房价地价齐涨下半年反弹幅度或有限 House prices rose by the second half of all land price rebound or limited

　　刘展超 金思屿

Liu exhibition super JinSiYu

　　近来一些非官方机构的报告显示，今年6月份房价和地价均出现了环比上升迹象，楼市反弹似乎已成事实。按照日程安排，国家统计局将在18日上午发布“70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告”，届时外界可通过该“官方报告”研判下半年的楼市走向。

Recently, some unofficial agencies report shows，In June this year the price of the house prices and all appear to rise annulus signs，Housing rebound seems to already into the facts。According to the schedule，The national bureau of statistics will be in 18 the morning release“In 70 major city residential sales price the monthly report”，When the outside world can be through this“The official report”Judge to the second half of the property market。

　　随着一些城市楼市成交的回暖，房地产市场是否迎来拐点了？一旦房价反弹，中央调控是否还会有新的政策出台？

With some city property market clinch a deal of buoyancy，Whether real estate market in the inflection point？Once the house prices rebound，The central control if there will be a new policies？

地价房价全面反弹 Land prices overall rebound

　　在信贷环境趋于放松、房产刚需群体入市等因素影响下，国内热点城市楼市5月份成交开始回暖，并且一直延续至今。

In the credit environment tend to relax、House property just need to group under the influence of factors such as the entry，Domestic hot city property market began to return to clinch a deal in May，And has continued ever since。

　　如北京市场，第一太平戴维斯研究及顾问咨询部董事王琼对《第一财经日报(微博)》表示，今年第二季度北京一手住宅整体市场出现了较为明显的反转，供给与成交均大幅增长，当期新增供给环比增长78.7%至250万平方米，同时成交面积达到340万平方米，环比上涨了86.2%。

Such as Beijing market，The first peace Davis research and consulting WangQiong director of consultants《The first financial daily(Micro bo)》said，The second quarter this year Beijing a residential whole market appeared more apparent reversal，Supply and clinch a deal are expanded significantly，Current new supply growth 78.7% month-on-month to 2.5 million square meters，At the same time clinch a deal the area 3.4 million square meters，Annulus comparing rose 86.2%。

　　成交增加之后，价格也随之看涨。中国指数研究院(微博)(下称“中指院”)数据显示，6月份全国100个城市(新建)住宅平均价格为8688元/平方米，环比5月上涨0.05%，结束自2011年9月以来的连续9个月环比下跌态势，其中45个城市环比上涨。

Clinch a deal after increasing，The price also then bullish。China index academy(Micro bo)(Said the“Middle finger court”)Data shows，June in over 100 cities(new)Residential average price for 8688 yuan/square metre，November 5 month rose 0.05%，End since September 2011 nine consecutive drop y/y trend，Including 45 a city rising annulus。

　　土地价格也出现了回升迹象。中指院“中国300城市土地市场交易情报(2012年1~6月)”显示，6月份300个城市土地平均溢价率为10%，创下今年的新高。而今年前六个月全国300个城市土地平均溢价率仅仅为5%。

Land prices also appeared picks up signs。Middle finger court“Urban land market of China's 300 intelligence(2012 1 ~ 6 months)”shows，In June 300 the city land average premium rate is 10%，In this year's highs。Now six months ago in over 300 cities land average premium rate only 5%。

　　个别高价地块也开始出现。7月10日，经过46轮竞价和326轮回购房面积的竞拍，北京万柳地块最终以总价26.3亿元被中赫置地拿下，溢价率超过了40%，折合楼面地价超过4万元/平方米。

Individual high plot also begins to appear。July 10,，After bidding and 326 rebirth 46 round of the area that buy a bid，Beijing wanliu plot to price 2.63 billion yuan is finally in trading Hector had，Premium rate of over 40%，Into the floor more than 40000 yuan/m2 land price。

　　这也带动了北京住宅用地市场的升温。7月17日，北京再度出让几宗住宅用地，其中中冶置业和北京五建联合体以22亿元且配建4700平方米保障房拿下大兴旧宫地块，楼面价超过15918元/平方米，溢价率也达到了45%。

It also contributed to the Beijing housing land market of warming。July 17,，Again a few cases of the Beijing housing land，Among them ZhongYe home buyers and Beijing WuJian association with 2.2 billion yuan and 4700 square meters PeiJian guarantee room scored JiuGong daxing plots，Floor price more than 15918 yuan/square metre，Premium rate was 45%。

此番地价再度上涨，是否会再次与房价形成互涨潮？ This "land price rise again，If house prices again and form mutual high tide？

　　王琼表示，万柳地块地理位置特殊，导致价格较高，但仍有其合理性，不过它给整个住宅市场确实带来了一些刺激，示范效应较强。

WangQiong said，There are special location of plot，Lead to higher prices，But still has its rationality，But it to the whole housing market does bring some excitement，Demonstration effect is stronger。

　　据媒体报道，万柳地王出现后，周边二手房价已经出现了涨价情况。

According to media reports，There appears after you，Peripheral second-hand house prices has been a price。

　　不过，主管全国土地供应的国土资源部13日表示，虽然进入5月份后，因住房用地流标流拍相对较多，一些城市在第二季度末相对集中推出商服用地，其中一些优质地块受到投资者追捧，引发社会广泛关注。但土地市场大幅溢价、地王频现的市场基本面并不存在。

but，Director of national land supply of land and resources 13 said，Although into after in May，Because of the housing land flow standard flow pat relatively more，Some cities in the second quarter, rolled out at the end of the ShangFu land relative，Some of these high quality plot receive investor demand，Trigger social widespread concern。But the land market a premium、To WangPinXian market fundamentals does not exist。

　　“这些地块主要分布在北京、上海、广州等重点城市，且以商服用地为主，主要是结构性和区域性的市场波动，值得密切关注，但还不能构成市场全面回暖的基础，对市场整体格局特别是对住房用地难以产生实质性影响。”国土部称。

“The plot is mainly distributed in Beijing、Shanghai、Guangzhou city and so on，And with the ShangFu land primarily，Main is structural and regional market fluctuations，Deserves closer attention，But also don't make comprehensive market warms up in the foundation，To market the whole pattern of housing land difficult to produce especially substantial influence。”Homeland department says。

开发商提价能否持续？ Developers can consistently raise price？

　　2009年楼市小阳春之后，房价开始飞速上涨，恐慌性购房入场，而近期楼市成交增加之后，一些楼盘也开始提价。2009年的情况又要重复上演吗？

2009 market after spring，House prices started rising，The panic that buy a house，And the recent market clinch a deal after increase，Some buildings also started to raise prices。2009 years and to repeat on？

　　王琼表示，今年和2009年有一个相同点，都是在五六月份左右成交量就突然上来了，但两者也有很大不同，一是2009年是全民都在买房，而今年主要是刚需群体在买房；二是信贷松紧的程度不同，2009年政策上是鼓励买房，银行房贷可以给七折利率的优惠，但现在整个货币宽松度其实不如2009年，对购房者的实际信贷支持不够。

WangQiong said，This year and in 2009 there was a similarities，In June or may suddenly come up about a volume，But they also have very different，One is the 2009 is in the house，This year is mainly to just buy a house in groups；Two is to credit the degree of elasticity is different，2009 policy is encouraged to buy a house，Bank mortgage can give a seventy percent discount rate，But now the whole currency loose in fact not equal degrees in 2009，To the person that buy a house of the actual credit support is not enough。