楼市调控十字路口，下半年何去何从……

Property market regulation at the intersection，The second half of where to go...

　　

新闻回放 News playback

　　温家宝：决不能让房价反弹

Wen jiabao：Never let the house prices rebound

　　中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理温家宝7日在江苏省常州市调研时强调，目前房地产市场调控仍然处在关键时期，调控任务还很艰巨。必须坚定不移做好调控工作，把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策。

The standing committee of CCCPC political bureau、The state council premier wen jiabao 7, changzhou, jiangsu province stressed in the investigation，Real estate market regulation is still in critical period，Regulation is very arduous task。Must unswervingly well control work，The inhibition of the investment real estate speculation needs as a long-term policy。

　　温家宝说，经过多年艰苦不懈的努力，房地产市场调控取得了一定成效。值得注意的是，二季度全国主要监测城市地价出现环比微升，6月份一些城市新建住宅价格出现环比上涨，目前房地产市场信息比较混乱，市场对房价走势的预期出现一些变化，群众普遍担心房价反弹。

Wen jiabao said，After years of hard unremitting efforts，The real estate market regulation has made great progress。Note the，In the second quarter of the main monitoring urban land price appear annulus comparing edged，June some city new residence price appear annulus comparing to rise，Real estate market at present information chaos，The market prices of the trend is expected to appear some changes，The widespread concern about house prices rebound。

　　温家宝强调，进一步做好调控工作，要把握好以下几个方面：一要继续坚决抑制投机投资性需求，防止变相放松购房政策，防止不实信息炒作误导。要把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策。要毫不动摇地继续推进房地产市场各项调控工作，促进房价合理回归，决不能让房价反弹，造成功亏一篑。二要采取有效措施，积极引导和支持房地产企业调整产品结构，增加普通商品房供给，满足合理的自住性需求。三要继续稳步推进保障性安居工程建设，尽快形成有效供给。（据新华社）

Wen jiabao stressed，Work well further regulation，Should grasp the following respects：A speculative investment firm will continue to restrain demand，Prevent in disguised form relax purchase policies，To prevent false information hype misleading。The inhibition of the investment real estate speculation needs as a long-term policy。Will unswervingly to continue to push forward the real estate market various control work，Promote the rational regression house prices，Never let the house prices rebound，Cause failed。Second, we need to take effective measures，Actively guide and support real estate enterprise adjustment of product structure，Add a normal commercial housing supply，Meet the reasonable self living sexual needs。Third, we will continue to advance steadily supportability live project construction，As soon as a effective supply。（According to xinhua news agency）

　　

楼市现象 Property market phenomenon

　　北京、上海、广州、深圳、成都等十大城市综合指数（新房）平均环比连续7个月下跌后首次上涨；十大城市住宅指数（新房）平均环比10个月来首次止跌

Beijing、Shanghai、guangzhou、shenzhen、Chengdu and other ten cities composite index（Bridal chamber）For seven months the average annulus fell for the first time after rising；Ten cities housing index（Bridal chamber）An average of 10 months to November reason for the first time

　　

观点交锋 View aircraft

　　“房价不涨其实就是降，因为居民收入在不断增长，如果居民收入涨了，而房价没有涨，相对来说，房价就是降了调控政策是早已经见底了，政策见底一段时间后，房价才会见底经过9个月的下跌后，房价已无明显下跌的可能，预计下半年房价将以低位盘整为主

“House prices do not rise is actually drop，Because income increased，If residents income gone up，And house prices didn't go，relatively，House price is down control policy is have already see bottom，Policy see bottom after a period of time，House prices to meet with bottom after nine months after the fall，House prices have no significant drop in May，The second half with low prices are expected to consolidation primarily

　　……

......

　　

10大城市住宅指数平均环比 10个月来首次止跌 10 big cities housing index average annulus comparing 10 months to reason for the first time

　　6月，全国各地楼市成交均呈止跌反弹态势，全国100个城市新建住宅均价环比上涨0.05%，结束连续9个月环比下跌态势。成交更是高歌猛进，6月北京楼市成交量同比上涨50.6%，上海成交同比

June，All over the country are tending to clinch a deal the property market rebound reason，The country's 100 city new residence average annulus comparing rose 0.05%，Over nine consecutive drop y/y trend。Clinch a deal is unconventional，June Beijing property market turnover rose 50.6% year-on-year，Shanghai year-on-year clinch a deal

　　上涨30.67%，广州同比上涨25%，深圳同比上涨36.63%，厦门同比上涨211%，成都成交同比上涨47.6%……

Up 30.67%，Guangzhou rose 25% year-on-year，Shenzhen rose 36.63% year-on-year，Xiamen rose 211% year-on-year，Chengdu clinch a deal rose 47.6% year-on-year in...

