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房价指数环比首涨市场大势未改调控仍将从严--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-07-24
国家统计局7月18日公布了70个大中城市住宅销售价格数据,时隔8个月后,70个大中城市里,新建商品住宅价格环比上涨的城市数量首次超过了环比下降的城市数量;同时,6月70个城市的新建商品住宅价格环比平均指数上涨了0.02,也改变了之前下降的走势。不过,从同比数据看,大部分城市房价仍然低于去年同期水平,房价过快上涨的势头总体上被有效遏制。
The national bureau of statistics released on July 18, 70 major city residential sales price data,After eight months after,In 70 major cities,New commodity residential house prices rose for the first time the number of cities of annulus annulus comparing decline more than the number of cities;At the same time,June 70 cities of new commodity residential house price index rose 0.02 average annulus,Also changed before the trend of the decline。but,From up data to see,Most urban house prices are still lower than a year ago,House prices rise rapidly momentum in general be effectively。
分析人士指出,在中央坚持调控楼市以及住房供应充足的背景下,市场的周期性回暖并不足以支撑房价大幅上涨,可以说楼市已经逐渐告别暴利时代,市场各方均应顺势而为。
Analysts say,In the central to control property market and housing supply adequate background,The market is not enough to support the periodic warms up property prices,Can say property market has gradually farewell profits era,All parties to the market should act。
房价指数环比首次上涨 House price index rose for the first time annulus
数据显示,新建商品住宅销售价格环比上涨的城市有25个,持平的城市有24个,下降的城市有21个,8个月来新建商品住宅价格环比上涨的城市数量首次多过下降的城市。
Data shows,New commodity house prices rising city has 25 November,The city has a flat 24,The city has a drop of 21,8 months to new commodity residential house price rising number of city first month-on-month drop more than the city。
更加细微的变化是,6月新建商品住宅价格环比上涨的城市个数比5月增加了19个,是5月的4倍。就短期的市场波动来看,房价在6月实现了一定的反转。
More subtle change is,6 month new commodity residential house price rising city than the number of projects may increase the 19,Is May 4 times of。As for short-term fluctuations and see,House prices in June realized the reversal of certain。
从整体来看,这也是大半年来房价环比平均值首次出现了上涨。北京中原地产统计显示,70个城市的新建商品住宅价格指数环比平均值在2011年10月连续下调8个月后,首次出现了上涨,6月的环比平均值为100.02,平均上涨了0.02,停止了连续8个月的下跌。
On the whole,This also is redeemed to house prices rising average annulus appeared for the first time。Beijing central plains real estate statistics show,70 cities of new commodity residential house price index annulus comparing average in October 2011 cut for eight months,Rising appeared for the first time,In the month of June the annulus comparing average of 100.02,Rose on average 0.02,Stop the eight months of decline。
在二手房住宅价格指数方面,也停止了从2011年8月开始的连续10个月平均指数下调,6月的二手住宅环比平均价格指数为100.09,环比平均上涨了0.09。
House price index in secondhand the room,Also stopped since August 2011 consecutive 10 months average index cut,In the month of June the second-hand housing annulus comparing average price index of 100.09,Annulus comparing rose on average 0.09。
不过,拉长比较周期,从同比来看,6月70个大中城市中,新建商品住宅销售价格下降的城市有57个,比5月增加2个。这显示出大部分城市房价仍然低于去年同期水平,房价过快上涨的势头总体上依旧得到了有效遏制。
but,Spin cycle is,Year-on-year to see from,June 70 large and medium-sized cities,New commodity residential house prices fall city have sales 57,On may increase than two。This shows that most of the city house prices are still lower than a year ago,The trend of overheating in housing prices in general are still got effectively。
价格止跌不改大趋势 Price to reason trends
对于环比价格止跌的原因,伟业我爱我家(博客,微博)集团副总裁胡景晖分析表示,一方面,6月以来宏观经济进入降息通道,在一定程度上影响着市场预期;另一方面,首套房贷利率优惠幅度增大,激发了购房需求积极入市;与此同时,开发企业也推出相比前期更为优质的产品,价格略微上调也在情理之中。在多重因素的叠加作用下,激发了购房需求,使得6月部分城市的房价环比跌幅逐步放缓,或止跌回稳。
