the，Last week the new commodity housing clinch a deal the aggregate clinch a deal 1766 sets、211000 square meters，Link respectively increased by 9.42%、5.53%。

　　三是这些信号没能减低地方政府的土地财政依赖心理。7月10日，经历了10次网上报价、46轮现场竞价以及300多轮配建回购房面积竞争，被称为“准地王”的海淀万柳地块拍卖落下帷幕，民企中赫置地以26.3亿元的最高上限价格、配建16400平方米回购房的条件力压群雄，这一价格折合楼面价约4.42万元/平方米，刷新了北京单价地王的纪录。总理“绝不让房价反弹”言犹在耳，北京新地王诞生！这实在是极具讽刺意义的一幕！

3 it is these signals can't reduce the local government land financial dependent psychology。On July 10,，Experienced 10 times quotes online、46 wheel field bidding and 300 rounds the competition PeiJian back to the area，called“Quasi left”The haidian wanliu block auction to drop the curtain，Corporation of Hector real estate with 2.63 billion yuan price limit、PeiJian 16400 square meters back to purchase conditions force a pressure，This price reduced floor price 44200 yuan/square meters，Refresh the Beijing star of the unit price of the record。Prime minister“Never let house prices rebound”Words spoken not long ago，Beijing star of the new born！It is ironically scene！

　　四是这些信号没能减少地方政府救市冲动。19日，住建部、国土部联合发出《关于进一步严格房地产用地管理巩固房地产市场调控成果的紧急通知》，通知强调各地要严格执行房地产市场调控政策，不得擅自调整放松要求，已放松的，要立即纠正。

The fourth is the signal no can reduce the local government to save the city impulse。19，Live JianBu、Land department jointly issued《On further strict real estate land management consolidate the real estate market regulation results emergency notice》，Notice all emphasize to strictly carry out the real estate market regulation and control policy，Shall not without authorization adjustment relax requirements，Already relaxed，Should immediately correct。

　　可就在紧急通知发出仅仅4天，南京公然松绑限购：23日下午，南京市政府召开新闻发布会，发布《市政府关于进一步扩大内需拉动消费的若干意见》，意见明确，积极支持人才住房消费，入选“321”计划的人才，政策缴纳公积金的可优先享受公积金贷款；首次购买自住商品房住房，视同南京户籍，并可按五年内个人所得税市以下留成部分，给予购房补贴。

Can be in emergency notice only four days，Nanjing openly restricted relax：23 afternoon，Nanjing municipal government held a press conference，release《The municipal government on further expanding domestic demand consumption certain opinions》，Opinion clear，Actively support personnel housing consumption，selected“321”Plan talent，Policy pay accumulation fund can enjoy priority provident fund loans；For the first time to buy commercial houses from housing，Nanjing census register shall be regarded as，And according to five years of individual income tax under the city retained portion，Purchase subsidies to。

　　综上，仅靠高层及相关部委向市场传出“坚决不放松房地产调控”信号远远不能令房地产调控显效，房地产所引发的矛盾难以得到有效缓解。笔者以为，中国急需启动新一轮房地产调控。理由如下：

In conclusion，Only on top and related ministries and commissions to market spread“Resolute don't relax real estate regulation”Signal far can't make real estate regulation powerfully，Real estate which caused by the contradiction is difficult to be effectively ease。The author thought，China urgently needs to start a new round of real estate regulation。For the following reasons：

　　首先，启动新一轮房地产调控是稳增长的需要。今年一季度，我国经济增长超预期下滑。G D P同比增长8.1%，较去年四季度显著放缓0.8个百分点，连续5个季度回落。但是，考虑到闰年的因素，一季度G D P实际已跌破8%，经济形势严峻。在这样的态势下，中央于4月份提出把稳增长放在更加重要的位置。5月23日，国务院部署了11条稳增长的措施，其中包括扩大内需、促进消费，鼓励民间投资、支持小微企业创业兴业等政策。

First of all，To launch a new round of real estate regulation is steady growth needs。In the first quarter of this year，China's economic growth decline than expected。G D P year-on-year growth of 8.1%，A fourth quarter slows significantly last year 0.8%，Continuous five quarter back。but，Considering the leap year factors，Quarter G D P has actually fell below 8%，Economic situation serious。In such a situation next，In April the central proposed holding fast growth in a more important position。On May 23,，Article 11 the state council deployment steady growth measures，Including to expand domestic demand、Promote consumption，Encourage private investment in the、Support small micro enterprise venture industrial policies。

