随着全国楼市六月份成交回暖，以及央行降息等利好出现，市场上对房地产调控政策放宽的预期有所提高。现阶段房地产市场对经济增长起着重要的拉动作用，严格“限购”下，要想“稳增长”，必须保证房地产成交量。结合当前经济形势和中央对房地产市场的态度，预期现阶段的房地产调控政策主要以稳定为主，而任何想突破中央调控红线的微调终将成为一纸空文。

As the national property market clinch a deal in June warmed，And the central bank cut interest rates good appear, etc，The real estate market to control policy easing of expected increase。At present the real estate market to economic growth plays an important role in boosting，strict“限购”under，to“Steady growth”，Must ensure that real estate trade volume。With the current economic situation and the central committee of the real estate market attitude，Expect the current stage of the real estate control policies to stable mainly to give priority to，And any want to break through the central control the fine tuning of the red line will be an empty。

　　业内分析观点看来，中国房地产调控已进入深度博弈期，而“稳增长”是今年我国宏观调控的主基调。目前，我国经济增速持续放缓，6月份PMI为50.2%，比上月回落0.2个百分点，当前经济发展仍有下行压力。在稳增长与楼市调控的权衡中，地方政府的微妙心态表露无遗。

The view analysis，China real estate regulation has entered the depth of the game，and“Steady growth”Is the macro control this year advocate fundamental key。At present，China's economic slowdown in growth rates continued，June PMI for 50.2%，A drop of 0.2% than last month，The current economic development is still downward pressure。In steady growth and regulation of the property market in the balance，The local government of the subtle psychology shows。

　　对于目前市场的看涨趋势和成交回暖局面，政府态度十分明确。一方面，对于投资投机性需求，中央是坚决遏制，坚持限购不动摇。另一方面，在遏制投资投机性需求的同时，鼓励和支持首套和改善性住房消费，确保刚性需求，稳定经济增长。世联地产(002285,股吧)人士就强调认为，房地产调控的重要目的在于抑制投资投机性需求，稳定房价，而不是打压成交量。近期中央各部委密集表态“坚持房地产调控不放松”，更深层次上是为了稳定购房者预期。目前楼市仍处在调控的关键时期，任何风吹草动均会引起市场预期的改变。

For the current market bullish trend and clinch a deal warmer situation，The government attitude is very clear。On the one hand，The speculative demand for investment，The central is firmly stop，Adhere to the 限购 not be moved。On the other hand，Investment in containing the speculative demand at the same time，Encourage and support the first set and improve sexual housing consumption，Ensure that rigid demand，Stable economic growth。The league real estate(002285,Shares it)People will emphasize think，The important purpose lies in real estate regulation suppress investment the speculative demand，Stable prices，Rather than down volume。Recently the central ministries dense comment“Insist on real estate regulation not to relax”，Deeper administrative levels in order to stabilize the person that buy a house is expected。At present market is still in control of the key period，Any trouble all can cause market expectations of change。

　　中日房地产的根本区别在哪里？

The fundamental difference between the real estate in where？

　　网上流传“房地产崩盘时间表”，显示中国地产走势与1991年日本崩盘前颇为相似。按照这份时间表，中国房地产2011年就该崩盘。

Circulated online“Real estate collapse in the schedule”，Show that China real estate trends and Japan in 1991, before the crash pretty similar。According to the schedule，China real estate in 2011, the collapse。

　　中日房地产看着挺相似，本质也有一定的接近之处，如资产泡沫化推动房地产价格节节上升，房地产成为信贷过程中最重要的抵押品，因此房地产与信用体系、与实体经济血肉相联。目前的中国房地产市场与崩溃前的日本房地产市场相比，无论从租售比、还是房价收入比，都能证明房地产主要成为投资品种，而不是消费品种，因此房地产价格才能脱离收入的约束，扶摇直上。因为大多数人把房地产视作对抗通货膨胀的有力武器，而房地产作为投资品，成为财富重新分配的主要工具之一。所有的投资者都相信，房地产价格不会下跌，是最有保障的投资品种。

