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　　7月10日，DTZ戴德梁行举行新闻发布会发布《2012年上半年房地产市场回顾 及下半年展望》。会上对2012年上半年全国及深圳房地产市场做出回顾总结，并对下半年房地产市场的走向进行了预测。

July 10,，DaiDeLiang DTZ did release, at a news conference《In the first half of 2012 real estate market review and prospects in the second half》。The meeting in the first half of 2012 to the real estate market and shenzhen to review，And the second half of the development of real estate market forecast。

　　戴德梁行表示，虽然上半年住宅市场整体成交低迷，但信贷调整将助力年中市场出现回温，而当前中央对于宏观经济的“稳增长”政策微调或将惠及房地产市场。戴德梁行认为，下半年深圳住宅市场将延续年中的趋势，逐渐企稳回升。

DaiDeLiang line said，Although the overall housing market downturn clinch a deal in the first half，But the credit adjustment will boost the market appears years back to temperature，And the current central for macroeconomic“Steady growth”Fine-tuning or will benefit the real estate market。DaiDeLiang do think，Shenzhen the housing market will continue to the second half of the year trend，Gradually stabilising picks up。

　　上半年住宅市场整体成交低迷 Housing market downturn in the first half of the whole deal

　　随着去年来房地产市场调控对商品住宅市场影响逐渐深化，投资性需求和部分改善性需求受到抑制同时，刚需客户观望态度导致市场成交陷入低迷。今年前5个月，全国商品住宅成交量低位徘徊，月均成交量更是进一步下降至5,111.6万平方米，较去年月均水平减少37%。同样，作为楼市调控重点城市之一的深圳商品住宅市场也陷入成交低迷期，2011年深圳一二手商品住宅共成交813.43万平方米，同比2010年大幅减少34.22%；而2012年上半年一二手商品住宅成交量继续同比大幅减少43.66%，为308.16万平方米。

As to the real estate market last year controls for commodity residential market effect on gradually deepened，The investment demand and part is restrained and sexual needs to improve，Just need to customers on the fence to clinch a deal the market downturn。The first five months of this year，The national commodity residential house low volume wandering，The average monthly turnover is further down to 5,1.116 million square meters，Last year the average monthly level is reduced by 37%。The same，As one of the key cities for the control of the property market in shenzhen commodity residential market is in clinch a deal the downturn，In 2011, shenzhen one second-hand commodity residential house clinch a deal with 8.1343 million square meters，Compared with 2010 slashed by 34.22%；And in the first half of 2012, the volume of a second-hand commodity residential house continue to sharply reduce 43.66% year-on-year，For 3.0816 million square meters。

　　商品住宅去化速度放缓使得市场上积压的库存逐渐增多，2011年全国商品住宅待售面积同比增长35.8%，达到1.69亿平方米；而2012年前5个月，住宅待售面积更是接近2亿平方米，较上年同期增长43.7%。较大的库存意味市场处于供过于求的疲软状态，同时也影响房企的资金链状况，可以预见后续市场仍然存在较大的去化压力。

The commodity residential house to slow that makes the market on the backlog of inventory increase gradually，In 2011 the national commodity residential house for sale area is up 35.8%，Up to 169 million square meters；2012 years ago and 5 months，Residential area is close to 200 million square meters for sale，A 43.7% year-on-year increase。The larger of the stock market is that the weakness of the state supply exceeds demand，But also affects the room of the enterprises in capital chain，Can foresee the follow-up market still there is greater pressure to change。

　　信贷调整助年中市场回温 Credit adjustment help years market back to temperature

　　戴德梁行表示，尽管成交整体保持低位，但上半年连续两次的“降准”以及接踵而至的两次“降息”，部分地方政府在公积金贷款、购房补贴、减免税费等方面的微调都对刚需释放提供支持，加之此前价格的实质性下调都促使压抑已久的刚需客户逐步入市，令市场于年中呈现企稳迹象——5、6月份，一二线重点城市的商品住宅成交量增长明显，部分城市甚至出现价格回调上扬。

DaiDeLiang line said，Although clinch a deal the whole stay low，But in the first half of the two consecutive“Drop must”And the ensuing two times“Cut interest rates”，Some local governments in accumulation fund loan、Purchase subsidies、Reducing taxation of just need to release to fine-tune provide support，Together with the previous price cut prompted depressive substantial already a long time of just customers will gradually entering the market，Make markets in years show signs stabilising-5、June，A second line key city commodity residential house turnover increased substantially，Parts of the city appear even price callback to rise。

　　与此同时，年中成交量的回升令到开发商对后市有了更乐观的预期，而基于这种预期，资金状况较好的标杆房企在上半年的后两个月拿地热情提高，积极布局后市。据统计，万科、保利、恒大等15家房企在6月拿地总额超过100亿元，远高于上半年月均69亿元的水平。而一线城市久违的优势地块供应及成交也拉动土地价格的上涨。

At the same time，Years back to developers to the volume of a more optimistic is expected，And based on the expected，Capital condition good benchmarking room enterprises in the first half of the year after two months to improve with enthusiasm，Active layout is。According to the statistics，vanke、poly、Evergrande 15 house room in June to enterprises with more than $10 billion in gross，Far higher than 6.9 billion yuan in the first half of the average monthly level。And a line near the city land supply and advantages of the land price clinch a deal also pulled up。

