8月，市场对房价问题的担忧并没有结束，市场仍处在寻底过程。整体而言，当前有两点信息值得关注：

August，Market for house prices concerns and no end，The market is still in found bottom process。overall，There are two current information is worth attention：

　　第一，在近2年半的持续调控之后，单月土地、新开工数据创出近2年来最低值。7月单月土地购置面积仅为1438.81万平方米，环比减少64.13%，同比减少72.71%。从历史数据看，该数据为自2002年5月以来历史最低值。7月单月新开工面积仅为1.15亿平方米，环比减少40.96%，同比减少26.71%。从历史数据看，7月新开工通常面临回落，但仍创出自2009年10月以来最低值。从行业自身规律看，销售恢复3到6个月会带来新开工和土地购置增速恢复。但以上数据未按经验恢复，却创新低，说明持续不断的逆周期、行政性调控，已经再次破坏行业正常运行规律。

The first，In nearly two and a half years of continued after regulation，Odd-numbered months land、New start data makes nearly 2 years minimum value。July monthly performance land acquisition area to be 14.3881 million square metre only，Link reduced by 64.13%，Reduced by 72.71% year-on-year。From the historical data to see，Since the data since May 2002 lowest history。July monthly performance start new area to be 115 million square metre only，Link reduced by 40.96%，Reduced by 26.71% year-on-year。From the historical data to see，July new start usually face down，But still makes since October 2009 minimum value。From the inherent laws of the industry to see，Sales recovery 3 to 6 months to bring new start and land acquisition speed recovery。But not according to experience above data recovery，But low innovation，That constant inverse cycle、Administrative regulation，Has again destroy industry normal operation rule。

　　第二，7月大部分城市房价仍处于环比上升阶段。从我们所统计城市库存水平看，主要城市房地产库存压力较年初有明显下降，短期看房价下降存在难度。但是整体而言，市场需求并没有明显大幅放大，房价缺乏大幅上涨动力。新开工、土地购置面积创新低带来经济压力，而房价环比上涨带来民生压力。短期民生压力影响社会稳定情绪，但如果经济压力恶化最终会导致失业增加进而加大民生压力。政府在以上两难境况中实难做出超预期行为。因此我们判断，调控会延续现有力度，稳定刚需释放同时打击投资需求的差别化方向不会改变。

The second，July most urban house price still in link rise phase。From what we see statistics urban inventory level，Major cities real estate stock pressure for the year has decreased obviously，The short run falling house prices difficulty。But on the whole，The market demand and no obvious greatly enlarged，Lack of house prices rise considerably power。New start、Land acquisition area innovation low bring economic pressure，And house prices rising annulus pressure to bring the people's livelihood。Short-term minsheng pressure influence social stability mood，But if the economic pressure deterioration will eventually lead to increased unemployment and then increase the people's livelihood pressure。The government in the above dilemma situation physical difficult to make super expected behavior。So we judge，Regulation will continue existing strength，Stable just need to release at the same time strike investment demand of differentiation direction will not change。

　　从PE估值看，截至2012年8月20日，房地产板块的整体估值（PE-TTM）为13.3倍，低于行业近3年的历史平均水平（17.14倍）。因此，房地产板块仍有较强的估值修复需求。我们认为当前板块基本反映房价上涨和调控预期。市场目前对调控方式存在各种传闻，但当前宏观经济情况决定调控很难出现全面打击，更多是有保有压。以上原因造成调控难超预期，短期内，投资者需等待高层更明确的态度和后期的房价趋势，我们不建议持有过度看空的观点。 （作者系海通证券(600837,股吧)分析师）

From the PE valuation see，By the end of 2012 on August 20,，Real estate plate overall valuation（PE - TTM）Is 13.3 times，Lower than industry nearly 3 years of history average level（17.14 times）。therefore，Real estate plate still has strong valuation repair demand。We believe that the current plate basic reflect rising house prices and regulatory expectations。Market at present to control mode existing in all kinds of rumours，But the current macroeconomic situation decision control is hard to a general strike，More is keep pressure。Above cause regulation difficult than expected，In the short term，Investors need to wait high-rise more definite attitude and later house price trend，We do not recommend hold excessive look empty point of view。 （The author system haitong securities(600837,guba)analysts）