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市场超跌拉锯 旅游股机会凸显--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-08-07

  近期A股市场沪综指破位2132点之后,市场总体呈现出拉锯反复的格局, 而从市场层面来看,板块的选择性较为复杂。跟踪中期报告情况来看,研究发现钢铁、有色金属、纺织、地产等强周期行业的中报非常不理想,因此从政策效应累积及近年产业发展的角度来看,旅游行业近年景气度较好的背景下,在市场超跌拉据中,关注其波动性机会或是不错的板块策略之一。 Recently A share market Shanghai synthesis index break A after 2132 points,The total market present a see-saw repeated pattern, And from a market level,Parts of the selectivity is more complicated。Tracking mid-term report situation,Study found that steel、Non-ferrous metal、textile、Real estate and so on the strong cycle industry center daily news very not ideal,So from the policy effect accumulated and the point of view of the industrial development in recent years,Tourism industry in recent years the boom of a good background,The fall in the market, according to,Pay close attention to its volatility opportunities or good plate one strategy。

  从目前国内旅游业景气程度来看,研究发现数据显示仍然较好。2012年上半年全国旅游总收入约1.28万亿元,同比增长17.3%。我国居民旅游消费持续增长,旅游市场整体繁荣。其中,上半年国内旅游人数约15.5亿人次,同比增长14.6%;国内旅游收入约1.13万亿元,同比增长20.1%。入境旅游人数约6,625万人次,与上年同期基本持平;入境过夜旅游人数约2,835万人次,同比增长1.3%;旅游外汇收入约240亿美元,同比增长3%;出境旅游人数约3,800万人次,同比增长18%。全国旅游业保持了平稳较快发展态势。研究认为中国2012年旅游业基本面高景气度有望得到延续,景气度仍然较好。

From the current domestic tourism boom intensity,Study found that data showed that still is good。In the first half of 2012 the national total tourist income of about 1.28 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 17.3%。Residents in our country tourism consumption growth,Tourism market overall prosperity。Among them,In the first half the number of domestic travel about 1.55 billion passengers,Year-on-year growth of 14.6%;Domestic tourism income of about 1.13 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 20.1%。Tourist arrivals about six,6.25 million people,And the same period last year flat;The entry tourism for the night has about 2,8.35 million people,Year-on-year growth of 1.3%;The tourist foreign exchange income of about $24 billion,Year-on-year growth of 3%;Outbound tourism has about three,8 million people,Year-on-year growth of 18%。The national tourism keep the fast and steady development situation。Studies suggest that China 2012 tourism boom of high fundamentals is expected to be last,The boom of still is good。

  从时间结点来考虑,目前旅游行业可谓是处于旺季阶段,而配合目前A股相关上市公司为看,其业绩增长或平稳、前景较好的旅游类公司或有较好的波动性机会。

From the time node to consider,At present it is peak season of the tourism industry in the stage,And now A shares with related the listed company to see,Its growth performance or stable、Prospect of good travel company has a good chance or volatility。

  从旅游行业的数据来看,五月和十月是国内游客出游的高峰,其占比显著高于其他月份。而目前来看,今年旅游出现一个变化,暑期旅游量或增长较大。目前全国正是大、中、小学生的暑假期,其国内旅游或仍将成为热点,进而带动部分相关上市公司旅游数据的亮点。研究目前旅游板块来看,上市公司家数大体为32家,属于较小的体量。从经营业绩来看,其体现出较大的差异化。目前餐饮旅游行业P/E估值为27倍附近, 由于旅游旺季的推动作用,各子板块中,旅游服务、景区的P/E估值相对较高 , 分别为28倍、29倍。研究认为,在旅游旺季及上市公司中报期间,密切关注中报业绩增长较稳定的公司或有波动性表现机会,而集中的品种建议是国内知名的旅行社类、酒店餐饮类、主题公园类等公司。

From the data to see the tourism industry,In may and October is domestic tourists travel peak,Which accounts for significantly higher than in other than。And so far,This year a change in tourism,Summer tourist quantity or big growth。At present the whole nation is big、in、Pupils summer vacation period,Its domestic tourism or will still be hot,And then drive part relative listed companies the highlight of tourism data。Research is tourism plate and see,The listed company number 32 in home,Belong to the smaller size。From business performance and see,It shows the difference of the larger。At present restaurant tour industry P/E valuation for 27 times nearby, The tourist season because of the role,Each child plate of,Tourism service、Scenic spot of the P/E valuation relatively high , Respectively for 28 times、29 times。Studies suggest that,In the tourist season and listed companies during the center daily news,Pay close attention to increase performance center daily news of the more stable company or have volatility performance opportunities,The suggestion is that variety and focus on domestic well-known travel agency class、The hotel catering class、Theme park of the company。




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