连续降息，贷款百万月供少298元，心理影响巨大，调控出现事实松动。楼市回暖将持续 To slash interest rates，BaiWanYue loans for less 298 yuan，Psychological impact huge，In fact loose regulation。Property market warms up will last

　　中国人民银行决定，自2012年7月6日起下调金融机构人民币存贷款基准利率。金融机构一年期存款基准利率下调0.25个百分点，一年期贷款基准利率下调0.31个百分点；其他各档次存贷款基准利率及个人住房公积金存贷款利率相应调整。

The people's bank of China decision，Since July 6, 2012, cut up the financial institutions benchmark interest rates。Financial institutions the 1-year benchmark deposit rate 0.25%，The benchmark one-year lending rate by 0.31%；Other each class the benchmark interest rates and individual housing accumulation fund loan rate adjusted accordingly。

　　自同日起，将金融机构贷款利率浮动区间的下限调整为基准利率的0.7倍。个人住房贷款利率浮动区间不作调整，金融机构要继续严格执行差别化的各项住房信贷政策，继续抑制投机投资性购房。

Since became effective，Will financial institutions loan interest rate band the lower limit of benchmark interest rate adjusted for 0.7 times。Personal housing loan interest rate floating interval is not made adjust，Financial institutions should continue to strictly carry out the policy of differentiation housing credit，Continue to restrain speculative investment the house。

降息前后的首套、二套房客户还款变化 Before and after the first set of cut interest rates、Two suites customer reimbursement changes

北京中原市场研究部总监 Beijing central plains market research department director张大伟 ZhangDaWei分析认为： Analyzed that：同样贷款百万20年，本次降息后，基准利率下，月供将再次减少148元，而在目前的85折下，贷款百万将减少月供112元每月。

The same loan millions of 20 years，After the cut，Benchmark interest rates，The month for the decrease of 148 yuan will be again，And in the current 85 fold，The loan will reduce the month for millions of 112 yuan per month。

　　最近1个多月的两次降息将使得贷款百万20年的购房者，基准利率下利息减少近300元每月。

Recent more than one month of two cuts will make loans a 20 years of the person that buy a house，The benchmark interest rate less interest nearly 300 yuan per month。

降息通道已经开启 楼市将获益最大 Channel is open property market will cut interest rates most to gain

　　已经明显升温的楼市，在再次降息的影响下难免出现再次的暖上加暖现象

Clearly warming in the housing market，Cut interest rates again in under the influence of the warm again appears unavoidably add warming phenomenon

　　6月，全国主要的54个城市，月内成交量达到了22.9套，再次延续了3月来的市场复苏。上半年累计成交突破百万套，达到107万套，同比11年同期的95.4万套将上涨12%。环比11年下半年的96.5万套也上涨了超过10%。 其中大部分城市均有上涨。5月来，深圳、南京、杭州、上海再现“千人购房”、“漏夜排队”现象，全国主要城市项目的销售情况均有好转，北京、上海、广州等城市的统计局数据也显示，1-5月的销售情况下同比明显好转。

June，The national major 54 city，Month volume reached 22.9 sets，Again the march to continue the market recovery。In the first half of transactions in total，A level of 1.07 million，Compared to the same period in 11 954000 sets of 12% higher。November 11 years second half of the year 965000 has risen more than 10% of。 Most of the city are rising。Five months，shenzhen、nanjing、hangzhou、Shanghai reproduce“One thousand people buy”、“LouYe line up”phenomenon，Major cities in China project sales are better，Beijing、Shanghai、Guangzhou city bureau of statistics data also showed，1-5 month under the sales year-on-year improved obviously。

　　对于购房者来说：目前市场情况已经难以避免会出现一定程度的恐慌，入市的积极性会继续提高，调控已经到了关键时期，房价难以再跌，反而量价齐涨的可能性非常大。虽然各部委一直重申调控继续，但是松动的信贷政策使得购房者难以再期待价格下调回归合理。

For the person that buy a house is：At present market situation has been difficult to avoid will appear a certain degree of panic，The enthusiasm of the market will continue to improve，Regulation has come to a critical period，House prices to fall again，But all the possibility of quantity and price rise is very big。Although ministries has repeatedly regulation continue，But loose credit policy makes the person that buy a house to return to again cut the price of reasonable。

　　外需萎缩带给中国经济非常大的负面影响。近期避险心理重现，中国面临着资本外流的挑战。经济不景气影响稳定，09-10年为了稳定微调房地产。而12年为了稳定度过经济的不景气。

The economy was shrinking economy to China big negative influence。Recent hedge psychological again，China is faced with the challenge of capital outflows。The economic recession affect stability，09-10 years in order to stabilize fine-tuning real estate。And 12 years spent in order to stabilize the sluggish economy。

