在介绍了本市癌症发病趋势、现状等情况之后，市疾病预防控制中心副主任仲伟鉴向市民解答了导致癌症发病率变化的诸多因素是什么，而这些因素对于防治癌症有着重要的参考意义。仲伟鉴认为，根据目前的分析，上海居民癌症发病率变化的原因主要有两个方面。

In cancer incidence trends in the city are introduced/After the present situation, and so on and so forth,Municipal center for disease control and prevention deputy director of the ZhongWeiJian answered cause cancer to the citizen change factors of incidence of a disease is what,And these factors for the prevention and treatment of cancer has important reference significance.ZhongWeiJian think,According to the current analysis,Shanghai residents in cancer incidence reasons there are two main aspects of change.

　　一、癌症是老年人的常见病 a/Cancer is a common disease in the elderly

　　1973年，上海居民平均期望寿命是72.71岁，而2012年则为82.41岁，增长了近10岁；60岁以上人口的百分比已超过20%。

In 1973,,Shanghai residents' average life expectancy is 72.71 years,And in 2012 was 82.41 years,Increased by almost 10 years old;Over 60 percentage has been more than 20% of the population.

　　癌症是老年人的常见病，人口老龄化导致癌症发病率呈持续增长的趋势。据上海市人口和计划生育委员会预测，到2020年，上海市将迎来人口老龄化的高峰，届时60岁以上人口百分比将达到34%，而这种情况将一直延续到21世纪中叶。这意味着癌症等慢性非传染性疾病发病率的持续上升势头难以遏制。

Cancer is a common disease in the elderly,An ageing population causes cancer incidence is increasing trend.According to the forecast of Shanghai population and family planning commission,By 2020,Shanghai could usher in a new peak of the aging of the population,When the population over 60 percentage will be 34%,And this situation will continue until the middle of the 21st century.This means that the incidence of chronic noncommunicable diseases such as cancer rising momentum unstoppable.

二、癌症危险因素正逐步变迁 (2)/Cancer risk factors are gradually change

　　世界卫生组织世界癌症研究中心在最近出版的《世界癌症报告》中指出，烟草是最重要的癌症危险因素。烟草、饮酒、过多阳光暴露、缺乏体育锻炼、超重和肥胖、饮食因素及职业性暴露和慢性感染是发生癌症的主要危险因素，有效地预防这些因素和有效的癌症筛查可控制癌症的发病。

The world health organization (who) published by the world cancer research center in recent[The world cancer report]Pointed out in,Tobacco is one of the most important risk factor for cancer.tobacco/Drinking alcohol/Too much sun exposure/Lack of physical activity/Overweight and obesity/Dietary factors and occupational exposure and chronic infection is a major risk factor for cancer,Effectively prevent these factors and effective cancer screening can be control the onset of cancer.

　　1.烟草流行导致潜在疾病高峰全面控烟可减少三成癌症病死率

1. The tobacco epidemic cause disease peak potential comprehensive tobacco control can reduce cancer mortality thirty percent

　　据上海市疾病预防控制中心成人行为危险因素监测显示，烟草在上海的流行仍十分严重，目前男性吸烟率为61.8%，女性为1.2%，且青少年吸烟率有增长趋势。由此估计，上海全市约有烟民352万。

According to Shanghai municipal center for disease control and prevention of adult behavior risk factors monitoring display,The tobacco epidemic in Shanghai is still very serious,The male smoking rate was 61.8%,Women was 1.2%,And the trend of teenage smoking rates have increased.The estimated,Shanghai has about 3.52 million smokers in the whole city.

　　从烟草流行到其导致的疾病高峰一般有40年的间隔，吸烟者数量巨大及其增加趋势将导致未来肺癌等癌症发病率的增长。如果全面控制吸烟，可减少约80%以上的肺癌病死率和30%的癌症总病死率。

From the tobacco epidemic diseases of to its peak average 40 year intervals,Smokers, huge population and its increase trend will lead to the growth of lung cancer and other cancer incidence in the future.If take full control of smoking,Can reduce about 80% of lung cancer mortality and 30% of the total cancer mortality.