　　毫无疑问，这些政策对于稳增长将起一定的作用。可从实践来看，只要房地产市场热度不减，只要房价没有出现大幅下跌，中央出台的所有稳增长措施将会逐步直接或间接地转化为刺激楼市。因为，无论是降低存款储备金还是降息，都会让很多民间资本以及制造业的资金流向房地产，从而进一步吹大房地产泡沫。

There is no doubt that，These policies for steady growth will play a role。Can see from practice，As long as the real estate market heat immortalization，As long as there is no house prices fell sharply，The central on the introduction of the all steady growth measures will gradually directly or indirectly converted to stimulate the property market。because，Both reduce the deposit reserve rate cut or，Can make a lot of folk capital and manufacturing capital flows to the real estate，Thus further blow the big real estate bubble。

　　故此，唯有启动新一轮房地产调控，通过打击投机、抑制投资、引导需求等政策促进房价下跌，才能将更多的资金从房地产市场释放出来，投向国民经济真正需要且真正能够扩大内需、增加投资的领域。

therefore，Only to launch a new round of real estate regulation，Through striking speculation、Inhibition investment、Guide and promote demand policy falling house prices，To put more money from the real estate market released，To the national economy and real really need to expand domestic demand、Increase investment field。

　　其次，启动新一轮房地产调控是惠民生的需要。近年来，各级政府都经常提及“惠民生”，也不断出台相关政策以图惠及民生。可也有的地方政府却以惠民生之名，行谋求既得利益之实，比如30多个城市微调中央调控政策就是打着惠及民生的旗号。

secondly，To launch a new round of real estate regulation is born of we need。In recent years，Governments at all levels are often mention“Born we”，Also unceasingly to publish relevant policy try to benefit the people's livelihood。Can also some local government but we the name of birth，Line seeking reality of the vested interests，Such as more than 30 cities fine-tuning the central control policy is under the banner of the livelihood of the people benefit。

　　事实上，真正的惠及民生举措应该是启动新一轮房地产调控，在大力兴建保障房的同时，力促房价下跌，让民众不仅能够以合理的价位买到住房，也能腾出更多的资金用于消费、投资。

In fact，The real benefit the people's livelihood measures should be to launch a new round of real estate regulation，In vigorously build security room at the same time，Urged falling house prices，Let people can not only at a reasonable price to buy housing，Can also make more money for consumption、investment。

　　第三，启动新一轮房地产调控是维护政府公信力的需要。近年来，中央对房地产进行了数度调控，尽管政府相关部门在做报告时总是喜欢提及“调控收到了一定的效果”，可在民众看来，以往的历次调控绝大多数沦为“空调”，因为每次调控的结果是把房价给调上去了。我们可以毫不夸张地说，政府的公信力已经被这几轮“空调”给消耗得所剩不多了。

The third，To launch a new round of real estate regulation is to maintain the credibility of our government needs。In recent years，Central to the number of real estate regulation，Although the government related department doing report always like to mention“Regulation received the certain effect”，Can be in the public seems，Past all previous regulation most into“Air conditioning”，Because every time control result is the house price to tone up。It is no exaggeration to say，The government's credibility has been the rounds“Air conditioning”To expend there isn't a lot left。

　　本轮调控以来，中央数度强调坚持房地产调控不动摇，调控目标也由“遏制房价过快上涨”逐步升级为“促进房价合理回归”。在这样的目标下，民众看到了希望，与中央一道和地产利益群体进行深度博弈，去年下半年各地市场出现量价齐跌即为明证。

Epicycle regulation since，The central number degree it puts emphasis on the real estate regulation not be moved，Also the control target“Curb prices rising too fast”Gradually upgrade to“Promote the prices reasonable regression”。In such a goal down，People see the hope，And the central a real estate interest groups and in-depth game，The second half of last year the market to appear around the volume and price fall together is the evidence。

　　可在近阶段，各地楼市成交大涨，房价也出现攀升，这是民众对中央调控再度丧失信心的表现，故此，启动新一轮房地产调控，利于在最大程度上维护政府的公信力。

But in recent stage，All of the property market clinch a deal，House prices are rising appear，This is the people of the central control performance once again lose confidence，therefore，To launch a new round of real estate regulation，To the greatest extent in the maintenance of the government's credibility。

　　（以上观点仅供网友参考，不代表本网立场）

（The above statement only for the net friend to reference，Do not represent this position）

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