7月25日，国务院决定派出8个督查组，对16个省(市)贯彻落实房地产调控政策的情况开展专项督查。此举对扭转人们对房地产市场的预期意义重大。

July 25，The state council has decided to sent eight DuZhaZu，On 16 provinces(city)Implementation of the real estate regulation policy carry out special supervision。The move to turn people to the real estate market expectations is of great significance。

　　6月份，70个大中城市中，新房环比涨价的城市达25个，而1月份这一数字是0，直到5月，也才有6个城市新房环比价格上涨。与此同时，成交量大涨、地王再现、地方政府松绑调控政策的消息频频传来。这些都说明：人们对房地产市场的预期正在改变，不少人由相信调控政策而持币待购，转向担忧房价大涨而急于入市。而追涨杀跌的效应一旦形成，房价势必再度脱缰。

June，In 70 large and medium-sized cities，Bridal chamber link price city of 25，In January and this number is 0，Until may，Just also has six cities bridal chamber link prices。meanwhile，Volume of、Reappearance left、The local government regulation and control policy easing the news came again and again。These show that：People to the real estate market expectations are changing，Many people believe that by the regulation policy and the money to purchase，To worry house prices rose and rush to the market。The effect of industrial and chase after go up once formed，House prices will run away again。

　　此前数月，从国务院领导到相关部委负责人，已多次重申坚持调控、稳定房价的政策目标不变，但多地房价仍逐次回升。这说明隔空喊话的力度已经不够，要想影响预期，必须拿出实际行动才行。

After months of，From the leadership of the state council to the relevant ministries and commissions of the person in charge，Already many times reiterate adhere to the regulation、Stable house prices policy target unchanged，But more house prices still successive picks up。This shows that the strength of positions between words are not enough，If you want to influence expected，Must take out the actual action to just go。

　　此次督查的重点是检查住房限购措施执行情况，差别化住房信贷政策执行情况，住房用地供应和管理情况，税收政策执行和征管情况。这些都是要害之处，但考虑到整体经济环境的变化，除坚持以限购为核心的既有调控政策，决策者还应因势利导，绸缪解决问题的长远之道。

This is the focus of the supervision inspection housing purchasing implementation measures，Differentiation housing credit policy implementation，Housing land supply and management situation，Tax policy implementation and collection situation。These are the key place，But considering the overall economic environment changes，In addition to adhere to the restricted as the core both regulation and control policy，Decision makers should also improve the occasion，Sentimentally attached to solve the problem of long term way。

　　此轮楼市回暖，直接原因是货币政策的持续放松，进入二季度，无论是开发商的融资成本和融资渠道，还是购房按揭的易得性，都有了明显变化。部分开发商此前曾被迫舍价换量以求生存，但预期中的行业整合尚未发生，最危险的时刻就已经过去。

This round of the property market thaw，The direct reason is that monetary policy for relaxation，Entered the second quarter，Whether developers financing cost and financing channels，The mortgage or the availability，Have the obvious change。Some developers had earlier forced to bits of price change quantity in order to survive，But expected industry integration has not yet occurred，The most dangerous moment is over。

　　货币政策的放松针对的并不是房地产，而是整体经济的下滑，但中国经济就像一个循环不畅的躯体，输血后血液流向的不是这躯体最需要的地方，而是最容易到达的地方。这个地方就是房地产。

Monetary policy to relax and not real estate，But overall economic decline，But China's economy is like a circulation body，After blood transfusion of blood flow to the body is not the places where they are needed most，But the most easy to get to places。This place is real estate。

　　对经济增长而言，没有一个行业有房地产业这样投资消费双向拉动的特点，只要开工盖房子，上游的建材、水泥、钢材、玻璃几十个行业就被带动起来，房子只要有人进去住，下游的装饰装修、家电家具、厨柜洁具等销售也会被带动起来。而只要这样的循环能够继续，地方政府单是卖地收入就会盆满钵满，更别提其他大小数十种税费收入了。

In terms of economic growth，No one industry that the real estate industry investment consumption two-way pull characteristics，As long as the start building a house，Upstream building materials、cement、steel、Dozens of glass industry is driven up，The house as long as someone enter in, and dwell，Downstream decoration、Home appliances furniture、Hutch ark sanitary ware sales will also be driving up。And as long as this cycle can continue，The local government is one of sale income will piles，Not to mention other size dozens of the tax income。

　　如果供需两旺，这样的循环当然皆大欢喜。但问题在于，当住房被培养成刚性需求之后，房价刚性上扬也有了利益基础。房价再高也得买房，意味着这是一个买家全输、卖家（房和地）全赢的零和游戏。这对社会和谐发展威胁巨大。

If the demand and supply of two prosperous，Such a cycle of course all's well that ends well。But the problem is that，When housing was trained after rigid demand，House prices rigid rise also had interest foundation。House prices and high also get to buy a house，Means that this is a buyer lose、sellers（Room and）All win a zero-sum game。The social harmonious development huge threat。