The cause of the reason for the annulus comparing price,Cause I love my family(blog,Micro bo)The vice President HuJingHui analysis group said,On the one hand,Since June, macro economic rate cut into the channel,Have influences on the market expectations;On the other hand,The first set of mortgage interest rates increase the discount rate,Inspired the pent-up demand positive market;At the same time,Development enterprises with the compared more quality products,The price rise slightly also in reason。Multiple factors in the superposition of the role,Inspired the pent-up demand,Makes 6 month parts of the city house prices decline slowing month-on-month gradually,Reason or late。
中国房地产研究会副会长顾云昌日前在“北京地产资信20强”活动上说,房价回落一定程度上表明经济形势疲弱,但是房价如果有过多的反弹,则会导致更多的问题“过度担心房价上涨大可不必,从供需等各方面看,楼市今年应该处于相对平稳的发展阶段。”
China real estate research board vice-chairman GuYunChang recently in“Beijing real estate credit top 20”Activities said,House prices will fall to some extent that weak economic situation,But if house prices have too much bounce,It will lead to more problems“Excessive prices can need not worry,From the supply and demand and so on various aspects look,Housing should be in a relatively stable this year of development。”
胡景晖分析表示,楼市宏观调控的大原则不会改变;下半年购房需求总量将逐步萎缩,楼市整体供大于求的买方市场格局不会改变;此外,即便经历上半年的楼市去库存后,相比去年同期楼市库存量依然处在高位,而且下半年更多的房企供应计划要明显多于上半年,所以在去库存的的强大压力下,“降价走量”依旧是大多数房企的必由之路。
HuJingHui analysis said,Property market of macroeconomic control big principle will not change;The second half of the total pent-up demand will be gradually shrinking,The buyer's market supply market overall pattern will not change;In addition,Even if the experience for the first half of the property market to inventory,Compared with the same period last year housing inventories are still in high,And the second half of the room more enterprises supply plan to significantly more than the first half of the year,So in the strong pressure to inventory,“Walk quantity price”Is still the only way of most room enterprises。
房企与购房者均应理性 Room with the person that buy a house shall all be rational enterprise
不过,虽然客观上房价尚不具备大幅反弹的条件,但对于市场出现的价格变化,决策者则不能掉以轻心。
but,Although house prices objectively still does not have the conditions of the rebound sharply,But for the market to appear the price changes,Decision makers cannot treat STH lightly。
顾云昌认为,中国房地产市场正在发生变化,从卖方市场逐步转向买方市场,加上中央大力调控楼市,在这种局面下房企不宜过度追求暴利。房企要跟着形势走,一是要加大普遍商品房和保障房的建设;二是要加快行业创新。
GuYunChang think,China's real estate market is changing,From the seller's market has gradually turned to the buyer's market,Add the central to control property market,In this situation XiaFang enterprises is unfavorable excessive pursuit of profits。To follow the situation room enterprises walk,One is to increase the general commodity house and guarantee of the construction of the room;2 it is to speed up the industry innovation。
远洋地产行政总裁李明表示,当前中国房地产业发生了本质的变化,已经告别了住房绝对短缺的时代,房地产业未来将会经历一场剧变,有可能是半年、有可能是一年,供大于求长期持续,行业增长速度减缓。
Ocean property administrative President li Ming said,The current Chinese real estate industry essential changes happened,Have to say goodbye to the housing shortage of absolute time,The real estate industry's future will experience a drastic change,May be half a year、May be a year,Continuous long-term supply,Industry growth has slowed。
胡景晖同时指出,随着各城市高中低档住宅产品的明显分化以及城市各区域产品的差异化,使得一个城市的整体均价并不能客观反映一个城市的实际房价情况,所以对于普通消费者来说,一个城市的住宅均价并没有太大的参考价值,也没有必要因为整体房价的涨跌、或者个别“地王”拍出而产生恐慌抢购心态。近期有买房打算的消费者还是应该关注区域,关注商品房质量,理性出手购房。
Real house prices of the city,So for the ordinary consumers,A city housing all valence is not much reference value,No need to because the ups and downs of the whole house prices、Or individual“royal”Make and panic mentality to snap up。There has been a recent plan to buy a house of consumer still should pay attention to the area,Focus on commodity house quality,Rational purchase shots。
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