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房企信用评级屡遭调降疲弱需求牵连上游钢铁“连坐”--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-07-17

  近期以来,多家房地产企业的信用评级纷纷被国际评级机构下调,“垃圾级”信用评级不断涌现。与此同时,与房地产业息息相关的上游钢铁行业亦受到评级机构的特别“关注”,有评级机构称,“行业状况恶化将对钢铁制造商构成挑战”。

Since the recent,Several real estate enterprise's credit rating international rating agencies have been cut,“Junk status”Credit rating emerge。At the same time,The real estate industry is closely linked with the upstream steel industry also will receive the rating agencies special“attention”,A rating agency says,“A deterioration in the industry will pose a challenge to the steel manufacturers”。

  房企“垃圾级”涌现 Room enterprises“Junk status”emerging

  近期房市成交量有所回暖,但一些企业的日子却不见得好过。《第一财经日报》记者发现, 一段时间以来,多家房企信用评级都被下调。

The recent housing market volume have warmed,But some enterprise day but not better。《The first financial daily》Reporter discovery, For a long time now,Several room enterprises have been cut credit rating。

  昨日,标准普尔宣布将盛高置地(控股)有限公司(下称“盛高置地”)评级下调至“B-”,并将优先无担保债券的债务评级由“B-”下调至“CCC+”。

yesterday,Standard &poor's announced it will put running high(holding)Co., LTD(Said the“Filled running high”)Rating down to“B-”,And will give priority to unsecured bond debt rating by“B-”Down to“ccC +”。

  在标普的信用等级标准中,AAA、AA、A、BBB级别是信誉好、履约风险小的债券,为投资级;而BB、B、CCC、CC、C及D为投机级。这意味着,盛高置地的评级级别已被拉入投机级,履约风险极高。

In the s&p credit rating standard,aaa、aa、A、bbB level is good credit、The performance of the small risk bonds,For investment grade;And bb、B、ccC、cc、C and D level for speculation。This means that,High level of rating and also has been pulled into a speculative grade,High performance risk。

  下调信用评级意味着这些房企的经营状况已不被看好;同时,在经营困难的同时,融资的成本将进一步提高,融资难度加大。

Cut credit rating means the room the operations of enterprises has been the underdog;At the same time,In the business difficult at the same time,The cost of financing will be further improved,Increased difficulties of financing。

  标普称,因房地产销售疲软以及可能违反境外银行贷款的条款,盛高置地面临不断加剧的流动性压力。这种压力反映在公司近期的盈利预警、资产处置以及要求债券持有人修改优先无担保债券的部分契约条款上。标普认为,盛高置地的财务和风险控制能力遭到削弱。

S&p says,For real estate sales are soft and overseas bank loans may be violating the terms,High and rising liquidity also face pressure。The pressure of the company in the near future is reflected in the profit warning、Asset disposal and require modified unsecured bondholders priority on the terms of the contract of the bonds。S&p think,The financial and trading and high risk control capability weakening。

  盛高置地不是孤例,知名房地产企业的评级近期遭遇下调的现象并不鲜见。

And also high not isolated cases,Famous real estate enterprises in the phenomenon of recent ratings cut is not rare。

  7月10日,标普将中资房地产开发商世茂房地产控股有限公司的长期企业信用评级从“BB”下调至“BB-”,并将优先无担保债券的债务评级从“BB-”下调至“B+”。标普称未来12个月对世茂控股评级进行上调的可能性不大。

July 10,,S&p will Chinese real estate developers shimao property holdings Co., LTD's long-term enterprise credit rating from“bb”Down to“bb-”,And will give priority to unsecured bond debt rating from“bb-”Down to“B +”。S&p says the next 12 months to shimao holding rating on the rise is unlikely。

  7月4日,标普将中国地下商城开发商及运营商和商业控股有限公司(人和商业)的长期企业信用评级从“B”下调至“B-”,并将优先无担保债券的债务评级从“B”下调至“B-”。

On July 4,,S&p will China's underground mall developer and operator and commercial holdings Co., LTD(And commercial)Long-term enterprise credit rating from“B”Down to“B-”,And will give priority to unsecured bond debt rating from“B”Down to“B-”。

  前段时间问题不断的绿城集团亦被标普调至CCC+。

Some time ago to question has green city group also marked PuDiao to ccC +。

  此间,也有多家房地产企业被列入负面观察名单,包括恒大地产、融创控股等。

here,Also have several real estate enterprise was listed in the negative watch list,Including evergrande real estate、Melts and holding。

  值得注意的是,在同一时期,穆迪公司也下调了多家中资房地产企业的信用评级。

Note the,In the same period,Moody's also cut several Chinese real estate enterprise credit rating。

  房地产缘何成降级灾区?

Why real estate into relegation disaster area?

  中国房地产行业缘何成为国际评级机构降级的重灾区?

Why Chinese real estate industry to become the international rating agencies downgraded the worst-hit areas?