　　如此大幅度的成交反弹，是否意味着楼市已经开始触底反弹？日

So much clinch a deal the rebound，Does that mean property market has started a touch on the rebound？th

　　前国务院总理温家宝再次强调，“要毫不动摇地继续推进房地产市场各项调控工作，促进房价合理回归，决不能让房价反弹，造成功亏一篑”。是否意味着房价仍未合理回归？房价是否还有继续下行的空间？

Former prime minister wen jiabao again，“Will unswervingly to continue to push forward the real estate market various control work，Promote the rational regression house prices，Never let the house prices rebound，Cause failed”。Does it mean that house prices are not reasonable regression？If house prices have continued the space of the downside？

　　

触底明显降价空间不大 Hit bottom price obviously the space is not large

　　在四川省社会科学院房地产研究中心主任蒋华东看来，仔细分析过去两个月的数据，特别是6月份数据，可以看出楼市已经基本触底。6月份房价环比略微有所上升，同比是有所下降的，成交呈现放量态势，价格应该说基本回归了合理。

Sichuan province in the academy of social sciences, director of the center for real estate research JiangHuaDong opinion，Careful analysis of the past two months of data，Especially June data，Can see property market has hit bottom basic。June annulus comparing prices rose slightly，Year-on-year decline is，Present situation y109.52 to clinch a deal，The price should say basic returned to the reasonable。

　　根据中国指数研究院发布报告，6月全国100个城市新建住宅平均价格为8688元/平米，环比上涨0.05%，结束自2011年9月以来的连续9个月环比下跌态势，并出现小幅微涨。

According to the index academy report released，June in over 100 cities new residence average price for 8688 yuan/m2，Annulus comparing rose 0.05%，End since September 2011 nine consecutive drop y/y trend，Mild and closed up。

　　在上周举行的博鳌·21世纪房地产论坛上，全国工商联房地产商会会长聂梅生表示，房价连续4个月下跌就差不多稳定了，6月住宅价格筑底态势明显。数据显示，2012年5月行业指数是5.49，房地产行业回到了2009年的最低点。但商品房的销售面积和销售额连续3个月小幅上升，且销售额的恢复比销售面积快。土地购置面积也开始走暖。

In the last week at the boao · 21 century estate BBS，The national association of industry and commerce of real estate chamber of commerce NieMeiSheng said，House prices for four months fell almost as stable，House prices in the June built situation obvious。Data shows，In May 2012, industry index is 5.49，The real estate industry back to the 2009 lows。But commodity house sales area and sales for three months a modest increase，And the recovery of sales than sales area is fast。Land purchase area also went to warm。

　　中国指数研究院的另一个数据也说明了楼市经过长期的低迷出现反弹迹象：包括北京、上海、广州、深圳、成都等在内的全国十大城市综合指数（新房）平均环比连续7个月下跌后首次上涨；十大城市住宅指数（新房）平均环比10个月来首次止跌。

China index academy of another data also showed the property market after a long slump rebounded signs：Including Beijing、Shanghai、guangzhou、shenzhen、Chengdu, the national ten cities composite index（Bridal chamber）For seven months the average annulus fell for the first time after rising；Ten cities housing index（Bridal chamber）An average of 10 months to November reason for the first time。

　　连续下跌后的数据回升，让业内看到了楼市转暖的迹象。正合地产总经理毛勇认为，目前看来，房价筑底还是比较明显，虽然房价降幅可能没有老百姓想象的那么大。但房价不涨其实就是降，因为居民收入在不断增长，如果居民收入涨了，而房价没有涨，相对来说，房价就是降了。

After continuous drop the data to bounce back，Let the industry see the signs of warm property market。Real estate MaoYong think general manager is close，Now it looks，Build the house prices or more apparent，Although house prices decline may not have the common people imagination of so big。But house prices do not rise is actually drop，Because income increased，If residents income gone up，And house prices didn't go，relatively，House price is reasonable。