　　“稳增长”下的政策微调或将惠及房地产市场 “Steady growth”The next fine-tuning or will benefit the real estate market

　　当前为防止经济“硬着陆”，国家确立宏观经济“稳增长”的战略目标，戴德梁行认为，为稳定经济增长，预计下半年投资仍将保持较快增速。戴德梁行表示，尽管投资进入房地产领域仍会受限，但在无法精确监管资金流向的情况下，房地产行业必然一定程度获利 ，且包括基建投资在内的一系列投资也将客观上促进房地产的发展。

The current to prevent the economy“A hard landing”，Countries establish macro economy“Steady growth”Strategic goals，DaiDeLiang do think，To the stable economic growth，The second half is expected to invest will remain faster growth。DaiDeLiang line said，Although investment in real estate will still be limited，But in can't precise supervision flow of capital cases，The real estate industry will profit to a certain extent ，And investment in infrastructure, including a series of investment will also promote the development of the real estate objectively。

　　戴德梁行指出，就房地产本身来看，其上下游产业规模庞大、影响面广，其整条产业链对于国民经济增长的贡献不可低估。因此面对当前经济增速放缓的局面，进一步收紧楼市调控的动力减弱。而此前楼市的低迷已经让地方政府依托土地出让金的财政制度受到挑战，可以预想，部分城市在贯彻中央政策的同时，放松尺度的主观意愿将远远高于进一步收紧调控。

DaiDeLiang line points out that，Is real estate itself to see，The upstream and downstream industry large scale、Wide influence surface.the，The article for the growth of national economy of the industrial chain contribution cannot be underestimated。So in the current economic slowdown in the situation，Further tightening regulation of the property market power decrease。Previously the property market downturn has let the local government relying on the land grant fee financial system challenged，Can be expected，Parts of the city in the implementation of the policy at the same time，Relax the scale of subjective will will be far higher than further tightening control。

　　另外，中央三令五申“坚持房地产调控政策不动摇”，从一些城市试图在“限购”方面 “闯关”却均以失败告终可以推断，作为调控底线的“限购令”在短时间内仍难取消。而在信贷政策方面，尽管年内两次下调存款准备金率，释放货币流动性的信号强烈，但针对住房按揭贷款的差别化信贷政策没有动摇，二套房以上贷款的比率及利率均未见松动。戴德梁行预计，年内“限购”“限贷”将令投资及改善性需求继续受到抑制。

In addition，The central SanLingWuShen“Insist on real estate control policy not be moved”，In some cities from trying to“限购”aspects “Stage mode”But failed can be deduced，As the bottom line of control“限购 make”In a short time is still difficult to cancel。And in credit policy，Although two years down the deposit reserve rate，Release the money flow strong signal，But the housing mortgages loan menas of credit policy not shake，The ratio of more than two suites and interest rates are loans did not see loose。DaiDeLiang line is expected to，years“限购”“Limit credit”Will improve the investment and sexual needs to continue under control。

　　深圳住宅市场下半年有望企稳回升 Shenzhen the housing market is expected to rise stabilising the second half

　　DTZ戴德梁行华南及华西区研究部助理董事张晓端认为，在投资性需求继续被抑制的大方向下，一系列政策“微调”利好却为刚性需求营造良好的入市环境，而目前市场呈现出的企稳态势所带来的市场上行预期更为置业者增添入市动力，较高峰时期有所回落的房价也是刺激刚需释放的重要因素之一。

DTZ DaiDeLiang line and south China west China area research assistant director ZhangXiaoDuan think，In the investment demand continue to be the general direction of inhibition，A series of policy“fine-tuning”But good for the rigid needs to create a good market environment，And at present market showing a stabilising situation brought about by the market expected more homebuyers uplink add entering the market power，A peak period of falling house prices is also stimulate just need to release one of important factors。

　　预计在此带动下，下半年成交将继续有所增加，但持续执行的“限购”“限贷”将拖累成交量上升的幅度。尽管如此，成交增长及预期都将削弱房价下调的动力，而房企资金状况的好转也有望提升其上调房价的信心。

In this is expected to lead，The second half to clinch a deal will continue to increase，But continuously perform“限购”“Limit credit”Will drag the range of the rising volume。Even so，Clinch a deal the growth and expectations will weaken the impact of the power house prices，And the housing for the improvement of the enterprise's capital condition is also expected to promote its raised the prices of confidence。

　　张晓端由此判断，下半年深圳住宅市场将延续年中的趋势，逐渐企稳回升。但深圳核心城区的土地供应局限以及外围区域相对集中的物业供应或令各个片区表现有所不同，预计中期库存较大的局部区域仍将面临去化压力。

ZhangXiaoDuan this judgment，Shenzhen the housing market will continue to the second half of the year trend，Gradually stabilising picks up。But the core of the city of shenzhen limited land supply and the outlying regions of the relative concentration of the property supply or make each district performance is different，Mid large local stock is expected to continue to face the area to pressure。