文/邓海

Article/DengHai

　　尽管跟不少购房者的想法背道而驰，但是楼市缓慢回暖已是不争的事实。

Although a lot of the person that buy a house with own views，But housing slow thaw already is the fact that does not dispute。

　　根据国家统计局本月公布的数据，在今年6月份全国70个大中城市，新建商品住宅(不含保障性住房)价格环比上涨的城市有25个；二手住宅价格上涨的城市达到31个。

According to the national bureau of statistics data released this month，In June this year, the national 70 large and medium-sized cities，New commodity residential house(Do not contain affordable housing)The city has a price rise in November 25；Second-hand housing prices in the city to 31。

　　通常而言，楼市的成交量若持续呈某种变化达到3个月以上，房价就有可能出现趋势性转变。在信贷政策放宽松后，7月楼市整体缓慢向好已无大碍。

Generally speaking，The housing market is a change if volume continued to 3 months or more，House prices appear likely trend changes。In the credit policy easing，July housing market overall slow going well has not matter。

　　自3月份成交回暖后，重庆楼市也开始逐步回稳，不少热销项目开始止跌转涨。

Since march after reverting to clinch a deal，Chongqing property market also began gradually rose，Many project began to turn up reason sell like hot cakes。

　　正所谓春江水暖鸭先知，全国性的地产商们，通过各地楼盘成交信息汇总，对楼市的细微变化更为敏感，而地方政府对总体信息的把握则往往滞后。因此，有不少开发商打起了这样一个时间差，在地方政府尚未上调地价前即已开始大规模拿地。

Is the so-called riverside plumbing duck a prophet，National real estate developers，All through the building information collect clinch a deal，On the property market is more sensitive to subtle change，And the local government to the general information of the master then often lag。so，Many developers to take on such a time difference，The government has not raised in place before the price has begun to give land mass。

　　土地市场的回暖转而又刺激了市场对楼市进一步上涨的预期。

The land market of buoyancy to stimulate the market and to further increases in property market expectations。

　　楼市的整体回暖，给政府调控带来的是进退两难。一方面，再不挤掉房地产中存在的一些泡沫，势必会危及中国金融安全，乃至整体经济的健康发展；另一方面，政府又面临稳增长的问题，并不想将房地产业一把捏死，导致量价齐跌的情况持续出现。

The housing market overall thaw，To government regulation to bring is in a dilemma。On the one hand，Don't squeeze out the existing in some of the real estate bubble，Certainly will will endanger China's financial security，And even the healthy development of the whole economy；On the other hand，The government also faces a growing problem stability，And don't want to will the real estate industry a pinched to death，Lead to price volume together last fall to appear。

　　目前房价走势不是市场机制内生，而是通过新政高压手段打压实现，中国的房地产政策往往是政府在市场与调控之间疲于奔命的结果，而政策往往是短期压力下的产物。因此，通常这些政策犹如猛药，一下便立竿见影，一收又迅速反弹。现在要做的是把握度，非常难。

The current price trend is not market mechanism endogenous，But through the New Deal means realize high pressure，China's real estate policies are often in the market and government regulation between the toes of the results，And the policy is often short-term pressure of the product。so，Usually these policy is like a fierce medicine，A while and immediate，A charge and rebound。Need to do now is to grasp，Very difficult。

　　从6月5日到7月19日，国家相关部委已出现9次表态，强调“坚决不放松房地产调控”。但是尽管整体调控依然严厉，但局部有所调整，例如：今年以来的两次降低存款准备金率及连续两次降息，使得被持续压抑的刚性需求开始入市，激发了增量，部分资金回流房地产的速度也在加快。

From June 5, to July 19，National related ministries has appeared 9 times comment，emphasize“Resolute don't relax real estate regulation”。But despite the regulation is still severe，But local adjusted，For example：Since this year the two lower deposit reserve rate and two successive to cut interest rates，That was last depressive rigid demand began to market，Inspired incremental，Some funds the speed of the backflow real estate also to speed up。

　　因此即便这些部门有再多表态，没有进一步的政策出炉，楼市也依然会缓慢回暖。实际上，中国的房地产市场，也是从来都不缺政策，而这些政策也无不生猛，但最终却因为执行问题没有被落到实处。例如，早在2006年九部委联合发布的"90/70"政策，现在有谁还在实施？

So even if the department had more comment，No further from the policy，Property market will still be slow thaw。In fact，China's real estate market，Also is never short of policy，And these policies can also yield，But in the end, for implementation of is not implemented。For example，As early as 2006 nine departments jointly issued"90/70"policy，Now who is still in implementation？