　　

调控不放松再出新政可能性不大 Don't relax the regulation again New Deal is unlikely

　　虽然从各种数据来看，业内普遍认为，房价已经到了此轮楼市调控的最低点，再度大幅降价的可能性已经很小。不过，日前国务院总理温家宝再次强调，“要毫不动摇地继续推进房地产市场各项调控工作，促进房价合理回归”，在业内引起了一场房价是否已经合理回归的讨论。

Although from all kinds of data to see，The general thought，House prices have reached this round of market regulation low，Another big price cut the possibility is very small。but，Has the state council premier wen jiabao again，“Will unswervingly to continue to push forward the real estate market various control work，Promote the rational regression house prices”，In the industry started a house prices are reasonable regression discussion。

　　在蒋华东看来，楼市已经基本触底，因此可以认为房价已经基本回归合理。中央仍然强调楼市调控的重要性，是在于继续落实调控，并非就认为房价还未下降到位。

In JiangHuaDong seems，Property market has hit bottom basic，So you can think that house prices have basic regression is reasonable。The central stressed the importance of market regulation，Is continue to put regulation，Not that house prices also not dropped in position。

　　毛勇坚定认为，调控政策是早已经见底了，政策见底一段时间后，房价才会见底。目前主要工作还是落实调控政策，因此再次强调楼市调控不放松，就是巩固调控成果。毕竟目前土地、市场、房产投资等都有回暖的迹象。

MaoYong firm think，Control policy is have already see bottom，Policy see bottom after a period of time，House prices to meet with the bottom。At present the main work or implement control policies，So once again stressed housing market regulation not to relax，Is to consolidate control results。After all, at present land、market、Real estate investments are signs of a thaw。

　　如果仔细分析此次温家宝总理谈话内容，就是强调抑制投机性需求、增加普通商品房供给、推进保障房建设三个方面。这些内容

If the careful analysis of the prime minister wen jiabao conversations，Emphasis is inhibit the speculative demand、Add a normal commercial housing supply、Promoting security room construction three aspects。The content

　　本就是此前楼市调控的目标，因此只是进一步强调和落实，再次出台新政的可能性不大。

This is the goal of previous property market regulation，So just further emphasize and implementation，The New Deal is unlikely to come again。

　　对于中央继续强调楼市调控不放松，蒋华东认为，主要还是担心楼市出现大幅反弹。最近宏观经济政策方面有所放松，存款准备金率下调和两次利率下降，更多针对的是实体经济，目前整个经济下行风险仍然较大。但如果让更多的热钱流入房地产市场，未来楼市泡沫可能被进一步吹大，从整个经济来看，还要强调加强楼市调控。

For the central continues to emphasize property market regulation not to relax，JiangHuaDong think，Main or worry about property market appear rebound sharply。Recent macroeconomic policies be relax，The deposit reserve rate cut and two interest rates fall，More about the entities economy，The current economic downside risk to still greater。But if let more hot money flows into the real estate market，The future housing bubble can be further blow，From the whole economy and see，We should emphasize strengthening property market regulation。

　　

房价合理回归后市以稳为主 House price is reasonable return with be give priority to

　　从成都市场来看，随着前期大幅度的优惠措施，开发商都纷纷取得了不错的销售业绩，迎来“小阳春”和“红5月”。随着销售业绩的提升，6月大多楼盘已纷纷减少甚至取消优惠，挂牌价有所提升。前期降价促量得到了一定的效果，和购房者达成了价格默契，后期开发商继续降价的可能性并不大。

From chengdu to the market，With the large preferential measures，Developers have good sales performance，have“Indian summer”and“Red may”。As the sales performance of ascension，June building have been reduced or even most cancel preferential，Listing price to improve。The price of promoting got certain effect，And the person that buy a house prices reached a tacit understanding，Developers continue to the possibility of the late price is not big。

　　统计数据显示，成都6月份楼市成交套数同比上升44.2%，成交面积同比上升47.6%，成交回暖趋势明显。但是相比今年5月，却出现了成交套数和成交面积均下降约25个百分点的情况，楼市成交起伏较大。

Statistics show that，Chengdu June housing cycle of 44.2% year-on-year clinch a deal，Clinch a deal the area rise compared to 47.6%，Clinch a deal warmer trend is obvious。But in May this year compared，But there was a cycle of clinch a deal and clinch a deal about 25% of the area of decreased，Property market and clinch a deal is larger。

