本报讯

Report from our correspondent

　　见习记者杜冰报道 根据近日出版的《中国家庭金融调查报告·2012》提供的数据，目前我国城市地区住房的供需缺口为5929万套，“十二五”期间政府提供3600万套保障房的计划，将满足我国城市地区住房缺口的60.7%，这意味着我国住房刚需旺盛的时期已经过去。

Trainee DuBing reported recently published according to reporters《China family financial report · 2012》To provide the data，At present our country city area of housing supply and demand a gap of 59.29 million sets，“1025”The government provided during the 36 million sets of security in the room of the plan，Will meet in urban area of housing gap of 60.7%，This means that our country housing to the period just exuberant have in the past。

　　住房问题是《中国家庭金融调查报告·2012》最受关注的焦点之一。西南财经大学中国家庭金融调查与研究中心主任甘犁对其中数据进行了详细解读。对于《报告》中提出的“全国90%、城市85%的自有住房拥有率”所引发的争论，甘犁表示，85%的自有住房拥有率并不意味着只有15%的民众才有住房的刚性需求。通过中国家庭金融调查而得到的微观数据，可以计算出各类民众的刚性需求，包括无房家庭的住房需求，流动人口的住房需求,与长辈同住的“啃老族”住房需求，新增成年家庭的住房需求，新增农民工的住房需求以及拆迁家庭的住房需求。依据上述口径推算出我国城市地区的房屋需求为9977万套。如果考虑多套住房的潜在供给，再加上2011年未出售的商品房约166万套，我国城市地区的住房总供给为4048万套。因此，我国城市地区的供需缺口为5929万套。

Housing problem is《China family financial report · 2012》One of the most popular focus。Southwestern university of finance and Chinese family financial survey and research, director of the center for which data GanLi detailed explanation。for《report》Put forward in the“The national 90%、85% of the city has its own housing ownership”The controversy triggered in，GanLi said，85% of their own housing ownership does not mean that only 15% of people with housing to the rigid demand。Through the Chinese family financial investigation and get the micro data，All kinds of people can be calculated the rigid demand，No room including the housing needs of family，The housing needs of the floating population,And the elders of the live with“Boomerang child”Housing demand，The housing needs of new adult family，The housing needs of new rural migrant workers and the housing needs of the family。Based on the above caliber calculated the urban area housing demand for 99.77 million sets。If consider many sets of housing supply potential，Plus 2011 years of unsold commodity house about 1.66 million sets，Urban area of housing supply for 40.48 million sets of the total。so，Urban areas of the shortfall of 59.29 million sets of supply and demand。

　　甘犁表示，若不考虑家庭改善性住房需求及未来其他供求变化，政府提出的在“十二五”期间提供3600万套保障房计划能满足我国城市地区住房缺口的60.7%。按照2011年的商品房建设速度，“十二五”期间商品房开发商只需工作两年半就能满足城市地区所有的住房刚性需求，中国住房刚需旺盛的时期已经过去。当前可能存在的房价报复性反弹主要来源于住房的投资需求，是房地产泡沫生成的先兆，值得警惕。

GanLi said，If you don't consider families improve housing demand and the future of other changes in supply and demand，The government put forward in“1025”Provide 36 million sets of security during the room can meet in urban areas plan housing gap of 60.7%。According to 2011 commodity house construction speed，“1025”Commercial housing developers work during only two and a half years can satisfy all of urban areas housing rigid demand，China's housing just need strong period is over。The possible existence of house prices rebound mainly comes from the housing reprisal investment demand，Is real estate bubble generated aura，alarmed。

　　《报告》显示，我国城市第一套房平均收益率在300%以上。甘犁表示：“如果中国房价下调30%，只有27.8%的家庭房价市值会低于其成本价，2.91%的家庭住房价值低于银行欠款。也就是说，房价下调30%对银行业的冲击很小。”

《report》shows，Our country city first suite average yield of 300% or more。GanLi said：“If China house prices by 30%，Only 27.8% of the family house prices market value will be below cost，2.91% of family housing value below the bank debt。That is，House prices by 30% on the impact of the banking industry is very small。”

　　据了解，西南财经大学中国家庭金融调查与研究中心计划未来每两年进行一轮调查，样本规模将持续增加。今年4月份的电话回访已经完成，正在进行下一轮的电话回访。未来还将持续下去。本次调查的源数据将在年底向社会免费公开。

According to understand，Southwestern university of finance and Chinese family financial survey and research center plan future every two years, a survey，Sample size will continue to rise。In April this year the phone pays a return visit has already been done，Is the next round of phone return visits。The future will also continue。This investigation of the source data is available free to the society by the end of the year。