长江商报消息 Yangtze river commercial daily news

　　从7月6日开始，我国人民币存贷款利率进行了今年内第二次调低，由于这次降息与上一次降息相隔仅为28天，因此在很多人看来，这次降息显得十分突然，而由于降息的时间窗口是在6月份经济数据公布规定日期的前夕，因此这也被普遍理解为将要出台的经济数据估计很不乐观，从今年二季度形成的中国经济下行趋势并没有得到改观。市场认为，虽然6月份CPI同比增幅可能在3%以下，创下近年新低，但GDP同比增幅也将大幅走低，估计将跌破8%。

From July 6 begin，RMB loan rate in China the second time this year low，Because the cut apart for the last time and cut interest rates only 28 days，So in many eyes，The cut appear very suddenly，And because the time window is cut interest rates in June announced economic data on the eve of a specified date，So it also is generally understood to be on the introduction of the economic data estimate is not optimistic，In the second quarter of this year from the economic downside trend form China and didn't get change。Market think，Although June CPI year-on-year rate of increase in May to below 3%，Set a new low in recent years，But the year-on-year rate of increase GDP will also sharply，The estimate is fell below 8%。

　　此轮经济下行为什么会出现？舆论普遍将其解读为是从紧货币政策的执行，它虽然成功地控制住了物价，但也对实体经济运行产生了伤害，企业得不到银行信贷的支持，开工不足，市场萎缩，这从前几个月已经公布的一系列数据可以得到证明。于是，货币政策转向便成为市场管理部门当然的选择，从去年底开始，央行已经开始了连续降低银行准备金率的行动，并在上个月开启降息大门。但是，令人感到不安的是，货币政策的转向已有一段时间，银行对于向企业放贷也表现出了很高的热情，但企业借贷却并没有出现高潮，相反一直处于低位。

This round of economic downside why can appear？The general public opinion is interpreted as a tight monetary policy implementation，Although it successfully control prices，But also to the real economy operation produced damage，Enterprise can't get bank credit support，Insufficient start，Market atrophy，This was a few months have been announced a series of data can be proven。so，Monetary policy to become the market management department of course selection，Start from the end of，The central bank has already started to reduce the Banks' reserve requirements for the action，And last month in the open door to cut interest rates。but，Are disturbing the is，Monetary policy has been to a period of time，Bank lending to the enterprise to also show the high enthusiasm，But the enterprise lending but did not appear high tide，The opposite has been in low。

　　这种状况说明，将目前的经济下行理解为货币政策过紧，只是一种皮相的结论。货币政策在经济运行中虽然确实能够发挥重要作用，但并不是决定因素，我们还得跳过这层屏幕，另外寻找到真正的原因。一个无法回避的情况是，已经持续两年多的楼市调控，今年开始出现了微妙的变化，一方面，房价疯狂上涨的势头终于被遏制住，多个城市的房价出现了下跌，但另一方面，越来越多的地方政府加入了以各种名义微调楼市调控政策的阵线，期望让这个已经有点沉寂的市场能够重现生机。

This kind of situation that，Will the present economic downside understanding for monetary policy too tight，Just a skin deep conclusion。Monetary policy in the economic operation, though really can play an important role，But not the deciding factor，We still have to skip this layer screen，In addition to find the real cause。One cannot avoid the situation is，Has been more than two years of market regulation，This year began to appear a subtle change，On the one hand，House prices rising crazy momentum finally were contained，Many cities house prices fall appeared，But on the other hand，More and more local government joined to all kinds of nominal fine-tuning property market adjustment and control policies front，Expect to let this already have a little silence of the market can reproduce the vitality。

　　这种博弈深刻地说明，楼市的低迷已经让部分地方政府出现了担忧。这是因为，楼市曾经长期被地方政府作为拉动地方经济、增加政府财政收入的一个“龙头产业”加以扶持，但由于本轮楼市调控只注重压低房价，而未能借着经济结构调整改变楼市在经济结构中的这种龙头地位。因此，楼市先于其他行业承受了前期货币政策从紧的压力，并且由于其龙头地位的客观存在，对其他行业产生了辐射作用。而当货币政策开始转为宽松的时候，楼市也完全有可能最先享受到这种变化的“阳光雨露”。