　　2.饮食结构接近西方国家三成市民久坐少动方式生活

2. The diet is close to thirty percent in western countries people less sedentary lifestyle

　　上海居民1982年至2002年营养调查资料显示，居民营养状况明显改善，主要特点是畜禽肉类、油脂和盐摄入过多，谷类食物和蔬菜摄入不足，食盐每日摄入为9.9克，脂肪供能比达到36%，超过世界卫生组织推荐的上限(30%)，具有危险和有害饮酒习惯的比例达到15.5%。

Shanghai residents from 1982 to 2002, nutrition survey data show,Residents obviously improve nutritional status,Main features are livestock and poultry meat/Too much fat and salt intake,Inadequate intake of cereals and vegetables,Daily intake of 9.9 grams of salt,Fat power ratio reaches 36%,Exceeding the maximum limit recommended by the world health organization(30%),15.5% has the dangerous and harmful drinking habits.

　　这些变化使上海居民的膳食结构逐渐接近西方国家。而上海居民乳腺癌、结肠直肠癌、胰腺癌发病率的持续上升和胃癌、食管癌发病率的持续下降也反映了饮食营养因素对上海癌症谱变化的影响，预计今后这种影响不仅将持续下去，效应也会越发明显。

These changes make Shanghai residents' dietary structure gradually close to the west.But Shanghai residents of breast cancer/Colorectal cancer (CRC)/The rising incidence of pancreatic cancer and stomach cancer/Declining the incidence of esophageal cancer also reflects the diet and nutrition factors affect Shanghai cancer spectrum change,This effect not only in future is expected to continue,Effect will be more obvious.

　　研究提示，30%以上的上海居民采取久坐少动生活方式，超重率达31.0%，肥胖率达9.2%。该现象在青少年中尤为突出，80%以上的青少年每天运动少于1小时，学生肥胖率持续增长，肥胖检出率在过去的15年中增长了近2倍。

Research suggests,More than 30% of Shanghai residents take less sedentary lifestyle,Overweight rate was 31.0%,Obesity rate was 9.2%.The phenomenon especially in teenagers,More than 80% of the youth movement is less than 1 hours a day,Obesity among students continues to grow,Obesity detection rate in the past 15 years has increased by nearly 2 times.

　　3.慢性感染和职业性暴露

3. The occupational exposure and chronic infection

　　慢性感染和职业性暴露是发展中国家人群发生癌症的重要危险因素。最典型的是肝癌与乙肝病毒慢性感染相关。

Chronic infections and occupational exposure is a developing country people important risk factor for cancer.The most typical is the cancer of the liver is associated with chronic hepatitis b virus infection.

　　仲伟鉴介绍说，目前尚缺乏20世纪50至60年代以来上海人群乙肝表面抗原携带率的连续监测资料，但是，近30年来上海人群肝癌发病率持续下降应该与其生活条件改善、乙肝感染率下降有密切关系。

ZhongWeiJian said,There is a lack of 50 to 60 s of the 20th century, Shanghai people to carry the hepatitis b surface antigen (continuous monitoring data,but,For nearly 30 years sustained drop in liver cancer incidence in Shanghai should be to improve living conditions/There is a close relationship between hepatitis b infection rates down.

　　卫生部在2006年开展了全国人群慢性乙肝等有关疾病血清流行病学调查，发现全国1-59岁人群乙肝表面抗原携带率为7.18%，上海人群携带率更低。持续18年的上海新生儿实施乙肝疫苗接种跟踪结果显示，免疫儿童的乙肝表面抗原阳性率始终低于1%。对于其他慢性感染，如妇女人乳头状瘤病毒(HPV)感染率、一般人群中幽门螺杆菌感染率等及职业性暴露，目前尚缺乏可供评估的连续监测资料。　记者 金恒

In 2006, the ministry of health launched the national population related diseases such as chronic hepatitis b serum epidemiological investigation,Found 1-59 people across the country carry the hepatitis b surface antigen at a rate of 7.18%,Shanghai people carrying rate is lower.Lasted 18 years of neonatal implementation of hepatitis b vaccination tracking results show in Shanghai,Child immunization of hepatitis b surface antigen positive rate is lower than 1%.For other chronic infection,Such as women and human papilloma virus(HPV)Infection rates/Helicobacter pylori infection in the general population, and occupational exposure,There is a lack of continuous monitoring data for evaluation.The reporter Kim