7月18日上海易居房地产研究院出炉了《7月份新建商品住宅价格指数研究报告》，报告指出，6月份70个大中城市新建商品住宅价格比上月上升了0.02%，房价连跌8个月后，首次出现正增长，随着金融信贷环境的逐渐宽松，易居房地产研究院预计今年下半年，房价可能会缓慢回升。

July 18, Shanghai enjoysmart real estate research institute may《In July, new commodity residential house price index research report》，The report points out that，June 70 major cities new commodity residential house prices rose by 0.02% last month，House prices fell even 8 months later，Positive growth for the first time，With the financial credit environment gradually free，Enjoysmart is expected to real estate research institute in the second half of this year，House prices may be slow to bounce back。

一、70个大中城市新建商品住宅价格环比指数止跌微涨 a、In 70 major cities new commodity residential house price index closed up month-on-month reason

　　2012年6月份，与上月相比，70个大中城市中，价格下降的城市有21个，持平的城市有24个，上涨的城市有25个。环比价格上涨的城市中，涨幅均未超过0.6%。与上月相比，价格下降的城市减少22个，价格持平的城市增加3个，价格上涨的城市增加19个，价格环比上涨的城市增多，房价呈现筑底完成迹象。

June 2012，Compared with last month，In 70 major cities，The price of the decline of the city have 21，The city has a flat 24，The rise of the city has 25。Annulus comparing prices in the city，Or have not more than 0.6%。Compared with last month，The price of the decline of the city to reduce 22，The price of the city as another 3，Rising prices increased the city，The price rise more city projects，House prices built on the signs to complete。

　　房价同比下跌的城市比上月增加11个，依然是金华、宁波、杭州、温州等长三角沿海城市价格下降幅度较大。价格仍保持同比上涨的城市数量继续下降，易居方面预计下半年内，将会看到更多的城市价格同比止涨。

House prices fell last month the year-on-year increase than city 11，Is still the jinhua、ningbo、hangzhou、Wenzhou corolla triangle coastal cities prices fell to a larger extent。The prices remain the year-on-year increase the number of cities continue to fall，In the second half is expected to easily in within，Will see more city year-on-year check up the price。

二、环比增幅已经止跌反涨，同比降幅正在筑底 two、Annulus comparing growth has the reason rise，The year-on-year drop are built

　　1、70个大中城市价格环比综合指数降幅触底、同比综合指数降幅正在筑底

1、In 70 major cities month-on-month drop prices composite index hit bottom、Year-on-year drop is the composite index build

　　2012年6月份，70个大中城市新建商品住宅价格环比综合指数为100.02，即新建商品住宅价格比上月上升了0.02%，房价连跌8个月后，首次出现正增长，随着金融信贷环境的逐渐宽松，易居房地产研究院预计今年下半年，房价可能会缓慢回升。

June 2012，In 70 major cities new commodity residential house price comprehensive index of 100.02 annulus，That new commodity residential house prices rose by 0.02% last month，House prices fell even 8 months later，Positive growth for the first time，With the financial credit environment gradually free，Enjoysmart is expected to real estate research institute in the second half of this year，House prices may be slow to bounce back。

　　2012年6月份，70个大中城市新建商品住宅同比综合指数为98.60，即新建商品住宅价格比去年同期下降了1.40%，同比综合指数连续4个月下跌，且降幅持续扩大，预计下跌趋势将一直持续到年底，但下半年将进入降幅筑底。

June 2012，In 70 major cities new commodity residential house comprehensive index of 98.60 year-on-year，That new commodity residential house prices fell 1.40% from the same period last year，Year-on-year composite index fell for four months，Drop and continue to expand，Expected trend down will continue until the end of the year，But in the second half of the drop into the bottom of the building。

　　2012年6月份，70个大中城市二手住宅价格环比综合指数为100.09，即二手住宅价格比上月上涨0.09%，这是自2011年8月以来，首次出现环比正增长，事实上从2012年1月开始，降幅就开始持续收窄。易居方面认为，此轮降幅明显已于2011年11－12月触底，预计下半年价格将会保持上行态势。

June 2012，In 70 major cities second-hand housing price comprehensive index of 100.09 annulus，Secondhand house price is up 0.09% last month，This is since August 2011，First appeared annulus comparing positive growth，In fact from January 2012，Start by continuous narrow。Enjoysmart thinks，This round of decline has obvious in 2011 November and December hit bottom，The second half expected prices will remain upward trend。

　　2012年6月份，70个大中城市二手住宅价格同比综合指数为98.00，即二手住宅价格比上月下降2.00%，二手住宅价格于今年1月开始出现同比下跌，目前已经连跌6个月，降幅仍在扩大，但态势已经放缓，正在构筑跌幅底部。

June 2012，In 70 major cities second-hand housing prices up comprehensive index of 98.00，Secondhand house price is down 2.00% last month，Second-hand housing prices in January year-on-year fall in，At present already shut down six months，Drop in expanding still，But the situation has been slow，Fall is building at the bottom。

三、政策变化对于未来房价的影响 three、The policy change for the influence of the future house prices

　　上海易居房地产研究院副院长杨红旭指出，7月7日，温总理在江苏视察时表示：决不允行房价反弹。但依上述数据，房价已经出现止跌反弹的苗头。在这种情况下，国家出台新一轮调控政策的可能性急剧增大。但鉴于经济稳增长的压力也很大，此时不宜过度打压房地产市场。两方面因素综合考虑，我们认为将要出台的调控政策，将以重申和强调既有政策为主，不会增加太多、太严厉的措施，将加大对于地方政府的督查力度。如果出台新政策，则其后市场会有所降温，主要表现在成交量上面，房价也即重新盘整，上涨势头受到影响。但由于新政策力度不会太大，对市场的影响力有限，预计房价盘整几个月后，快则四季度，慢则明年上半年，仍将进入振荡式的小幅上升通道。

Shanghai enjoysmart real estate, vice President of the institute YangGongXu said，July 7，Premier wen jiabao in jiangsu inspection said：Do not allow house prices rebound。But in the above data，House prices have appeared the resilience of the reason appearance。In this case，The country has issued a new round of adjustment and control policies, a sharp increase the possibility of。But given the growth of economic stability stressful，This time shoulds not be too down the real estate market。Two factors considered，We think is releasing control policy，Will and the emphasis on both policy reiterated that give priority to，Won't add much、Too strict measures，Will strengthen local government efforts to superintendent himself。If the new policies，Subsequent market will has cooled，Mainly displays in volume above，House prices have namely to consolidation，Rising momentum affected。But because the new policy efforts won't big，The influence of the market is limited，Expected prices to several months after consolidation，Fast is the fourth quarter，Slow is the first half of next year，Still will enter the oscillation of a modest increase in the channel。