　　于是，针对房地产的调控在2005年大规模展开。而真正有可能改写游戏规则的调控有两轮，一轮于2007年8月启动、2008年11月夭折，另一轮于2010年4月启动并持续至今。

so，According to the regulation of real estate in 2005 large scale expansion。And really may rewrite the rules of the game regulation with two wheels，Round in August 2007 start、November 2008 aborted，Another round in April 2010 and continue to start today。

　　上轮调控为何夭折？因为房地产的下行周期和宏观经济的下行周期重合了，在很多人看来，保房地产就是保增长，就是保稳定。但上次调控夭折，让包括一些开发商在内的专业人士扼腕叹息，因为狂飙了十年的房地产行业需要来一次大调整，再不挤压房地产泡沫，将导致居民财富分配恶化，住房资源浪费，城镇化受阻，经济创新能力降低。坚持调控，不仅利于行业的长远健康，也利于整个经济的长远健康。不幸的是，本轮调控走到现在，行业下行周期和宏观经济的下行周期又重合了。

The wheel control why die？Because the real estate descending cycle and macroeconomic descending cycle the coincidence，In many people's opinion，The real estate is the growth，Is the stable。But the last time control aborted，Let including some developers, bid for professional sigh，Because of the hurricane ten years of real estate industry needs a big adjustment，Don't squeeze a real estate bubble，Residents will lead to the distribution of wealth deterioration，Housing the waste of resources，Urbanization hindered，Economic innovation ability reduce。Adhere to the regulation，Not only for the industry's long-term health，Also conducive to the economy's long-term health。unfortunately，This regulation go now，Industry descending cycle and macroeconomic descending cycle and the coincidence。

　　迄今为止，中央政府未曾透过任何放松调控的口风，但市场的预期却悄然生变。个中缘由，当仔细考量。

So far，The central government have not through any relaxation regulation of the breeze，But the market expected but quietly happen。Chinese reason，When the careful consideration。

　　这首先说明有相当多人认定无论中央还是地方，中国政府仍是一个增长优先型政府。基于各种因素，在增长与民生之间，政府优先选择的终将是增长。而本轮调控带有强烈个人色彩，一旦政府换届，房地产势必重获青睐。

The first specification has quite many people that whether the central or local，The Chinese government is still a growth YouXianXing government。Based on various factors，In the growth and between the people's livelihood，The government preference will be growth。And this control with strong individual color，Once the government of，Real estate certainly will regain favour。

　　这同时说明相当多人对调整中国经济结构以获得新增长动力信心不足。事实上，房地产调控成功与否，与中国经济结构转型顺利与否，是一根线上的两只蚂蚱。但过去20年的经历显示，每当保增长与调结构冲突，胜出的总是保增长。

This also shows quite many people the readjustment of the economic structure of China to get new growth power lack of confidence。In fact，Real estate regulation success or not，And China's economic structure transformation smoothly or not，Is a online two worms。But in the past 20 years of experience display，Whenever the growth and adjustable structure conflict，The winner is always the growth。

　　因此，顶住压力、坚持调控、稳定楼市预期，这是中央政府的短期应对之道。除此之外，中央政府还必须着眼房地产市场和整个中国经济的长效解决机制。

therefore，Resist pressure、Adhere to the regulation、Stable property market is expected to，This is the central government short-term deal with way。In addition，The central government also must focus on the real estate market and the whole China's economic long-term settlement mechanism。

　　例如，房价问题归根结底是由供求关系决定的。而要增加房，首先得增加地。这就需要破除政府对土地一级市场的垄断，赋予农民完整的土地财产权，尽快将各种形式的小产权房合法化。同时，切实降低地价，降低住房的开发成本。当然，这需要重新调整中央和地方的财权事权关系，需要相应的财税改革做配套。

For example，House prices problem in the final analysis, it is determined by the supply and demand relation。And to increase the room，First of all have to increase land。This needs to break the government land primary market monopoly，Endue farmers with complete land property rights，As soon as possible all forms of small property right legalization。At the same time，To reduce the price，Reduce the housing development cost。Of course，This need to adjust the central and local financial relationship between powers，Need corresponding fiscal reform do supporting。

　　另一方面，保障房建设必须加快推进。相比“铁公鸡”，保障房不仅同样具有拉动投资需求的功效，而且具有间接调节收入分配的功效，具有完善社会基础设施的功效。其实2008年底的四万亿刺激计划中，有九千亿是投向保障房的。可惜这一计划未能得到好的执行。

On the other hand，Security room construction must accelerate。Compared with“miser”，Security room also has not only pulled the effect of investment demand，And with indirect regulating income distribution effect，Has the perfect social infrastructure efficacy。In fact the end of 2008 four trillion stimulus plan，There are nine hundred billion is to safeguard room。But the plan failed to get good executive。

　　全局而言，持续三十多年的靠要素投入支撑的粗放经济增长模式已走到尽头，这一点已经成为各界共识。但如何通过深化制度改革来创造一个更加可持续的增长模式，共识却仍待形成，行动更远未展开。

For global，For 30 years by inputs support extensive economic growth model has come to an end，It has become a consensus from all walks of life。But how to through the deepening system reform to create a more sustainable growth model，Consensus still stay formation，Action is not spread further。