中新社北京7月15日电 题：中国楼市步入复杂敏感关口 调控再临多重考验

Arriving on July 15, Beijing problem：China property market into complex sensitive border control return multiple test

　　中新社记者 阮煜琳

China RuanYuLin reporters

　　中央多次表态“房地产调控绝不放松”，地方政府频频微调政策“松绑”楼市。今年上半年，在加剧博弈中，中国房地产市场完成筑底反弹，已经跌入谷底的住房交易从“寒冬”中迅速回暖。下半年，在保增长、控房价的艰巨任务下，中国房地产市场再次踏入敏感关口，楼市调控也将呈现前所未有的复杂局面。

The Times said“Real estate regulation never relax”，The local government frequently fine-tuning policy“easing”Property market。In the first half of this year，Increased the game，China's real estate market of complete build rebound，Has fallen into the bottom of the trade from housing“winter”Rapid thaw in。The second half，The growth in、House prices under control of the task，China's real estate market into sensitive pass again，Property market regulation also will present an unprecedented complicated situation。

　　今年1、2月，经历一年多“史上最严厉”调控的中国房地产市场住宅交易量跌入谷底。3月份开始，在信贷放松、地方微调楼市调控政策的刺激下，部分房地产市场出现了较为明显的复苏迹象。以北京为例，今年1月住宅成交仅为7000余套，5月份住宅成交迅速突破2万套，6月份超过了2.5万套。5月份，北京、广州、上海等重点城市住房交易量创下今年最高水平。

1 this year、February，Experience more than one year“History's most severe”Regulation of China's real estate market trading house fall to the floor。Beginning march，In the credit to relax、Local fine-tuning property market adjustment and control policies under the stimulus，Part of the real estate market appears more obvious signs of recovery。For example Beijing，January clinch a deal for more than 7000 residential only sets，In may of 20000 rapid breakthroughs in residential clinch a deal，In June, more than 25000 sets。In may，Beijing、guangzhou、Shanghai and other major cities in the highest level of housing volume this year。

　　在成交量连续回升的情况下，房价开始回稳。非官方数据显示，6月全国100个城市新建住宅平均价格环比5月上涨0.05%，结束了自2011年9月以来的连续9个月环比下跌的态势。国家统计局公布的5月份70个大中城市新建商品住宅价格数据也显示出跌幅收窄、价格回稳趋势。

In the volume of continuous rise，Stabilising prices have started to。Unofficial data shows，June in over 100 cities new residence average price annulus comparing may up 0.05%，Over since September 2011 nine consecutive y/y falling trend。The national bureau of statistics released in May of 70 major cities new commodity residential house price data also showed a fall narrow、Rose in price trend。

　　北京大学房地产研究所所长陈国强接受中新社记者采访时说，今年上半年，中央坚持房地产调控的基调、力度和方向不变，地方政府出台的微调政策多次被叫停。同时，中央强调稳增长，近期接连采取“降准”、降息等措施，楼市调控的着力点已经发生变化，从此前的抑制投资投机性需求，转为通过执行差别化信贷政策等，保障购房刚性需求，支持首次置业。

Beijing university of institute of real estate Chen guoqiang accept arriving reporters，In the first half of this year，Central to the tone of real estate regulation、Strength and direction invariable，The local government on the introduction of the fine-tuning policy have been stopped many times。At the same time，The central emphasis steady growth，Recent continued to take“Drop must”、Measures to cut interest rates，The focal point of market regulation has been changing，From previous inhibit investment the speculative demand，To execute credit policy by menas，Security purchase rigid demand，Support first-time home buyers。

　　“本轮楼市调控正面临外部环境与宏观政策面的变化，伴随着多地政策微调，市场博弈加剧，市场预期波动，使调控局面趋于复杂。”陈国强说。

“This property market regulation is facing external environment and the macroeconomic policy changes，With more policy fine-tuning，Market game aggravate，Market expectations fluctuations，To control the situation becomes complicated。”Said Chen guoqiang。

　　陈国强说，在市场层面，上半年，开发企业采取以价换量的销售策略，部分地区楼市回暖。市场的表现是成交量的回升，部分楼盘价格上调，目前市场回暖的态势日趋明显，市场探底的特征也日益明显，已经出现市场底部。

