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旅游地产:画饼充饥?--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-19

  记者 苏晶

Reporter SuJing

  

   旅游地产投资加速升温 Tourism real estate investment accelerated warming

  地产调控的基调未变,尤其是限购政策大大抑制了一些城市商品房的购买需求,房地产市场的生态环境发生了变化。而房企在商品房市场受政策制约的背景下以及在地方政府的政策推动下,开始延伸地产产业链,加码投资旅游地产。

The fundamental key of real estate regulation has not changed,Especially for purchasing policy greatly inhibit some city commercial housing purchase demand,The real estate market ecological environment changed。And the housing market, the enterprises engaged in commodity house by restriction policy under the background of the local government and the policy driven,Start extension real estate industry chain,Pyramid tourism real estate investment。

  进入2012年以来,新一轮房企投资旅游地产的热潮正在蔓延。统计数据显示,2012年一季度,全国旅游地产投资持续井喷,进入旅游地产的资金高达2600亿元,上亿元投资签约项目就有近70个;而1-4月全国房地产总投资为15835亿元,旅游地产占将近1/5。预计全年旅游地产投资额将超万亿元。

Since 2012,A new round of room enterprise investment tourism real estate upsurge is spreading。Statistics show,In the first quarter of 2012,The national tourism real estate investment have continued to blow in,Into the tourism real estate funds is as high as 260 billion yuan,Hundreds of millions of yuan investment contract project there is nearly 70;And 1-4 month national real estate total investment of RMB 1.5835 trillion yuan,Tourism real estate accounts for nearly 1/5。The tourism real estate investment is expected to exceed one trillion yuan。

  房企加码地方旅游地产项目投资,这与地方政府对旅游地产的支持政策直接关联。目前,中国至少27个省区市制定的“十二五”规划都把旅游业作为支柱产业或第三产业中的领头产业。

Room lotto to local tourism real estate project investment,This and local government support of tourism real estate policy direct correlation。At present,China at least 27 for these“1025”Planning to tourism as mainstay industry and the third industry in the lead industry。

  这主要因为地方政府通过引入地产企业开发旅游地产,不仅能够实现财政收入和GDP的提升,还有助于解决就业问题。旅游项目逐步成熟后,还会产生持续的税收收入,带动当地消费,可谓一箭多雕。

This is mainly because the local government by introducing the real estate enterprise development tourism real estate,Can not only realize financial income and the ascension of the GDP,Also help solve the problem of employment。Tourism projects after gradually mature,Also can produce continuous tax revenue,Drive the local consumption,It may be said more than an arrow carved。

  正是基于这一逻辑,地方政府对旅游地产“情有独钟”,早先以非常低廉的金额把土地出让给房企,而房企所看重的也正是政府给予的这一项优惠政策。

It is based on this logic,The local government of tourism real estate“Have a special liking”,Earlier with very low amount of the land transfer to room enterprises,And the housing enterprises values is the government give this a preferential policy。

  目前,从房企热衷的海南岛到惠州东海岸、长三角区域,再到山东半岛、环渤海区以及云南,从滨海度假到内地山水园林,越来越多的房企正在旅游地产项目上“跑马圈地”。而在丽江、大理、腾冲、普洱的漫长旅游资源带上,动辄圈地几千亩甚至几十平方公里、投资数百亿元的旅游地产项目更是星罗棋布。旅游地产投资真可谓热火朝天。

At present,From the room enterprise dedicated to huizhou east coast of hainan island、Long triangle area,And then to the shandong peninsula、Bohai rim region and yunnan,From coastal resort to the mainland landscape garden,More and more room to is tourism real estate projects“Horse race enclosure”。And in lijiang、Dali、segmented、Pu-erh tea long tourism resources bring,Frequently enclosure thousands of acres even dozens of square kilometers、Investment tens of billions of dollars of tourism real estate projects is more。Tourism real estate investment really is in full swing。

  
投资热将推高房企拿地资金压力 Investment craze will push up room to take to fund pressure

  房企大军加码旅游地产投资,虽然目前看风景这边独好,但如此大规模的旅游地产投资必然会推升房企的圈地成本

Room qi army pyramid tourism real estate investment,Although at present see you've got a great view,But such a large-scale tourism real estate investment will push the room enterprises enclosure cost。

  房企大规模的开始加注旅游地产投资,最重要的还是借助旅游资源提升住宅以及商业地产的价值,而真正意义上以旅游为主业的房企至今仍未出现。华侨城虽然自称是旅游企业,但从其2011年的主营收入来看,房产收入占其营业收入近59%,旅游综合收入占其营业收入的36.4%。华侨城仍旧是以房产业务为主。可见,房企大规模投资旅游地产依旧奔着短期实现住宅快速销售为目的。

