“已经过去的房地产黄金十年，泡沫是非常严重的”，一开场南京大学商学院高波教授便对逝去的中国楼市下了如此定论，目前的中国房地产市场正在这个过程中经历体制转型，而且也只有转型房地产才有可能健康发展下去。

“The passing of real estate golden decade，Bubble is very serious”，Nanjing university business school GaoBo opening a professor of gone China property market and the so the conclusion，The current China's real estate market is the process experience system transformation，But only the transformation to the healthy development of the real estate may go down。

　　他认为，中国房地产业发展的环境并没有发生本质变化，中国经济增长“去房地产化”是不现实的，“过去黄金十年当中，在所有产业里面发展最快最好、老百姓受益最多的便是房地产，去年房地产开发投资实际增长了21%，在全国GDP增长的9个百分点中房地产贡献很大，尽管未来一些高科技产业有很大发展空间但要想成为中国支柱产业依然很难做到，可以肯定的说未来十年中国房地产依然处于非常重要的位置，现实的城市化需求将使房地产下一个十年更加辉煌。【高波：上一个房地产黄金十年泡沫严重 需要促进体制转型】

He thinks，China of the development of real estate industry environment and not happened essence changes，China's economic growth“To the real estate”Is not realistic，“In the past ten years gold，In all industries with the fastest and healthiest development inside、Common people is the most benefit from real estate，Last year, investment in real estate development real growth of 21%，In the national GDP growth of 9% of the great contributions in real estate，Although the future some high-tech industry have very big development space but to become a pillar industry of China are hard to do it，To be sure that the ten years China's real estate is still in a very important position，The reality of the urbanization will make real estate needs another ten years more brilliant。【GaoBo：On a real estate golden decade bubble serious need to promote system transformation】

　　“未来黄金十年面临四个机遇，首先是行业集中度将会迅速提高，品牌开发商有足够后劲扩张，相应的市场份额也会提高”，高波分析，第二个机遇是产业链成熟，未来十年房地产开发将会向房地产副业延伸，也将由过去的成长阶段走向成熟阶段，与此同时房地产行业也将面临着从单一开发到“开发+持有+服务”的多元模式转型阶段，贯穿于开发、设计、建筑维护等环节的房地产服务业将迎来发展良机。

“The future golden decade face four opportunities，First is industry concentration will rapidly increase，Brand developers have enough momentum in the expansion，The market share of the corresponding would increase”，GaoBo analysis，The second opportunity is mature industry chain，Ten years in the future real estate development will extend to the real estate sideline，Will also from the past the stage of growth to mature stage，At the same time the real estate industry will face from a single development“Development + hold + service”The multiple model transformation phase，Throughout development、design、Building maintenance of real estate services will have link development opportunities。

　　高波接着表示，第三个机遇是大交通框架的形成与发展，城际联系也将更加紧密，“第四个机遇就是房地产开发空间的变化，由东部向中西部、大中城市向中小城市和小城镇转移，相对于大城市土地资源的产业、人口承载力，在三、四、五线城市、县城及中小城镇，土地资源尚算富裕，也为房地产开发提供了空间上的可能。”

GaoBo said，The third opportunity is major traffic framework of the formation and development，The contact will also be more closely，“The fourth opportunity is real estate development space of change，To the Midwest by the east、Large and medium cities to the small and medium cities and small towns transfer，Relative to the big cities of the land resources industry、The population capacity，In the three、four、Five line city、The county and small and medium-sized towns，Land resources is still be rich，Also for real estate development provides space may be。”

　　未来房地产业一定要转型升级，那么如何抓住转型的机遇，高波教授认为主要有四点，“向低碳地产转型、商业模式转型、加快房地产融资的渠道与改革完善土地的使用制度。”在他看来，建立新型发展制度就是开征房产税，而前提是先减税提高个人所得税起征点，限地价控制开发商拿地面积，如扬州搞得经济圈就是完善城市土地制度的尝试。

The future real estate industry must upgrade，So how to seize the opportunity of the transformation，GaoBo professors think that there are four main，“To lower carbon property transformation、Business model transformation、To speed up the real estate finance channel, and the reform of the land use system。”In his view，Establishing the new development system is collecting the house property tax，And the premise is to tax cuts raise individual income tax threshold，Limit price control developers give land area，Such as yangzhou make economic circle is perfecting the urban land system attempt。

　　论坛中，李智发布了限购(贷)笼罩下的购房需求变化研究报告，并做出目前楼市价格底部已显现的预判。

BBS in，Li zhi released 限购(loan)Under cover of the pent-up demand change the research report，And a current market price bottom already appear anticipation。