The real estate look at pretty similar，Nature also to have certain close to place，Such as assets to promote real estate prices rising turning into a bubble-and，Real estate became the most important process credit collateral，So the real estate and credit system、With the entity economy music-drama.this。The current China's real estate market and the collapse of the real estate market in Japan than before，No matter from rental than、Or the housing price to income ratio，Can show the real estate main become investment variety，Instead of consumer products，So the real estate price to income from the constraint，Soaring in the。For most people the real estate as the powerful weapon against inflation，And real estate as investment，Become the main tool to redistribute wealth of one。All investors believe，Real estate prices will not fall，Is the most security investment products。

　　但是，中日房地产市场有根本不同，原因是两国的汇率政策与宏观经济政策有本质不同。从理论上说，人民币并非自由兑换货币，因此人民币汇率一直在窄幅区间内浮动，全球金融危机后再度与美元直接挂钩，无论国际压力如何，中国岿然不动。这就使得人民币汇率升值导致的资产泡沫不至于在全球一枝独秀。中日房地产同是货币泡沫的产物，不同之处是，中国货币泡沫不会走日本老路。

but，The real estate market have different at all，The reason is the two countries exchange rate policy and macroeconomic policies differ in nature。In theory，The yuan is not free money，So the RMB exchange rate has been in a narrow range of floating interval，The global financial crisis again after tied directly to the dollar，No matter how to international pressure，China kui。This makes the RMB exchange rate appreciation of asset bubbles in not outshine others around the world。The real estate is the product of foam with money，Difference is，China's currency bubbles don't go Japan's footsteps。

　　美国房地产政策的启示

The us housing policy enlightenment

　　美国总统奥巴马在美国亚利桑那州公布耗资最高可达2750亿美元的《住房稳定计划》。第一，放宽抵押再融资限制，允许信用良好的房主向“房利美” 和“房地美”等房贷机构再次申请低利率贷款，以降低他们偿还先前房贷的难度。这项措施有望帮助400万至500万“负责任的”房主实现抵押再融资，进而减轻还贷负担，让他们“更供得起”住房。

President Obama in the United States announced Arizona cost up to $275 billion《Housing stabilization program》。The first，Relaxing mortgage refinancing restrictions，Allow the good credit to homeowners“Room the beauty” and“Real estate beauty”Mortgage institutions such as low interest rates again apply for loans，In order to reduce the difficulty of the mortgages they repay previously。The measure is expected to help 4 million to 5 million“responsible”Homeowners mortgage refinancing realization，Thus alleviate owing on the loan burden，Let them“More afford”housing。

　　第二，鼓励房贷机构减“月供”。这项措施主要针对那些背负次级抵押贷款的房主。在当前的情况下，这些靠次贷购房的中低收入房主陷入困境，一些家庭每月须偿还的住房贷款已占全家月收入的40%甚至50%。这项政策鼓励贷款机构为这部分房主降低月还贷额。如果贷款机构同意调整贷款，将房主的月还贷额所占收入比例降至38%以下，那么政府将对这些贷款机构提供“补助”，帮助把上述比例再降至 31%。这项措施将惠及300万至400万房主，同时也有助于稳定房市乃至整体经济。而这些项目的支出将完全用于那些确实需要帮助的房主，不会提供给地产投机商和房地产开发商。

The second，Encourage reduced mortgage institutions“The month for the”。The major measures for those who bear the owner of subprime mortgages。In the current situation，These rely on subprime buying low-income homeowners in trouble，Some families must pay a month of housing loan have accounted for 40% of the whole family income or even 50%。The policy to encourage lending institutions for this part of the homeowners a reduce a month。If lenders agree to adjust loans，Will the owner of a month income ratio dropped to below 38%，So the government will provide for these lending institutions“subsidies”，Help the above proportion to drop to 31%。The measure would help up to 3 million to 4 million homeowners，At the same time also help stabilize the housing market and even the whole economy。And these project spending will be used solely for those who really need help homeowners，Would not provide real estate speculators and real estate developers。

　　第三，是为政府加大对两大房贷机构“房利美”和“房地美”的注资，目的是将房屋抵押贷款利率维持在低水平，鼓励中产阶级家庭继续购房，提振市场信心。

The third，For the government to increase is two big mortgage institutions“Room the beauty”and“Real estate beauty”Injection of，Purpose is to a home mortgage rates at the low level，Encourage middle class families continue to the house，Boost confidence。