Room to large-scale start charging tourism real estate investment,The most important still is with tourism resources ascension house and value of commercial real estate,And the real meaning in tourism as the main room enterprises still does not appear。Oct though claiming to be tourism enterprise,But from its 2011 years of main income to see,Property income of its operating income nearly 59%,Traveling comprehensive income accounted for 36.4% of its revenue。Oct still is mainly real estate business。visible,Room to large-scale investment tourism real estate is still run the short-term to realize rapid residential sales for the purpose。

  旅游地产开发早期,由于商业模式比较独特,地方政府对从事旅游地产开发的企业提供非常优惠的支持政策,尤其是在房企拿地方面都给予不小优惠。一般而言,早期的房企在旅游地产开发方面拿地成本都极为低廉。例如,从事旅游地产开发的华侨城在西南某城的拿地平均价为80万元/亩,而该区域当时的土地市场价为130万-50万元/亩;在北京的项目拿地平均价约为100万元/亩,远低于当时周边商品房200万元/亩的土地成本。

Tourism real estate development early,Due to the business model is unique,Local government has engaged in tourism real estate development enterprise with very favourable policy support,Especially in the room to take is to give a discount。Generally speaking,Early room enterprises in tourism real estate development to take the cost is very low。For example,Engaged in tourism real estate development in a city of southwest oct take to average price for 800000 yuan/mu,And the region at the time of the land market price for 1.3 million - 500000 yuan/mu;In Beijing, the project to take the average is about 1 million yuan/mu,Far below when peripheral commodity house 2 million yuan/mu land cost。

  但随着越来越多的房企加入旅游地产的开发行列,圈地成本也正在不断上升,房企再像以前那样从地方手中获得廉价土地的日子正在远去。

But as more and more room to join the ranks of the tourism real estate development,Enclosure costs are rising,Room enterprises as before again from the local hands get cheap land days are gone。

  再者,地方政府在旅游地产开发角色中将由以前的招商引资的被动角色向主动角色转变,受地方财政收入下降影响自然会相应的抬高土地成本。并且在一些风景区还涉及到当地居民的拆迁问题,随着当地居民对土地补偿要求的提高,拆迁成本上升也在推高房企的拿地成本。

moreover,The local government in the tourism real estate development role by the attract/bid for/invite investments will be before the passive role to the active role,By the local fiscal revenue decline will affect the natural corresponding raise land cost。And in some scenic spot also involves the local residents problem,Along with the local residents to improve the land compensation requirements,The rising costs are also pushing up house enterprises had to cost。

  以与云南的西双版纳一线为例,云南的西双版纳一线目前是自海南岛以外的旅游地产开发的第二个热点地区。近几年由于大量的房企开始加大此地区的旅游地产项目开发,土地价格急剧升温,成为云南16个地州市中飙升最快的州。2011年,西双版纳州土地出让金约15亿元,占财政收入的25%。

With yunnan's xishuangbanna a line as an example,Yunnan's xishuangbanna is currently a line from hainan island outside of the tourism real estate development second hotspots。In recent years due to a lot of room enterprises began to increase the area of tourism real estate project development,Land prices rose sharply,Become yunnan 16 indexs soared in the fastest of any state。In 2011,,Xishuangbanna prefecture of the land grant fee of about 1.5 billion yuan,25% of the total financial income。

  旅游资源地区的土地价格上升自然会抬高房企的拿地成本。同时,房企对旅游地产商业模式的热衷,疯狂地圈地,都将会加速房企现金流紧张,推高房企的自身负债比率。例如接连大手笔投入旅游地产的房企雅居乐,据其年报显示,截至2011年底其净负债比率为68%,再加上未付土地款及税款,经调整净负债率高达115%。

The tourism resources of the area of land prices will naturally go up room enterprises had to cost。At the same time,Room of tourism real estate enterprise business model of keen,Frantically enclosure,Will accelerate room to the intension of cash flow,Pushing up house enterprises own debt ratio。For example for big tourism real estate enterprises in the room this column music,According to its annual report shows,By the end of 2011 the net debt ratio is 68%,Plus unpaid land funds and taxes,The net adjustment ratio as high as 115%。

  从这一角度看,大量新进和即将进入旅游地产开发的房企拿地成本提高,将会缩小以旅游开发所带来的房产溢价空间,同时,也会增加房企的资金压力。

From this point of view,A large number of new and is coming into the tourism real estate development enterprises take the room to improve cost,Will be narrowed to tourism development brought about by the real estate premium space,At the same time,Will also increase the room to fund pressure。

  
资金投入能否会按预期收回? Funds can be expected to recover?