　　对于房价来说：调控已经事实松动，微调房地产，这给房地产再次带来了喘息的良机。地方政府加快了预调微调的步伐，银行间流动性持续好转，可能预期的信贷政策微调幅度超过预期，是对于实体经济的惜贷情绪仍存。政策仍存在进一步宽松的空间。下半年再现数次降息、下调存准的可能性依然非常，楼市资金面将明显好转。

Prices for it：Regulation has the fact is loose，Fine-tuning real estate，This brought again to real estate breathing this opportunity。The local government to speed up the pace of fine-tuning the preset，Improving between bank liquidity，Probably expected credit policy fine-tuning range than expected，For the real economy is arisen mood still in existence。There still further loose policy space。The second half of representation to cut interest rates several times、Cut the possibility of deposit must still very，The financing side property market will be improved obviously。

房价再跌的可能性接近于0 House prices fell again the possibility of close to 0

　　房地产市场从3月份开始的成交量比较乐观，特别是5-6月的主要城市全面复苏，对价格的支撑作用也已经体现，房价再跌的可能性接近于零。但是因为新开工全面触底的影响， 7、8月淡季推盘量较小，全年成交量最高点在 9、10 、11月出现的可能性非常大。整体下半年的市场成交量将会超过上半年，在调控微松的影响下，恐慌性入市量是可以支持目前的成交量继续放大20%左右，但恢复09-10年高量的可能性不存在。

The real estate market from the beginning march in the volume of sales is more optimistic，Especially on June 5-the main urban comprehensive recovery，On the price of supporting function also has been reflected，The possibility of house prices fall again close to zero。But because the new start the influence of the overall hit bottom， 7、August off-season push set small quantity，Annual turnover in 9 high、10 、The possibility of November appear very big。In the second half of the whole market turnover will be more than the first half of the year，In the regulation under the influence of the loose，Panic amount can be to support the current entry in the volume of sales continue to enlarge around 20%，But recovery 09-10 years high amount of possibility does not exist。

　　本轮成交复苏非普遍性，目前市场虽有松动，但是限购、限贷依然指向投资需求入市，其中部分可能有途径入市，但是难以支撑全面回暖。虽量价必然同涨，但价格上涨幅度有限。入市项目定价依然会比较谨慎。而且一旦出现暴涨，不排除还有政策打压。

This clinch a deal the universality recovery，Although the market at present is loose，But 限购、Credit limit still point to investment demand market，Some of these may have way market，But difficult to support full thaw。Although price volume inevitable with price rises，But prices are limited。Entering the market project will still be very cautious in pricing。And once shot up，Don't rule out and policy suppressed。

　　购房者对购房行为的决策除了居住需求外，最主要的是对房价的预期。而在我国这么多年房地产发展的过程中，影响房地产价格的主要是经济调控政策，而调控政策中影响力最大的信贷政策。信贷额度及利率水平可以说是房地产市场的风向标。

The person that buy a house to buying a house behavior decision-making in addition to the housing needs，The main is expected to house prices。But in the our country so many years of real estate development in the process，Influence the real estate price is mainly economic control policy，And the most influential in the control policy credit policy。The credit limit and interest rate level can be said to be the leader of the real estate market。

　　从今年来看，信贷政策相比11年已经有了非常明显的松动。经济发展的不力，使得降息的通道已经打开，下半年继续降息的可能性非常大。

From this year to see，Credit policy than 11 years have already very obvious loose。Lack of economic development，Make the channel has been open to cut interest rates，The second half of the possibility of another interest is very big。

　　目前不管是中国经济还是全球经济均依然不乐观，央行下调贷款利率和存款准备金率意在刺激整个经济环境，维持平稳上涨，这对大部分开发商来说是利好消息。目前整体房地产市场的资金链依然比较紧张，而贷款利率下调对极缺钱的开发商来说是很好的消息，意味着从银行贷款的利率更低了，融资的成本降低了。房企最困难的时间已经过去。

Now whether China's economy or the global economy are still not optimistic，The central bank cut loan interest rate and the deposit reserve in stimulating the economy demotion environment，Maintain rose steadily，The good news for most developers is。At present the whole of real estate fund chains still more nervous，And loan interest rate by a lack of money for the developers it is a good news，Means that from bank loans more low interest rates，Financing cost reduction。The most difficult time room enterprises have in the past。

信贷影响： Credit influence：目前各家银行贷款额度并不充足，出现低于85折乃至8折的可能性暂时不打，反而可能会因为存贷差的减小而减少折扣的可能性，但是降息对购房者的心理影响将非常非常大。楼市将在3季度出现难以抑制的回暖。

Currently Banks loans is not enough，Appear less than 85 fold and even the possibility of 8 fold the temporary not play，It may be because of the reduction of poor and reduce the possibility of discount，But the psychological impact of the person that buy a house to cut interest rates will be very, very big。Housing market in three quarter appear uncontrollable thaw。