Said Chen guoqiang，In the market level，In the first half，Development enterprise take to change the price of sales strategy，Parts of the property market buoyancy。Market performance is volume to bounce back，Part of the estate price rises，At present the market warms up in the situation has become increasingly evident，The agent of the characteristics and market is more and more obvious，Had appeared market bottom。

　　“今年年初，当时政府强调政策不放松、不加码，政策的底部特征明显，政策上认可和允许某些地方微调的作法，已经是政策的见底。但是政策见底不意味着市场见底。”陈国强说，今年二季度以来的市场表现可以看出，市场探底已经基本完成，部分地区住房成交量增加，部分楼盘价格逆势上升。

“Earlier this year，At that time the government insists that policy not to relax、Don't beat，The bottom of the policy features obvious，Policy and allow some places by fine-tuning of practice，Is the policy see bottom。But policy see bottom don't mean market see bottom。”Said Chen guoqiang，Since the second quarter of this year the market performance can be seen，The market has been basically completed agent，Parts of the house turnover increased，Part of the building against the price rise。

　　陈国强分析说，目前，房地产行业面临更复杂的调控局面，市场形态没有本质变化。首先，房地产调控依然从紧、从严，房地产调控的基调不变，中央仍然坚持毫不动摇地调控房地产的政策，抑制投资投机性购房需求。

Chen guoqiang analysis said，At present，The real estate industry will face more complex control of the situation，Market the form is not essential change。first，Real estate regulation still tight、strictly，Real estate regulation fundamental key unchanged，The central still insist on unswervingly control policy of real estate，Inhibition of speculative investment the pent-up demand。

　　其次，从市场的供求关系上来看，开发企业高库存格局不变，开发企业仍将面临去库存的现实问题，后续新增的房源比较可观，制约了开发商的涨价和房地产企业的市场选择。

second，From a market perspective of supply and demand，Development enterprise high inventory structure remains the same，Development enterprise will still face to the reality of the inventory，Subsequent new homes is considerable，Restricted the developers prices and real estate enterprise market choice。

　　第三，由于开发企业面临着现实的资金压力，虽然楼市的旺销在一定程度上能够缓解资金负债，但是高负债的资金压力仍然存在，开发商市场策略仍然是“以价换量”，而不是涨价。

The third，Due to the development of enterprises face the reality financial pressure，Although the cheapest end of the market in a certain extent, to relieve debt capital，But high debt financial pressure still exists，Developers market strategy is still“To change the price of”，Rather than prices。

　　陈国强提醒，今年下半年，政策上仍将保持高压态势，从严调控楼市。今年年底前，尤其是二、三季度，是企业的集中还贷期，开发商还有资金压力，市场要有清醒的判断，价格还要以价换量，将稳中有降，使成交量保持稳定。目前市场不存在价格暴涨基础，购房者应避免恐慌性入市。

Chen guoqiang remind，The second half of this year，Policy will remain high pressure situation，Strictly control property market。Before the end of this year，Especially the、Three quarters of，Is the enterprise concentration of loan payments，Developers and financial pressure，The market to a sober judgment，Even with price is the price change，Will stability have fall，Make volume remain stable。At present the market does not exist soaring prices for the foundation，The purchaser should avoid panic market。

　　业内专家提醒，稳增长的政策微调，特别是信贷政策出现变化，客观上会助推房地产市场的回暖。为了防止房价出现反弹，预计下半年房地产调控政策仍将维持稳中趋紧态势，抑制不合理需求的大方向不会变化。中央政府将要求地方政府继续严格实施各项政策。如果房价出现反复，仍可能进一步出台限制性政策。

The expert inside course of study warns，Steady growth of fine-tuning，Especially credit policy appears to change，Objective of the real estate market will boost warmed。In order to prevent prices rebounded，The second half of real estate is expected to control policy will remain steady tightening in the situation，Control unreasonable demand of the roads will not change。The central government will require governments to continue to place strict enforcement policies。If house prices appeared again and again，Still may be further issued restrictive policy。