  旅游地产开发的一个主要特点是开发周期长,巨额资金投入,而这无形中会给开发企业带来巨大的资金压力,并且一些旅游项目由于客流量达不到从而造成资金回收期拉长。目前旅游地产的开发形式还是主要以商业地产和住宅地产相结合的方式,尤其是住宅地产还会受到政策的制约,其所面临的资金回收难题不容小觑。

Tourism real estate development a major feature of the development cycle is long,Huge capital investment,And this virtually will give development enterprise to bring the huge financial pressure,And some tourism projects due to the passenger flow can not reach the resulting in capital payback spin。At present the development of tourism real estate or forms mainly commercial real estate and residential real estate with a combination of,Especially residential real estate will be restricted by the policy,Its facing capital recovery problem not allow small gaze。

  以万达为例,2009年以万达为主投资的长白山旅游度假区,占地21平方公里、投资200多亿元。投资金额如此庞大的旅游地产,所面临资金收回的压力并不会小。万达预期旅游度假区建成后每年接待的游客量为300万至500万。但2011年前往长白山旅游的人流量只有142万人次。从这一角度看,目前的游客量与万达所预期的游客量还有很大差距。如果游客量无法如万达所预期的那样,收回成本的时间周期必将拉长。这对万达为主的开发企业将是个不小的资金考验。

Wanda as an example to,2009 to wanda give priority to investment changbai mountain tourist resort,Covers an area of 21 square kilometers、Investment more than 200 yuan。Investment amount so huge tourism real estate,Facing the pressure of funds back will not small。Wanda expected resort a year after the completion of the reception of visits for 3 million to 5 million。But in 2011 to changbai mountain tourism stream of only 1.42 million people。From this point of view,The visits and wanda had expected tourist visitors also has the very big disparity。If a much-needed boost can't such as wanda had expected it,Take the cost of time period will spin。The wanda primarily development enterprises will be a lot of funds test。

  进一步延伸来看,目前大规模的旅游地产开发必然会推升所对应的旅游景区的旅游成本,一些游客基于成本因素考虑,将会降低前往这些景区的意愿。而旅游地产开发建成后,大量的酒店、商业中心和旅游项目最大的需求一方来自游客,充足的游客量是保证酒店和商业中心能否收回成本实现盈利的前提。就目前如此大规模和高规格的旅游地产开发项目来看,一些旅游地区能否保证充足的游客量还是未知数。一旦游客量达不到规模,酒店、商业中心等项目都将会面临盈利困难甚至经营步履维艰。

Further extensions to see,At present the scale of the tourism real estate development will push the corresponding scenic tourist cost,Some visitors based on cost factors,Will go down to the will of the scenic spot。After the completion of real estate development and tourism,A lot of hotel、Business center and tourism projects biggest needs a party from the visitors,Plenty of visits is to ensure that the hotel and commercial center can withdraw cost profit premise。So the large-scale and high specifications of tourism real estate development projects to see,Some tourist areas can assure enough visits or unknown。Once a much-needed boost can not reach the scale,The hotel、Business center project will face profit difficult or even business walk with difficulty。

  事实上,旅游地产开发,真正吸引开发商的是由土地增值带来的商业地产和住宅的高回报。目前,旅游综合体是开发商最乐意尝试的形式,包括度假酒店集群、综合休闲项目、休闲地产社区等。基本模式是以旅游的名义圈地、滚动式开发、以旅游促进住宅和商业地产升值。

In fact,Tourism real estate development,Really attract developers is brought by the land value increment of commercial real estate and residential high returns。At present,Tourism is the most complex developers to try to form,Including resort hotel cluster、Comprehensive leisure project、Leisure real estate community, etc。Basic mode is the name of the tourism enclosure、Rolling development、To tourism promotion residential and commercial real estate appreciation。

  当住宅项目的变现能力不如房企们预期的那样迅速时,无疑会抵消房企们的这种预期,加大房企的资金流周转压力,甚至可能会压垮一些房企。由此可见,房企投资旅游地产的资金不能如预期收回的可能性非常大,这将使房企们面临最大的风险。

When housing project cashability as room enterprises are expected that when rapidly,No doubt will offset the room to the expected,Increase the fund flow of the enterprises room turnover pressure,May even overriding some room enterprises。Thus it can be seen,Room enterprise investment tourism real estate capital can't recover as expected possibility is very large,This will make the room the enterprises face the biggest risk。



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