　　在毛勇看来，经过前期的打折促销，成都楼市5月的成交量回升到接近3月小阳春的水平。进入6月后，从开发商促销战略上来看，众多开发商的促销手段不再像5月那般疯狂，成都各大楼盘的挂牌均价不断上涨，成为成交量下滑的重要原因。

In MaoYong seems，After the discounts and promotions，Chengdu housing market may volume back up to the level of the Indian summer close to three months。Into after June，From developers promotion strategy perspective，Many developers promotion methods may no longer be crazy，Chengdu each big building dish for average price rising，Become the important reason for the decline volume。

　　这说明目前楼市回暖的基础仍然十分薄弱。市场上卖得好的盘大多是以刚需为主，促销力度较大的楼盘，一旦优惠价格取消销量则迅速走低。因此，开发商后市想要提价的可能性并不大。

This shows that at present market warms up in the foundation is still very weak。The market sell good set mostly in just need to give priority to，Promotion larger efforts building，Once the preferential price rapidly falling sales cancel it。so，Developers market outlook want increases the possibility is not great。

　　其实市场太火爆，对于我们来

In fact the market is too hot，For us to

　　说也没有好处。日前，成都一本地开发商告诉记者，虽然市场有所回暖，但是基础还是比较薄弱，如果大幅上涨，可能还有更严厉的调控措施出台，这是我们不愿意看到的，我们还是希望后市能够以稳为主。

Say no good。a，Chengdu a local developers told reporters，Although market has warmed，But the foundation is weak，If rise sharply，There may be more severe measures to come，This is we don't want to see，We still want to give priority to is stability。

　　蒋华东认为，虽然目前楼市已经基本触底，但是反弹其实很弱，甚至说不上反弹。6月全国100个城市新建住宅平均价格为8688元/平米，环比上涨0.05%，但是同比是有所下降的，因此反弹其实都是相比前期的低谷，后期楼市仍然将以稳为主。

JiangHuaDong think，Although at present the property market has hit bottom basic，But the rebound in fact is very weak，Even can't say rebound。June in over 100 cities new residence average price for 8688 yuan/m2，Annulus comparing rose 0.05%，But the decline is compared，So it's the rebound compared the downturn，Later still will give priority to market stability。

　　

各方论点 Parties argument

　　

不加码表示政策见底 Don't beat said policy see bottom

　　

中国房地产研究会副会长顾云昌 China real estate research board vice-chairman GuYunChang

　　房价在前几个月是稳中有降的，而且现在政策看来，大家共同认为，我也感觉到政策实际上是见底的，因为我们的调控政策不放松、不松动、不反复，但

House prices in the past few months is steady and fall，And now policy looks，Everyone to think，I also feel policy is actually see bottom，Because our control policy not to relax、Don't loose、Not repeated，but

　　是现在有没有加码，三波加一波，不放松、不动摇、不反复，但是不加码了。我们的楼市是政策式的，政策不加码了，应该说政策见底了。

Is now have pyramid，Three waves with a wave，Don't relax、Not be moved、Not repeated，But don't beat。We in the housing market is the type of policy，Policy don't beat，Should say policy see bottom。

　　

应长期抑制投资性需求 Long-term investment demand should be inhibition

　　

住建部政策研究中心主任秦虹 Live JianBu, director of the center for policy research QinHong

　　对住房市场抑制投资性的需求应该长期不变，要让市场明白抑制投资需求政策，无论怎样的政策方向是不改变的，这是合理的住房需求本身就是调控的应有之意。政府在长期稳定的框架下恢复市场自身的运行

To suppress the housing market demand should be an investment for a long time to come，To let the market understand inhibit investment demand policies，Whatever the policy direction is not change，This is a reasonable housing demand is itself to have the regulation of meaning。In the long-term, stable government under the framework of the operation of the market's recovery

　　规律，现在的市场发展不平衡，大家关注周期，下跌后要上升，上升后又要下降。市场短期的涨跌意义并不大，我们看到5、6月份的涨跌意义不大，无论是政府的决策还是企业的决策，要符合市场的规律。

law，Now the market development is not balanced，Attention to cycle，After falling to rise，After rising to decline again。The ups and downs of the market short-term significance does not big，We see 5、In June the ups and downs of the meaning is not big，Whether the government's decision or enterprise decision，To conform to the market rule。