This game that deep，The housing market downturn has let some local governments appeared worried。This is because，Housing has long by local governments, the local economy as a pull、Increase of government revenue“Leading industry”To support，But because this property market regulation only pay attention to lower prices，And through the readjustment of the economic structure to changes in the economic structure of the property market leading position。so，Prior to the other industry bear market the tight monetary policy of the pressure，And as a result of its leading position the objective existence，Other industry to produce the radiation effect。And when start to loose monetary policy，Property market also can enjoy the changes of the first“Sunshine dew or rain”。

　　央行连续降息，当然不是为了救楼市，但是，央行通过降低银行存款准备率、降息、逆回购等手段释放的资金，却不可能完全按照政策的意图进入该进的部门，而是极有可能再度进入楼市，从而给正处于困境中的楼市带来生机。一个月前推出的今年第一次降息已经昭示了这一点，这次降息举措推出后，实体经济依然没有太大起色，国家统计局公布的6月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.2%，再一次创下阶段新低，但是全国100个城市的新建住宅平均价格却比5月环比上涨0.05%，结束了2011年9月以来9个月的房价环比下跌趋势。从这种对比中已经可以看出货币流动的迹象，PMI不景气，说明企业开工不足的问题并没有解决，甚至更趋严重，而房价止跌回稳，则表明开发商通过各种渠道得到了资金支持，他们已经不再像前期那样急着压低房价抛售囤积的房源来渡过难关了。在一切都没有改变的情况下，目前的二次降息，其效果很可能会重复前一个月来的情景。

Central Banks cut interest rates for，Of course not to save in the sector，but，The central bank, by reducing the bank reserve ratio、Cut interest rates、Reverse repurchase of means of release of the funds，But can't completely according to the intention of the policy into this into the department，But most likely to get on the property ladder again，Thus to is in trouble in the housing market with life。A month before the launch of the first cut this year has discovered it，The cut rates after launch，The entity economy still is not too big improvement，National bureau of June manufacturing purchasing managers index（PMI）50.2%，Once again, a new low stage，But the country's 100 city of new residential average price is better than 5 y/y rose 0.05%，Over 2011 years since September 9 months of house prices annulus comparing trend down。From the comparison has can see signs of money flows，PMI recession，Explain the problem of insufficient enterprise construction and no solution，Even more hasten is serious，And house prices rose in reason，Indicates that the developers through various channels to get the financial support，They are no longer the hurry down like that house prices selling hoarding homes to tide over the difficulties。In all have not changed，The second to cut interest rates，The effect is very likely to repeat a month before the scene。

　　不可否认的是，楼市低迷已经成为本轮经济下行的“先知先觉”者，那么，当政府采取各种措施来保增长、稳增长的时候，楼市这个屡试不爽的行业很容易得到货币政策的眷顾。目前，由于货币政策已经进入放宽通道，这一定程度上改变了购房者对房价进一步下跌的预期，因此促成了楼市成交量在最近几个月出现可观上升。虽然在限购政策未改变的情况下，目前有条件购房的都在限购政策允许范围之内，但是其中仍有不少投资性购房需求，而由调控促成的房价下跌反而给这部分需求创造了一个低价入市的市场机会。很显然，央行的连续降息，正在形成使楼市重现生机的作用。

It is undeniable that the，The housing downturn has become this round of economic downside“clairvoyance”person，so，When the government has adopted various measures to protect growth、Steady growth，Property market this proven industry is very easy to get the favour of monetary policy。At present，Because monetary policy has into relaxing channel，This, to a certain extent, the person that buy a house to house prices change expectations of further to fall，Leading to the property market turnover in recent months appears considerable rise。Although in 限购 policy unchanged，There are conditions of purchase in 限购 policy allows range，But there are still many investment of pent-up demand，The regulation of falling house prices instead to give this part needs to create a low-cost entry market opportunities。obviously，The central bank's to slash interest rates，Make the market is forming a new lease on life role。

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　　周俊生

ZhouJunSheng