“短期（内），改造传统产业、优化投资机构、拉动消费需求就成为重中之重。”在周五 （7月20日）的“2012产业金融创新与发展高峰坛”上，全国政协常委、国务院参事、北京大学经济学院教授李庆云，如此解读宏济经济政策导向。

“short-term（inside），Transform traditional industries、Optimize the investment institutions、Consumption demand will become a top priority。”On Friday （July 20,）of“2012 industry financial innovation and development peak it”on，The Chinese people's political consultative conference、The state council advisors、Beijing university professor LiQingYun economic institute，So has the policy guidance macro economic interpretation。

　　李庆云说：“如果找不到理想的新经济(310358,基金吧)增长点，只能退回到粗放扩张老路，转变经济发展方式只能成为一个空话”。

LiQingYun said：“If you can't find the ideal new economy(310358,Fund it)Growth point，Can only return to old extensive expansion，Transformation of the mode of economic development can only be a hot air”。

　　8%不是增长底线不能重回扩张老路 The 8% is not bottom line can't return to growth--expansion

　　在演讲中，李庆云透露，全国政协常委会讨论这个问题的时候两种观点对比非常鲜明，一种观点认为政府不仅应该实行积极财政政策，而且应该实行积极货币政策来刺激经济回升；另一种观点认为，宏观经济政策不应该走向或者走回双扩张的回头路，积极财政政策应该突出优化投资、着重减税的新思路，货币政策更不应该转向积极。

In a speech，LiQingYun revealed，The Chinese people's political consultative conference standing committee to discuss the problem when two view contrast is very bright，A viewpoint that the government should not only be a positive financial policy，And should carry out positive monetary policy to stimulate the economy picks up；Another argument，Macroeconomic policy should not to walk back to the double expansion or back，Positive financial policy should highlight optimize the investment、Focus on the new idea of tax cuts，Monetary policy should not be turned to more actively。

　　长时期以来，人们都把8%增长率作为中国经济增长的底线，当增长趋于这个警戒点的时候，政府就应该实行扩张性政策。理由通常被认为是如果中国经济增长率低于8%，就业就会出现问题。这个有一定道理，但在中国经济发展的现阶段，问题变得复杂得多了。

For a long time，The 8% growth rate people as the economic growth of the bottom line，When growth tends to this warning point，The government should implement expansionary policies。Reason is generally considered to be if China's economic growth rate of less than 8%，The employment problems will occur。This makes sense，But in the current stage of China's economic development，Problems become much more complicated。

　　现在一些传统劳动力密集型企业已经成为资本密集型、技术密集型行业。很多大型企业和部门需要投入巨额资本，这些投入对经济增长贡献大，对就业增长贡献小；传统服务业、中小企业特别是小微企业属于劳动密集型行业，企业对就业贡献大，对经济增长率贡献小。现在中小企业生存发展举步维艰，政府应该推出多种优惠政策大力发展中小企业。

Now some traditional labour-intensive enterprise has become capital intensive、Technology intensive industries。Many large enterprises and departments need huge capital investment，These investment contribution to economic growth，Small contribution to the growth of employment；Traditional services、Small and medium-sized enterprises, especially small micro enterprise belong to labor intensive，The enterprise to obtain employment contribution，Small contribution to economic growth。Now, small and medium-sized enterprise's survival and development has struggled，The government should launch a variety of preferential policies to develop small and medium-sized enterprises。

　　李庆云说：“当经济增长速度降下来的时候，马上又重回扩张的道路，我觉得是不应该的。”李庆云认为，从转变经济发展方式来看，关键在于如何解决发展不平衡、不协调、不可持续问题，要推进经济结构调整，但是这个调整是一个长期的问题，尤其在短期内不可能培育出一个新兴产业使它成为当前的经济的支柱行业。在目前这种形势下，刺激内需成为稳增长的关键一着棋。

LiQingYun said：“When the economic growth rate of down time，Back the way of the expansion immediately，I think it is not as it should be。”LiQingYun think，From the transformation of the mode of economic development and see，The key is how to solve the unbalanced development、Don't coordinate、Unsustainable problem，To promote economic structure adjustment，But this adjustment is a long-term problem，Especially in the short term may not produced a new industry to make it become the current economic pillar industries。In the current situation，Boost domestic demand a key growth become firm move。

　刺激内需对地产调控必须保持高压 Boost domestic demand for real estate regulation must remain high pressure

　　李庆云在演讲中论点犀利，指出影响消费增长的原因除了收入因素，对于大多数中等收入人群来说，高昂的房价和房租责无旁贷。

LiQingYun argument in the speech contest，Points out that affect the consumption of the reasons for that increase in addition to income factors，For most middle-income crowd，High house prices and the rent is expected to help。