　　

二三季度是购房良机 The third quarter is the opportunity that buy a house

　　

上海易居房地产研究院副院长杨红旭 Shanghai enjoysmart real estate, vice President of the institute YangGongXu

　　接下来，极可能出台细化的调控文件。若如此，则下半年房价上涨趋势将被打断、缓解。但经过9个月的下跌后，房价已无明显下跌的可能，预计下半年

The next，Very likely refinement of regulation on file。If so，The second half is rising house prices trend will be interrupted、ease。But after nine months after the fall，House prices have no significant drop in May，The second half is expected to

　　房价将以低位盘整为主。大约在三季度，多数房地产指标会触底，所以提出二三季度是购房良机。上半年犹豫的购房者，三季度别再错过。

House prices will be low consolidation primarily。About three quarters of，Most of the real estate index will hit bottom，So put forward two third quarter is the opportunity that buy a house。In the first half of the hesitation buyers，Three quarters don't miss again。

　　

收入增长高于房价增长为合理 Income growth for reasonable prices higher than growth

　　

华远地产董事长任志强 Huayuan real estate RenZhiJiang chairman

　　在楼市调控过程中，打压房价不是核心问题，最关键是解决居民的财产分配，目前最大的问题是财产分配不合理。如果居民收入的增长高于房价的增长，那么房价的增长就较为合理。

In the property market in the process of regulation，House prices down is not the key question，The key is to solve the residents of property distribution，The biggest problem is the property distribution is not reasonable。If the income of the residents is higher than the growth of the house price growth，So the growth of house prices is more reasonable。

　　

刚需强劲量价齐升 Just need strong JiSheng quantity and price

　　

高盛集团中国投资管理部副主席哈继铭 Goldman sachs group China investment management ha jiming vice President

　　房价我觉得交易量会上升，房地产交易量会明显上升，因为这种刚性的需求还是很强，并且各地也出

House prices I think volume will rise，Real estate volume will rise significantly，Because this rigid demand is very strong，And also out all over

　　一些政策来鼓励这个刚性需求的释放，但是我觉得房价可能会大幅度上涨。

Some policies to encourage the rigid demand the release，But I think that house prices may be risen sharply。

　　

调控需要长效机制 Control need long-term mechanism

　　

阳光壹佰置业集团有限公司常务副总裁范小冲 Sunshine real estate group Co., LTD. One big executive vice President FanXiaoChong

　　现在刚需是实实在在存在的，是一个真实的需求。当然房地产不能像过去似的，房价暴涨变成一个短期炒作盈利投机的场所，这个肯定是有害的，要

Now just need to be real existence，Is a real needs。Of course the real estate can not like the past like，Prices soaring into a short-term profit the place of hype speculation，This must be harmful，to

　　引导中国房地产健康的发展。慢慢从行政手段走向市场和长效的机制，这样会使地产中国的经济能够有很好的收益。 华西都市报记者邹宇整理.

Guide the healthy development of China's real estate。Slowly from administrative means to market and long-term mechanism，This will make real estate of China's economic can have very good returns。 ZouYu arrangement of west China city newspaper reporters.

　　

温总理半年五论房价 Prime minister wen half a year of five house prices

　　1月31日

January 31,

　　在国务院第六次全体会议讲话中提出，巩固房地产市场调控成果，促进房价合理回归

The state council in the sixth plenary session presented in the speech，Consolidate the real estate market control results，Promote the rational regression house prices

　　2月初

Early February

　　回应民众关切，谈及房价

Response to public concerns，About house prices

　　3月5日

March 5,

　　在政府工作报告中，再论房价

Report on the work of the government，More on house prices

　　3月14日

March 14,

　　十一届全国人大五次会议闭幕后，回答记者提问时称，中国房价还远远没有回到合理价位

11 th National People's Congress, after the meeting closed five times，In reply to questions from journalists said，China's house prices is far from back to reasonable price

　　7月7日

July 7

　　在江苏常州调研时强调，要防止变相放松购房政策，决不能让房价反弹

In jiangsu changzhou research said，To prevent in disguised form relax purchase policies，Never let the house prices rebound

　　（记者邹宇）

（Reporter ZouYu）