  这些被降级的房地产企业基本都是大型知名房企,此前有在境外银行贷款或发债的融资经历,一些公司还曾参与境外上市。降级的房地产企业过去几年多数保持过快速成长,但在相关政策与昔日发生较大变化的时候,市场投机需求明显下降,商业地产的需求也有所降温。标普在谈到一家房地产企业被降级的原因时称,销售的持续疲弱影响其资金流动性。

These are the real estate enterprise basic all relegation of large scale and famous room is high,There have been overseas bank loans or translated in the financing of experience,Some companies also participated in the overseas market。Relegation real estate enterprise over the past few years most keep fast growth,But in the related policy and former great changes have taken place,Market speculation needs to decline significantly,Commercial real estate needs also has cooled。S&p said of a real estate enterprise was the cause of the relegation said,The weak sales continued influence its liquidity。

  而此时一些逆势购买项目扩大负债的房地企业也遭遇评级下调。“由于其大规模建设和潜在进一步扩张而产生的持续融资需求,我们认为其降低负债水平的空间有限。”这是标普对一家大型房地产企业的降级评述。另一家房地产企业在此时大举买下多个房地产项目表示要承担所购项目的负债,因此评级亦被列入负面观察名单。

While some contrarian purchase project expanding the real estate enterprise with debt rating fall。“Because of its large scale construction and further expansion potential has been financing needs,We think the lower debt levels of limited space。”This is the s&p at a large real estate enterprises are relegated。The other a real estate company at this time to buy more aggressively in real estate project said to take on the project for the liabilities,So rating also was listed in the negative watch list。

  同时,还有房地产企业因为销售和应收账款持续疲弱的同时,获得银行贷款方面也存在问题,因此遭遇评级下调。

At the same time,And real estate enterprise for sales and accounts receivable continued weakness at the same time,A bank loan problems also exist in,So encounter rating fall。

  钢铁业备受关注 Concern about the steel industry

  众所周知,与房地产行业密切相关的另一大产业是钢铁行业,其也是宏观经济的支柱产业。多年来,这一行业因产能过剩、市场分散度高而受诟病,但是,直到现在,这个老毛病依然被重点提及。

As is known to all,And the real estate industry closely related to one another big industry is a steel industry,It is also the macroeconomic pillar industry。For many years,The industry because of excess capacity、Market by high dispersion reviled,but,Until now,The same old still mentioned by the key。

  标普分析师韩相润表示:“钢铁需求的持续疲软,特别是作为钢铁业主要下游行业的中国房地产业增长大幅放缓,以及产能扩大的计划可能将在未来至少十二个月内加剧供大于求的局面。”

S&p analysts Korea phase embellish said:“Steel demand remains weak,Especially as a main downstream industry of China steel real estate industry growth slowed sharply,And its production capacity plan might be in the future will be at least 12 months supply has exceeded demand by the situation。”

  “需求放缓可能将令中国钢铁价格继续疲弱,甚至可能进一步走低。”标普预计中国2012年钢铁需求量将增长4%~6%,而2007至2011年间钢铁需求量年平均增长10.7%。标准普尔评级服务在近期发布的题为《中国钢铁业展望受到糟糕盈利能力和产能过剩的压制》的报告中如此表述。

“Slowing demand may be China's steel prices will continue to weaken,May even down further。”The s&p 2012 is expected to China steel demand is expected to increase 4% ~ 6%,But between 2007 and 2011 in steel demand grew by an average 10.7%。Standard &poor's, a rating services, recently released in the title《China's steel by looking bad profitability and excess capacity repression》Report so expression。

  “在需求降低的大背景下,产能过剩的老毛病将会被放大,小企业将面临洗牌,而大企业也不会毫发无损。”一位钢铁行业分析师对记者表示,“较低的利润率和较高的经营杠杆将在未来几年内损害中国钢铁业的盈利能力。”去年以来,作为钢铁行业的钢贸行业已受到这个行业整体下行的牵连,资金链断裂的“事故”不断。

“In the background of the lower demand,Excess capacity of the same old will be enlarged,Small businesses will face shuffle,And the big enterprise will not injured。”A steel industry analysts told reporters,“The lower margins and higher operating leverage in the next few years China's steel industry damage profitability。”Since last year,As the steel industry steel trading industry has been the industry overall downside of involvement,The capital chain rupture“accident”constantly。

  评级机构穆迪也把关注的目光投向钢铁行业进行“诊断”。7月9日穆迪发布报告称,中国的采购经理人指数(PMI)下滑,加上中国经济增长放缓,同时欧洲需求减少,意味着中国内地对钢铁的需求将由2011年超过8%的同比增长率减少至2012年平均4%~5%。

Moody's, a rating agency also put attention vision steel industry“diagnosis”。July 9 moody's report says,China's purchasing managers' index(PMI)decline,With China's economic growth,While European demand decreases,Means of mainland China steel demand by 2011 will be an annual rate of more than 8% in 2012 to reduce the average 4% ~ 5%。

  假如中国经济进一步放缓,穆迪称,其评过信用级别的钢铁企业中,中国东方(Ba2稳定)及宝钢(A3稳定)将受到最大影响。其实,在今年5月,穆迪已经对中国东方的信用评级进行过实质性下调,从Ba1调到Ba2。

If China's economy slowing further,Moody's said,The evaluation of a credit level of steel enterprise,China Eastern(Ba2 stability)And baosteel(A3 stability)Will be most affected。In fact,In may this year,Moody's already on the east China's credit rating a substantial cut,From Ba1 to transfer to the Ba2。

  虽然房地产和钢铁行业的信用评级遭遇下调压力,但采访中记者发现,其实这两大产业本身就存在调整的内在需要,加之中国经济目前处于转型之际,所临阵痛或属必然。“中国经济虽然缓慢下行,但依然是令人羡慕的速度,目前这不会对中国的主权信用评级造成影响。”标普大中华区总裁周彬在接受本报记者采访时如此表示。

Although real estate and iron and steel industries credit rating encounter downward pressure,But in an interview with reporters found,In fact the two big industry itself there is the intrinsic need for adjustment,And now in the China's economic transformation,The pain or the of inevitable。“China's economic slowly to the downside,But is still an enviable speed,Now it won't do China's sovereignty credit rating the influence。”S&p greater China region ZhouBin President in accepting our newspaper reporter to interview said。



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