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大豆进口商等待美豆价格回落--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-07-13
据贸易商称,因为美国大豆价格徘徊在历史高点,中国大豆进口商推迟采购大豆。中国买家希望在不得不重新入市前美国大豆价格能够回落,以填补今年年底可能出现的供应缺口。
According to the trader,Because the American soybean prices wandering in a record high,China's soybean importers delayed purchasing soybean。Chinese buyers have to hope to enter the American soybean prices fell back to before,By the end of this year to fill the gap may appear supply。
中国是全球最大的大豆进口国。去年年底南美天气干旱,导致大豆供应下滑,因而中国可能进口大豆,以满足九月到十月期间的需求。中国大豆进口量占到了全球大豆贸易总量的60%以上。
China is the world's largest importer of soybean。The end of last year South America dry weather,Lead to soybean supply to slide,Thus China may import soybean,In order to meet the needs of September to October period。Chinese soyabean imports into the global trade accounts for over 60% of the total soybean。
巴西和阿根廷大豆供应减少,意味着加工商只能寻购约600万吨九月和十月船期大豆。而在消费旺季,加工商至少需要1000万吨大豆。
Brazil and Argentina soybean supply reduced,Means and industry and commerce can only look for about 6 million tons of soybeans in September and October shipment。And in consumption peak season,Add industry and commerce needs at least 10 million tons of soybeans。
贸易商称,如果近来美国的旱情再度导致大豆减产,那么今年年底或明年年初中国供应短缺可能加剧。
trader,If recent drought in the United States again soybean crop yield,So by the end of this year or early next year China supply shortages。
虽然周二芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆价格从历史高点回落,但是对于中国买家来说仍没有吸引力。市场仍担心美国干燥天气可能导致秋粮减产。
Although Chicago futures exchange on Tuesday(CBOT)Soybean prices from the historical highs,But for Chinese buyers are still not attractive。The market is still worry about the dry weather may lead to cut foreword。
大豆贸易商称,照目前CBOT大豆价格,加工商根本没有意愿采购,因为这样的价格令他们没有利润。近几周买家采购美国陈豆,在一定程度上弥补了八月和九月船期不足的影响。但是买家仍在等待豆价回落。
Soybean trader,According to current CBOT soybean prices,Add industry and commerce didn't intend to purchase,Because the price to make them no profit。In recent weeks the ChenDou buyers purchase,To a certain extent to make up for the August and September the lack of the influence。But the buyer is still waiting for bean price will fall。
另外一位大豆贸易商称,虽然目前美国干旱看起来非常严重,但是南美大豆播种面积可能提高。大豆加工商认为大豆价格将会回落。
Another soybean trader,Although at present the us drought looks very serious,But the South American soybean planting area may be improved。Soybeans and soybean prices that industry and commerce will fall back。
他表示,如果美国大豆减产,那么全球大豆供应缺口可能超过1400万吨,而需求很难削减如此大的规模,尤其是中国的需求。从九月到明年二月期间大豆供应可能出现问题,随后南美新豆才会上市供应
He said,If the American soybean crop yield,So global soybean supply gap may be over 14 million tons,And it is difficult to cut demand so big scale,Especially Chinese demand。From September to February soybean supply problems during may,Then the new crop of South America will be listed supply
这位贸易商补充说,中国今年晚些时候可能不得不提高加拿大油菜籽进口,来填补供应缺口。
The trader added,China later this year may have to raise Canada rapeseed imports,Supply gap to fill。
由于CBOT大豆价格高企,一些加工商一直在中国港口寻购储备的进口大豆。截止到六月底,中国港口的大豆库存高达650万吨。
Because CBOT soybean prices,Some processors have been in Chinese ports of soybean import look for a reserve。By the end of June,Chinese ports soyabean stocks as high as 6.5 million tons。
分析师称,短期内供应不会出现问题。经过前几个月的大量进口,港口库存依然处于历史最高水平。
Analysts say,The short term supply without problems。After a few months before a large number of imports,Port inventory was still in a record。
分析师还预计北方加工商将通过政府的大豆储备竞价交易会采购更多的供应。目前政府提供的大豆价格比进口大豆更有竞争力。
Analysts also is expected to add to the north through the government of soybean industry and commerce reserve for fair purchasing more supply。The current government of soybean import soybean prices provide more competitive。
行业分析师称,北方加工商对国储大豆更有兴趣,他们可以将低廉的豆粕运到南方,事实上他们已经开始这样做。
Industry analysts say,The north and industry and commerce to the store soybean more interested in,They can be shipped to the south of low soybean meal,In fact they have begun to do so。
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