　　“首先，因限购原因，使改善需求的大户型出现累计滞销；其次，限购时间越长，对改善型，特别是超大户型积极入市不利，刚需刚改会在适当时期释放，但是会减少或者忽然消失，第三，随着经济发展，改善需求仍然需要满足，精品户型，精致社区会受到欢迎，只是一味求大的户型设计，其需求增长将遭遇瓶颈；第四，下半年刚需在政策调控下仍会持续，刚改也会持续入市，首改或再改也会入市；第五，价格底部已经显现，但反弹力度不大，价格是否出现持续反弹，主要取决于改善需求的入市比例；第六，如维持目前市场现状，加码政策不会出台，如出现房价持续性反弹，有责任的政府还会出台政策。”李智表示。

“first，限购 reason for，To improve the demand large family is in total；second，限购 time is longer，To improve type，Especially large family positive market adverse，Just need to just change in the appropriate period will be released，But will reduce or suddenly disappear，The third，With the development of economic，Improve still need to meet demand，High-quality goods door model，Delicate community will be welcome，Just blindly pursuing big door model design，The demand growth will encounter bottleneck；The fourth，In the second half to just under policy control will continue，Just change will continue to market，The first change or to change it will market；The fifth，The bottom price has revealed，But rebound strength is not big，Price is a continued rally，Mainly depends on the improvement of the proportion of entering the market demand；The sixth，Such as maintain the present market situation，Pyramid policy would not come，If there is a persistent bounce house prices，The government will also have the responsibility to policy。”Li zhi said。

　　那么未来，限购、限贷政策会取消吗？限购、限贷的取消有没有一个大致的时间表？对此，李智推断，“限购、限贷政策被取消，只是一个时间问题，我们做一个推断，预计最快的时间是2013年年底甚至2014年才会把限购、限贷政策取消，从2010年调控算起，本轮调控将历时四年时间。”

So the future，限购、Limit credit policy will be cancelled？限购、Limit the cancellation of the loan is there an approximate timeframe？this，Li zhi infer that，“限购、Limit credit policy was cancelled，Just a question of time，We do a inference，The fastest time is expected by the end of 2013, or even 2014 years will put 限购、Limit credit policy cancelled，From the 2010 count regulation，This regulation will last four years。”

下页：6 Page 2：6成多开发商看涨下半年房价 Many developers bullish prices into the second half章鱼哥预判房价" The elder brother of the octopus anticipation of house prices"小涨" Little rose"

　　“陷阱？转机？2012年南京楼市务实高端论坛”正式开始前夕，主办方针对在座的各位嘉宾发放了一100多份调查问卷。【62.37%的职业经理人看涨下半年房价 28.4%楼盘欲涨价】

“trap？connecting？2012 years nanjing property market pragmatic high-end BBS”Before the official start of the，For all of you the guest issued a more than 100 copies of a questionnaire。【62.37% of the professional managers bullish prices 28.4% to the second half building in price】

　　现场调查问卷结果显示，第一个问题是“您所在的楼盘下半年房价实施怎样的定价策略”，该问题的有效问卷数量为88份，选择涨幅25人，降价3人，维持原价的29人，暂时不确定35人。即88位参与问卷调查的职业经理人中，28.4%的职业经理人表示下半年所在楼盘房价将实施涨价策略。

The questionnaire results are shown，The first question is“You can in the second half of the implementation of building house prices how pricing strategy”，The problem of the number of 88 valid questionnaires for，Choose or 25，Depreciate 3 people，The 29 people remained the same，Temporarily not sure 35。That is a 88 in the questionnaire survey of professional managers，28.4% of the professional managers said in the second half of house prices will rise strategy implementation of buildings。

　　第二个问题是“根据您的判断和预测，下半年南京楼市的房价走势是看涨还是看跌？”。该问题的有效问卷数量为93份，看涨58人，看跌7人，不好说18人。即93位职业经理人中，62.37%的职业经理人看涨2012下半年南京楼市房价。

The second problem is“According to your judgment and prediction，The second half of the property market prices of nanjing is a bullish or bearish trend？”。The problem of the number of 93 valid questionnaires for，Bullish 58 people，Put seven people，Bad to say 18 people。That is 93 a career of manager，62.37% of the professional managers bullish 2012 nanjing housing prices in the second half。

　　对于2012年下半年房价走势，李智认为，未来房价将小幅看涨。“目前来看，房市的价格底部应该出现了，但是房价很难再被拉升起来，原因是改善型的人群在被限购、限贷的情况下仍然没有能力入市。我们看到房市是由钱和人堆起来的，如果没有足够的钱，信贷政策对这部分人不放松，即使有买房的意愿，但是没有钱，改善人群入市场将很难维持。从今年开始，市场回暖了，但是房价上涨的力度其实不是很大。还有，国家也在监控，如果价格反弹，再出政策的可能性也是有的。我认为目前楼市底部出现了，房价将小幅看涨。”