　　第四，对于那些没有责任感的房屋购买者、肆无忌惮的房地产贷款商、见利忘义的投资者完全排除在这次《房屋稳定计划》之外。

The fourth，For those who do not have sense of responsibility of home buyers、The unscrupulous real estate loan company、The investors to completely rule out forgotting in this《Housing stabilization program》outside。

　　一般来说，尽管美国次贷危机根源是多方面的，但其核心就是房地产泡沫导致的结果。因此，美国的《房地产稳定计划》是要救房地产，但是对吹大房地产泡沫的任何因素或政策都不鼓励，反之房地产市场恢复过程中仍然要严格的限制。比如说，美国房地产救市要救的是购买住房居民，帮助他们降低购买住房的成本，帮助他们降低购买住房每月的负担。而对于住房炒作者、投机者等一个都不救。

Generally speaking，Although the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis root is multifaceted，But its core is the result of the real estate bubble。so，The United States《Real estate stability plan》To deliver real estate，But to blow any of the real estate bubble factors or policy not to encourage，And the real estate market in the process of recovery still strict restriction。For example，The U.S. real estate help city to save is buy housing residents，Help them reduce the cost of housing purchases，Help them reduce the burden of the monthly housing purchases。And ChaoZuoZhe to housing、Speculators, etc all do not save。

　　在当前全球经济出现周期性调整过程中，房地产市场不进行周期性调整是不可能的。谁都无法阻止这次房地产市场的周期性调整。尽管一些地方政府出台了一系列救市政策，但是这些政策只能延后房地产调整的周期性，让房地产周期性调整时间拉长，但是，决不可能阻止这种房地产市场周期性调整。

In the current global economic appear in the process of periodic adjustment，Real estate market for periodic adjustment is impossible。Who is able to prevent the real estate market of periodic adjustments。Although some local government has issued a series of help city policy，But these policies can only delayed the periodicity of real estate adjustment，Let the real estate periodic adjust time spin，but，Never stop this real estate market periodic adjustments。

　　稳楼市关键在稳预期

Stability property market in steady key expected

　　尽管楼市成交“有冷有热”，但购房者的预期正在发生变化，许多购房者重新陷入买与等的纠结选择之中，并逐渐偏向于出手。专家表示，当前亟须稳定购房者预期，防止调控成果因为购房者预期反转而前功尽弃。

Although property market clinch a deal“Have cold are hot”，But expectations of the person that buy a house is changing，Many buyers back into buy and etc realm of choice，And gradually tends to make moves。Experts say，The current stable the person that buy a house is expected，Prevent control results because the person that buy a house is expected to upset the applecart against。

　　楼市调控可能是未来一个时期房企不得不面对的现实；另一方面，一些开发商一再“造势”，传言调控政策软化，房价将回升，很多购房者听信其言，预期改变，并真实反映在楼市成交上。当前关键是要稳定公众的预期，要对出现的“稳增长”就是“稳楼市”的传言及时予以澄清，并监督地方政府从严执行楼市调控政策，让公众对楼市调控有稳定、较长期的预期。

Property market regulation may be a future period room enterprises have to face reality；On the other hand，Some developers repeatedly“ascribed”，Rumours soften control policies，House prices will go back up，A lot of the person that buy a house first hearing，Expected change，And truly reflect the housing clinch a deal。The key is to stabilize the public's expectations，To appear“Steady growth”is“Stability property market”The rumours of clarification on a timely basis，And supervision of the local government strictly execute property market adjustment and control policies，Let the public about the housing regulation have stable、A long-term expectations。

　　值得关注的是，国务院总理温家宝近期在江苏常州市调研时强调，要毫不动摇地继续推进房地产市场各项调控工作，促进房价合理回归，绝不能让房价反弹，造成功亏一篑。靳文博综合整理

There is concern，Prime minister wen jiabao recently in jiangsu changzhou research said，Will unswervingly to continue to push forward the real estate market various control work，Promote the rational regression house prices，Never let a house prices rebound，Cause failed。JinWenBo comprehensive consolidation