[提要] [abstract]如果说前几年成都商铺价格还处在相对合理的基准线上，从2011年开始，商铺售价确实热得发烫：成熟商圈如春熙路、建设路、东大街等地，商铺单价动辄八九万以上，社区底商也涨至3-4万/平米甚至更高。商铺投资是否风险已加大？ If before a few years chengdu shops price is still in relatively reasonable on the line，Begin from 2011，Shops selling price really hot：Mature business circle spring-like hee road、Jianshe road、The east street, etc，Retail price at every turn 890 thousand above，Community bottom business also rise to 3-40000 / square meters or more。Whether risk investment shops has stepped up？

供大于求 Supply exceeds demand

　　2012年上半年，成都市商铺新增供应73.98万平方米，较去年同期上涨173.1%。然而市场消化量仅25.32万平方米，相当于供应量的1/3。

In the first half of 2012，Chengdu new shops supply 739800 square meters，Compared to the same period last year rose 173.1%。However market digestion quantity only 253200 square meters，Equivalent to a third of the supply。

回报率低 Rate of return is low

　　外双楠商圈一些社区商铺或商业中心，售价已炒到7万元/平方米甚至更高，月租金却在180-220元/平方米，投资回报率不足5%，明显低于7%-8%的正常水平。

The double nan business circle some community shops or commercial center，Price has Fried to 70000 yuan/square meters or more，Monthly rent is 180-220 yuan/square meters，Less than 5% rate of return on investment，Obviously less than 7% - 8% of the normal level。

　　“现在商铺价格普遍都抬得很高，前两年建设路的商铺单价还只要三四万，现在三环外很远的社区商铺都是这个价了，这年头，想买个商铺投资不容易啊！”作为民间投资者，汤先生最近看了几个商铺后不由感慨。

“Now the price shops generally carry very high，The first two years of jianshe road shop unit price also as long as silk，Now tricyclic external long community shops are the price，This year，Want to buy a shops investment is not easy！”As a folk investors，Mr. Soup recently saw a few shops by feeling after。

　　如果说前几年成都商铺价格还处在相对合理的基准线上，从2011年开始，商铺售价确实热得发烫：成熟商圈如春熙路、建设路、东大街等地，商铺单价动辄八九万以上，社区底商也涨至3-4万/平米甚至更高。商铺投资是否风险已加大？商铺价格高企或许已经透支升值预期？一位商业地产资深人士感叹，很多投资者并不看重商铺租金回报率，而是想趁热炒一把，或者只是因为买不了住宅而买商铺求资金保值，在过度透支了未来利好、投资急于短线套现的混乱现实面前，商铺投资前景堪忧。

If before a few years chengdu shops price is still in relatively reasonable on the line，Begin from 2011，Shops selling price really hot：Mature business circle spring-like hee road、Jianshe road、The east street, etc，Retail price at every turn 890 thousand above，Community bottom business also rise to 3-40000 / square meters or more。Whether risk investment shops has stepped up？Retail prices might have overdraft appreciation expectations？A commercial real estate senior personage exclamation，Many investors does not value shops rent rate of return，But to strike while Fried a，Or just because can't buy the house and buy shops for hedge funds，In the excessive overdraw the good future、Investment rush to short the messy reality of cash before，Shops investment prospects are grim。

频频“转手”暗含风险转嫁 frequently“From hand to hand”Implied risk shifting

　　“今年开始，很多商铺转让频率非常高，有的半年内连续转手了三次。”近日，成都城区成熟商圈数家房产中介门店店长介绍。

“At the beginning of this year，Many shops transfer frequency is very high，Some half years continuous changed hands three times。”recently，Chengdu city mature business circle several real estate intermediary store manager is introduced。

　　中原地产棕南分店曾经理向记者透露，在人民南路仁恒置地广场斜对面，有一家120平方米左右的店铺，从去年年底至今，店铺从未开业就已经数易其手，从最初挂牌价500万涨到后来的550万，而前不久被人以620万左右的价格买走，商铺投资暴利可见一斑。

The central plains real estate brown south branch had manager has revealed，In the south people LuRen constant real estate square opposite，There is a 120 square metre shop，So far from the end of last year，Shops have never opened a few easy its hand，From the initial listing price 5 million up to 5.5 million later，And not long ago by a person with the price of around 6.2 million bought，Shops investment profits is obvious。

　　近日，四川中原地产发布2012年成都商业地产市场报告显示，2012年上半年，成都市商铺新增供应73.98万平方米，较去年同期上涨173.1%。然而，市场消化量仅仅25.32万平方米，相当于供应量的1/3。从成都商业地产几何式增长模式来看，被盲目炒高的商铺市场因投资隐患而大打折扣。

recently，Sichuan zhongyuan real estate release 2012 chengdu commercial real estate market report，In the first half of 2012，Chengdu new shops supply 739800 square meters，Compared to the same period last year rose 173.1%。however，Market digestion quantity only 253200 square meters，Equivalent to a third of the supply。From chengdu commercial real estate geometric type growth mode to see，Was blind Fried high of shops in the market for investment hidden danger and sell at a discount greatly。

　　“就商铺投资市场而言，虽然有体量过剩和租售倒挂的危机存在，但最大的问题还在于商铺恶炒套现状况严重。”CRC商业地产联盟专家王长旭认为，现在的商铺投资，很多并不看重租金回报率，而是想趁着热潮炒一把，或者因为买不了住宅而买商铺求资金保值，导致高企的价格透支了商铺投资未来几年的前景。

“Just investment shops in the market，Although there are mass surplus and rental fuchsia crisis exist，But the biggest problem is that shops evil fry taking serious condition。”CRC commercial real estate union experts WangChangXu think，Now the shops investment，Many is not valued rent rate of return，But to the boom Fried a，Or because can't buy the house and buy shops for hedge funds，Lead to high price overdrawn shops investment prospect of the next few years。

　　事实上，任何一个区域、商圈的商铺价格和租金水平，都是由培育时间做保障的。如果仅仅为了套现，则很容易造成风险的转嫁，这比暂时的租售倒挂还严重。

In fact，Any one area、Business circle of shops in the price and rent level，By cultivating time for security。If only for cash，It is very easy to cause the risk shifting，This is a temporary rental fuchsia also serious。