7月18日，统计局发布6月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况，数据显示，与上月相比，70个大中城市中，新建商品住宅价格上涨的城市有25个（上月为6个），二手房上涨的城市有31个（上月为18个）。新建商品住宅价格环比价格上涨的城市中，涨幅均未超过0.6%。

July 18,，Statistics bureau June 70 large and medium-sized city residential sales price changes，Data shows，Compared with last month，In 70 major cities，New commodity residential house prices in the city there are 25（Last month for six），Secondhand the room to the rise of the city has 31（Last month for 18）。New commodity residential house price annulus comparing prices in the city，Or have not more than 0.6%。

　　最近，美国本土48个州中（不包括夏威夷和阿拉斯加两地），约有56%的面积遭遇中等到严重程度的旱灾，这是过去12年来美国发生的面积最为广泛的旱灾，由此导致美国大豆、豆粕、玉米等农产品价格大幅上涨， CBO大豆、豆粕期价指数已经快速上涨，已至近几年新高。

recent，Native American 48 states（Not including Hawaii and Alaska both），About 56% of the area of medium to encounter the severity of the drought，This is for the past 12 years the United States was the most extensive area of drought，This led to the American soybean、Soybean meal、The price of corn and other agricultural products， CBO soybean、Soybean meal QiJia index has rise quickly，In recent years has been to new highs。

　　国海证券(000750,股吧)发布研报认为，虽然房地产环比上涨城市成倍增加，但价格上涨幅度较小。房地产价格环比上涨的的原因主要在于降息降低购房成本、销售回暖带来房地产商优惠降低甚至调高价格，从往年看，在销售回暖后亦往往带来价格的回升。但是从目前价格上涨的情况看，涨幅较小，6月份新建商品住宅价格环比价格上涨的城市中，涨幅均未超过0.6%（主要是杭州，而杭州也是前期房价跌幅较大的城市）。

GuoHai securities(000750,Shares it)Research report issued by that，Although real estate annulus comparing rose city multiplied，But smaller price rises。Real estate prices rising reasons of the annulus is to reduce the purchase cost rate cut、Real estate sales thaw brings preferential reduce or even raise prices，Look from previous years，In sales often also bring warm and prices upwards。But from the current price to rise see，Or smaller，June new commodity residential house price rising prices in the city projects，Or have not more than 0.6%（Hangzhou is the main，And hangzhou is the major cities of the house price declines）。

　　国海证券认为房价也难以出现大幅上涨，政策平稳为主。一方面下半年房地产库存较高，房地产商资金压力仍较大；另一方面限购难以放开，而目前多为刚需购房，房价上涨过快必将抑制需求，反过来抑制价格上涨。因此，国海证券认为下半年政府政策将以“平稳”为主，而房地产商可能仍将继续面临适度让利来加快房地产周转率。

GuoHai securities that are hard to show house prices are rising dramatically，Stable policy mainly。On the one hand the second half of the real estate stocks higher，The real estate business still bigger financial pressure；On the other hand 限购 hard to let go，And now for more than just need to the house，House prices rose too quickly will restrain demand，In turn curb prices。so，GuoHai securities that government policies will be the second half“smooth”primarily，And the real estate business is likely to continue to accelerate the profits to the moderate face real estate turnover。

　　国海证券表示，美国的干旱导致近期大豆、玉米等农产品价格快速上涨，给全球及国内价格上涨带来一定压力。

GuoHai securities said，The United States led to the recent drought soybean、Corn prices rise quickly，Give the global and domestic prices have brought some pressure。

　　国海证券认为目前对物价的压力仍较小，不过短期对部分农产品行业影响可能会更明显。此外，上述事件对国内大豆价格影响虽然较大，但目前全球库存消费比处于近十年高位。国内进口最大的主要是大豆，进口量占全球进口的60%左右，占全球大豆产量的近20%，对大豆的依存度较高。不过，虽然美国因干旱可能出现大幅减产，但巴西和阿根廷作为重要的大豆生产国和出口国，其大豆产量和出口依然保持较快增长，同时，目前大豆的全球库存消费比处于近十年来较高水平。玉米方面，中国进口量很小，对国内价格影响预计相对较小。

GuoHai securities now believe that pressure on prices are still small，But short on part of agricultural industry may influence will be more apparent。In addition，The above event on domestic soybean prices affect although larger，But the global inventory consumption than in nearly a decade high。The biggest is mainly domestic import soybean，Imports accounted for about 60% of world imports，Accounting for nearly 20% of global soybean production，The high dependence on the soybean。but，Although the United States because of drought may face a crop yield，But Brazil and Argentina as important soybean producing and exporting countries，The soybean production and export still maintained a fast growth，At the same time，At present the global inventory consumption soybean than in nearly 10 years to a higher level。maize，China imports is small，For domestic prices is expected to influence is relatively small。

　　国海证券预计7月份CPI同比继续回落至2.9%-3.0%。7月初以来由于高温多雨导致蔬菜价格出现一定上涨，但是7月份食品价格环比上涨具有季节性，目前价格上涨尚处于正常范围内，预计7月份价格环比可能在2%-3%之间，CPI同比在2.9%-3%之间，继续回落，目前物价上涨压力总体较小。

GuoHai securities in July compared to the CPI is expected to continue to fall to 2.9%-3.0%。Since early July, due to high temperature and rainy lead to vegetable prices appear must rise，But in July, food prices rising annulus comparing with seasonal，The current price increases is still in the normal range，Expected in July in November may price between 2% and 3%，The CPI up between 2.9% and 3%，Continue to fall，At present price increases pressure smaller overall。

　　（《证券时报》快讯中心）

（《Securities times》Dispatch center）