　　对于提高收入，李庆云开出的药方是，首先财政政策要突出减税，去年中央经济工作会议赋予积极财政政策新的含义，改为结构性减税。他认为减税要向中小企业倾斜并加大力度，对小微企业可以实行免税。中小企业、小微企业应该将减税或者免税的一部分或者相当部分用于职工的工资和福利，这样才能较快提高低收入者的收入，缩小社会收入差距，拉动低收入者消费水平。

To raise the income，LiQingYun open the prescription is，First fiscal policy to highlight the tax cuts，Last year the central economic work conference positive fiscal policy gives new meaning，To structural tax cuts。He thinks that the tax cuts to small and medium enterprises to tilt and strengthened，For small micro enterprises can is subject to exemption。Small and medium-sized enterprise、Small micro enterprises should will be part of the reduction or exemption or quite part of salary and benefits for workers，Such ability rapidly increase the income of low-income people，Reduces the income gap，Pull low-income consumption level。

　　李庆云对刺激消费的另一个独到观点是，坚持房地产调控不动摇，促进房价合理下降。中央的政策很明确，就是坚持房地产调控不动摇。但是这个政策没有成为社会共识，政府的调控力度也不够。房地产可以说是现在中央和地方，不同利益群体博弈的一个焦点。李庆云说:“我认为应该坚持对房地产的调控，切不可半途而废。坚持限购政策，尽快征收房产税，解决土地财政问题。现在问题是中等收入者有效需求者难以启动。对于低收入者、农民工，他们必须要靠政府的廉租房、公租房。”

LiQingYun to stimulate consumption another point is unique，Insist on real estate regulation not be moved，Promote the reasonable prices drop。The central policy is very clear，Is to stick to the real estate regulation not be moved。But the policies have not become social consensus，The government's control power are insufficient。Real estate is now say that the central and local，Groups of different interests game a focal point。LiQingYun said:“I think we should insist on the regulation of real estate，Cut by halves。Adhere to the 限购 policy，As soon as possible to impose house property tax，Solve the land financial problems。Now the problem is effective it is hard to start demanders middle-income earners。For low-income、Migrant workers，They have to rely on the government's low-cost housing、low-renting public housing。”

　　对于外界有关刚性需求推高房价的说法，李庆云有着不一样的理解。

To outside the rigid demand high prices pushed the claim，LiQingYun had a different understanding。

　　李庆云表示，“住房刚需”的提法会误导公众，把没有购买力的需求说成刚性需求，进一步放大供不应求的压力，营造房价不断上涨的预期，推动投资和投机购房一浪高过一浪，不断吹大房地产泡沫，危害房地产市场健康发展。

LiQingYun said，“Housing just need to”The formulation of misleading the public，The purchasing power needs no as rigid demand，Further amplification of demand exceeding supply pressure，Build rising housing prices expected，Promote investment and speculative purchase a waves surging，Kept blowing big real estate bubble，Harm the healthy development of the real estate market。

　　“应该讲有效需求，就是有购买能力、有支付能力的需求，特别现在中等收入者，如果房价能够真正有一定幅度的下降，这种住房的有效需求一定会推动中国经济发展。”李庆云说。

“Should speak the effective demand，Is the ability to buy、With the ability to pay demand，Especially now middle-income earners，If house prices can truly have certain declines，This kind of housing effective demand will promote China's economic development。”LiQingYun said。

　　而大力推动新生代农民工的市民化，可持续发展的城镇化，是中国扩大内需的最大潜力所在。“如何定义城市化？我认为城市化不仅是农民生产方式的转变，更重要的是生活方式和消费方式的转变，实现农民真正城市居民化。”李庆云称，研究表明农民工城市居民化最大障碍是住房困难。推动农村转移人口真正融入城市，促进就业、教育、医疗卫生等公共服务均等化，使广大居民共享发展成果和城市文明，是一个需要数十年才能完成的历史性任务，但是现在必须把它提到议事日程上。

The new generation of migrant workers and vigorously promote urbanization，The sustainable development of urbanization，China is the expansion of domestic demand in the greatest potential。“How to define the urbanization？I think the urbanization is not only change the way of farmers，More important is the way of life and change in patterns of consumption，Realize the real city residents of farmers。”LiQingYun says，Research shows that the biggest obstacle to urban residents migrant workers is the housing difficulties。Promoting rural population transfer really melt into the city，Promote employment、education、Medical health equal public services，Make the people share the fruits of development and urban civilization，Is a need dozens of years to complete the historic task，But must now put it mentions agenda。

　　李庆云提出，稳增长是中国经济发展方式转变的重要契机，不过需要抓中其中“城市化”的着力点，而城市化过程中最需要解决的则是住房问题，住房问题解决后，中国的消费能力也将随之释放。

LiQingYun put forward，Steady growth is China's economic development mode change the important chance，But which needs to catch“urbanization”The focal point of，In the process of urbanization and the need to address the housing problem is，Housing problem solving，China's consumption ability also will then released。