For the second half of 2012 house price movements，Li zhi think，The future house prices will be a modest bullish。“So far，The bottom of the housing price should appeared，But house prices is hard to be pulled upwards，The reason is to improve the crowd was 限购 type in、Under the condition of credit limit still no ability to market。We see the housing market is by money and sort of up，If there is not enough money，Credit policy of this section people don't relax，Even with the will of the house，But no money，Improve the crowd into the market will be hard to sustain。From the beginning of this year，Market warms up the，But the strength of the rising housing prices actually is not very big。and，The country is monitoring，If prices rebound，And the possibility of a policy is also there。I think the housing market bottom appeared，House prices will be a modest bullish。”

　　龚子桂对李智的看法表示赞同。他认为现在的房地产库存量比较大，若按照目前的银行利息来算，现在买房子不涨价已经是赚钱了。“还有市场马上要出让四十亿土地，在这样的背景下供应在增加，我认为未来一段时间内供需应该是相对匹配的，在供需相对平等的情况下，价格上会有一定的上涨。”

GongZiGui agreed to li zhi。He thought that the present estate inventories is larger，If the current bank interest to calculate，Now to buy a house prices have not is making money。“And immediately the market to four billion land，In this context of the increase in supply，I think the future within a period of time should be relatively matching of supply and demand，In the supply and demand of relatively equal，The price will have certain to rise。”

　　排山倒海、隔山打牛、太极拳、情意绵绵刀、降龙十八掌……2012年上半年南京楼市众多“招数”迷人眼，以铺天盖地之势席卷南京的碧桂园，邀请洋人卖房炒作名置业顾问的各种“哥”及精彩纷呈的大型业主活动频频在南京楼市上演，做好产品的同时更学会“吆喝”！

avalanche、Worlds apart with beef、taijiquan、Say more knife、A dragon 18 zhangs......In the first half of 2012 nanjing property market many“way”Charming eyes，Up to the trend of the nanjing across countless visitors，Invite foreigner sold the name of hype home buyers consultant“Elder brother”And brilliant large owner activities appear in nanjing on property market，Well of products at the same time more to learn“at”！

　　那么在迷雾重重的下半年刚需盘、改善盘又应该以何种营销方式赢得市场，现场专家也来支招。“你的产品能够在市场上引起热销的话，最主要的还是市场需求，当产品供应符合市场需求时必然会引起热销，如果跟市场需求相反，比如市场要的是小户型，你推大户型，就算价位降到最低购房者也不会买账”，高波表示，在产品本身符合市场需求时，不管出招不出招都会卖得出去。

So in the second half of heavy fog just need to offer、Improve plate and in what ways should win the market marketing，The experts also to court。“Your product in the market can sell by the words，The main or the market demand，When the product supply when with the market demand will inevitably lead to sell like hot cakes，If with the market demand instead，Such as the market is the small family，You push large family，Even if the price to the minimum the person that buy a house also don't buy it”，GaoBo said，In the product itself with the market demand，No matter will sell something not move out。

　　“目前市场上的刚性需求基础相对比较大，但它也不是一个无限量的”，新景祥常务副总裁龚子桂表示，上半年整个刚性需求销售占比较大，但它的需求产生是因为限购政策，这种环境下，如果所有人都去开发这个产品，显然一段时间之后便会供大于求，因此透彻研究市场是前提，根据企业情况选择是否以量为主导。

“Currently on the market demand is relatively large foundation rigidity，But it is also not a unlimited amount of”，XinJing auspicious standing vice President GongZiGui said，In the first half of the rigid demand sales is larger，But it needs produce because 限购 policy，This environment，If all people to develop the products，Obviously after a while will supply，So thoroughly studies the market is the premise，The enterprise according to the situation with quantity as the leading choice whether or not。

　　高科置业营销总监夏小虎也对此表示认可，在调控行情下更需注重品质，既然无法决定市场政策那就做好产品，这是一个基础，“另外一个是做好服务，这是房子作为居住与保值的主要保证，加强跟业主的沟通与互动，还有最重要的一点就是产品性价比，给业主议价空间购买房子之后能看到增值的一面。”

High-tech real estate marketing director XiaXiaoHu also expressed approval，In the regulation under the market more needs to notice to quality，Since can't decide the market policies that make products，This is a basis，“Another is to do a good job in service，This is the house as a living and enduring main guarantee，Strengthen the communication and interaction with the owner，And the most important thing is that the product cost performance，To the owner to buy a house after bargaining space can see value-added side。”

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